andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 6z gfs Lol, this is like clockwork, every model has up-ticked the snowfall amounts over the last 24 hrs. Again, with this unseasonably strong deep moisture feed, I don't see any reason why a decent aerial coverage area shouldn't get 1"+ liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 IWX mentions GFS/Euro taken at face value would lead to a once in 15 to 25 year type event at KFWA. Even 8+ would be once in 5+ year event. This is going to be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 :weenie: :weenie: (only through 00z Monday BTW. Still more snow beyond this in some areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Damn, DVN has the point here at 10". Great to see the models still jacked up about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Damn, DVN has the point here at 10". Great to see the models still jacked up about this. Word is the 06z GFS ensembles shifted north again, and the 06z GFS Ensemble Mean is actually wetter than the 06z OP GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Got a little disheartened by the 0z suite, but 6z suite came in hot. Even the GFS is now showing well north of 6" here. Very dependent on these nutso ratios though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 6Z GFS Ensemble Members: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Got a little disheartened by the 0z suite, but 6z suite came in hot. Even the GFS is now showing well north of 6" here. Very dependent on these nutso ratios though. Gefs look pretty encouraging for our area as well, with most members laying down at least something notable around here. The OP probably drops ~6" if ratios are done correctly. Didn't expect this amount of liveliness from the 6z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gefs look pretty encouraging for our area as well, with most members laying down at least something notable around here. The OP probably drops ~6" if ratios are done correctly. Didn't expect this amount of liveliness from the 6z suite. One red flag I just noticed: RGEM's not playing ball. Ends up with a much more laterally moving sfc low which tracks a solid 75-100 miles south of the NAM/GFS track. Haven't made a call for Toronto yet and I'll probably end up waiting until I see what the 12z suite has to say. Unfortunate to have these differences still, now that we have full sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 6Z GFS Ensemble Members: Nice. Quite a lot of 1/2"+ers in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 One red flag I just noticed: RGEM's not playing ball. Ends up with a much more laterally moving sfc low which tracks a solid 75-100 miles south of the NAM/GFS track. Haven't made a call for Toronto yet and I'll probably end up waiting until I see what the 12z suite has to say. Unfortunate to have these differences still, now that we have full sampling. Try making a forecast in central ohio lol. It's basically Americans vs Globals. CMC and Euro give me a solid 8" while the gfs and nam have me on the edge of 2" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BUF not really feeling the crazy ratios... A BLEND OF 00Z WPC AND GLOBAL MODEL QPF WAS USED IN THIS LATESTFORECAST PACKAGE TO PRODUCE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS. THE QPF BLENDWAS COMBINED WITH SMOOTHED HOURLY COBB METHOD SLR VALUES TO YIELDAVERAGE SNOW RATIOS OF ABOUT 10:1 SUNDAY INCREASING TO ABOUT 14:1SUNDAY NIGHT THEN CLOSE TO 16:1 ON MONDAY ALL AS A COLDER AIRMASSLOWERS THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE TO THE SURFACE PRODUCINGMORE EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH PROCESS. STORM TOTAL FORECAST SNOWAMOUNTS RANGE FROM 8-10 INCHES ALONG THE NY-PA BORDER TO 2-4 ALONGTHE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO SO EXPECTING A FAIRLY SHARPGRADIENT WITH THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Trying very hard not to weenie out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR always striving to be.... "Different". It's interesting to note that many of the wfo's, the WPC and HPC are keeping the majority of the precipitation in northern Indiana regardless of the models showing it further north. (I don't think they necessarily side with any models, just go with middle-of-the-road approach - thanks GEM for showing us you COULD go 100 miles further south than the rest) With that, I'm also noticing the cautious nature of issuing warnings going with higher amounts (GRR) and the words that I've read three times or more so far this morning, "possible reverse trends in subsequent runs"... Surprised with GRR choice of a 8-10" WWA... BUT the burn level has been at an all time high for them and especially for wfo's in the last week (NYC), so they can always "play it safe" and non-shalantly issue a warning nearing the start or into the event when everything that's being modeled comes into fruition, if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR issuing a WWA for 8-10" is baffling because I was under the understanding that anything over 8" was an automatic WSW if it was forecast to fall in 24 hours. Granted this will likely be a bit longer than that but still, they're also putting in the possibility for up to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC futzing around as usual. Winter storm watches should be up for the Windsor area. The SWS warning for 2-4" is completely laughable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The only issue i have with the the implication in your post is that every other model besides the NAM shows just as much if not more snow/QPF than the NAM (including the highly praised EURO). If i were JUST the NAM, I would agree 100% with you. And while there's still question about placement, if the trend towards a more rapidly deepening/amped system continues (definitely within the practical realm of possibility), we would be in the sweet spot for the last minute NW shift (ala Chicago with GHD 2011). So like I said, I'll try to not get my hope up for now, but if the positive trends continue for the 12z run, then my excitement will be harder to contain... I think a lot of people are over reacting to the current NWS office forecasts. I agree with their approach (maybe not GRR 100%) and here are my reasons why: 1) Humping modeled QPF is the HUGE mistake and cutting/reducing QPF by a 1/3 is not unreasonable. 2) Seasonal trend is south in the models as we have gotten within 24 hours of this winters storms (though I will note that this past Thursday's little clipper did not have a south trend and was possibly a bit north ended up with mixing issues. Of course I could be just grasping for straws ). 3) NYC ... don't pull off a NYC disaster. The NWS email box will get filled with Hate Mail!! 4) This is still looks to be positive/neutral tilted as it comes through (pretty sure not many of those deliver 12"+ totals in this area). Ukie give me a little hope toward a slightly negative tilt for me but that is a definte grasping for straws for MBY . 5) Dry air on the northern 1/3 is likely going to be a bigger issue than modeled (I hope not but the air mass here is DRY). 6) The storm has not started and it is easy to update and upgrade (most of the public with not have a clue and it is mostly us weenies that will be annoyed ). Okay in regards to GRR: I am ok that they a issued WWA as it gets the notification of a storm coming and they can easily upgrade to a warning this afternoon. IMO they the should not have put 8-10" amounts with a WWA cause now they look foolish (not following WSW protocol and kind of send a mixed message by not following protocol). They should have jut put 4-8" and noted amounts possible around 10" amount near I94. Even then they still should have put the bottom row (or really 2) into a WSWatch. As Harry said ... "Not surprised with whoever that 93 is at the helm.. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 These snowfall amounts are almost stupid. On the realistic side of my head thinking 12" would be a fantastic run but what if Its a record breaking snow fall in the works. Right now I'm giving a 10% chance of this map verifying. What's the largest single event snow for DTX anyhow?? I know 12" plus are very rare off the top of my head... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Writing on the wall.. Few local forecasts now calling for 1-3" for IND area. Looks like u LAF guys will do pretty well.. Amazing how 40 miles can make such a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think a couple of new topics will be resurrected with this storm. The most probable will be the "measure every 6 hours" to get a storm total. This method will likely produce inflated totals above what's actually on the ground after the storm has finished. It will be interesting to see storm total snowfall compared to depth on Monday morning at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 EC posting 10cm accumulations in there Special weather statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 These snowfall amounts are almost stupid. On the realistic side of my head thinking 12" would be a fantastic run but what if Its a record breaking snow fall in the works. Right now I'm giving a 10% chance of this map verifying. What's the largest single event snow for DTX anyhow?? I know 12" plus are very rare off the top of my head... I think the more interesting thing to look at is top Detroit snowfalls and their associated snow ratio. That would give a better comparison to how unusual/common getting a large snowstorm with 17:1 ratios is. Calling Michsnowfreak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 These snowfall amounts are almost stupid. On the realistic side of my head thinking 12" would be a fantastic run but what if Its a record breaking snow fall in the works. Right now I'm giving a 10% chance of this map verifying. What's the largest single event snow for DTX anyhow?? I know 12" plus are very rare off the top of my head...That map would give Detroit it's #2 or #3 snowstorm ever. Not happening, but 13 or more inches has only happened 5 times. Biggest storm ever was a bit over 24" in April around 130 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If i remember right the criteria was 6+ in 12hrs and 8+ in 24hrs for a warning? lol at GRR... I typically try to give them the benefit of the doubt, but this was a huge mistake. And *WOW* at that 06z NAM run. Totals would be approaching 1974 here if that happens... I'll see what the 12z runs do. If one more nudge north happens (amongst all models), I WILL be going all full potato GRR issuing a WWA for 8-10" is baffling because I was under the understanding that anything over 8" was an automatic WSW if it was forecast to fall in 24 hours. Granted this will likely be a bit longer than that but still, they're also putting in the possibility for up to 10". GRR doing this is nothing new. Their graphics and discussions rarely mesh together. Unfortunately, I have lost some respect for their office because they do this sort of thing often. Granted, I'm SURE there are good meteorologists there who are also great people. However, they set themselves up for mocking when they try to be conservative while at the same time warning of the risk. Personally drives me nuts. Why not issue a Winter Storm Watch instead, and then upgrade to Warnings, or go to advisories. Apparently somebody said 9 inches or more in a 24 hour period is their protocol for a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think the more interesting thing to look at is top Detroit snowfalls and their associated snow ratio. That would give a better comparison to how unusual/common getting a large snowstorm with 17:1 ratios is. Calling Michsnowfreak... I'm not positive on any other ratios, but the aforementioned biggest snow was actually slightly less than 10:1... over 2.40" of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not sure if it was mentioned but the SREF plumes creeped up for DTW again. Now showing 13.5 for the mean. Any word on the winds with this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NWS calling for 6-8" for Detroit... and EC calling for 2-4" for Windsor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR doing this is nothing new. Their graphics and discussions rarely mesh together. Unfortunately, I have lost some respect for their office because they do this sort of thing often. Granted, I'm SURE there are good meteorologists there who are also great people. However, they set themselves up for mocking when they try to be conservative while at the same time warning of the risk. Personally drives me nuts. Why not issue a Winter Storm Watch instead, and then upgrade to Warnings, or go to advisories. Apparently somebody said 9 inches or more in a 24 hour period is their protocol for a warning. Like the "other" Harry said, 93 at the helm... Lol Now get William Marino (WDM) in there and he'll clear it all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For the record... Detroit's biggest snowstorms. 1. April 6, 1886 , 24.5" 2 . December 1-2, 1974 , 19.3" 3 . March 4-5, 1900, 16.1" 4. February 28-March 1, 1900 , 14.0" 5 . December 18-19, 1929 , 13.8" Obviously some of the American guidance output would be very rare air for Detroit if it comes even close to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Like the "other" Harry said, 93 at the helm... Lol Now get William Marino (WDM) in there and he'll clear it all up. LOL...exactly! 93 and WDM are polar opposites in their discussions! "93" discussed that there were positives and negatives working for this storm, but of course only mentioned the negatives. WDM is Bill Marino, who I believe is the head of the GRR office. I think he hired a whole bunch of negative nellies to balance himself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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