RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 400-250 mb PV hook at hr 33. Best look yet on this field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1 inch + for most of Chi-metro through H45....and not done yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Southern MI clobbered...spots of 18+ and it's still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looks like a solid 8 to 12" for all of the Detroit area. Do I dare say some 12"+ spots especially along 94? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Boy those H5 heights tank through Sunday into Monday and rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 LOL as much as I love nam, I don't know about the 16-20"+ amounts for S/E Mi..(small spot 20" for TOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow. Small area of 16" for Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 LOL as much as I love nam, I don't know about the 18/20"+ amounts for S/E Mi.. 2-4" is a lock? Lol Anyways everything is in place why not our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow. Small area of 16" for AlekBuried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 2-4" is a lock? Lol Anyways everything is in place why not our area? LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thread how the Pac moisture feed is actually more stout than expected with this. That was pretty evident on w/v today. To add onto this, helps when you have 2-3+ degree positive SST anomalies over a large section of the source region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 IND going with 9-12" for a couple of the far northern counties...not here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 LOT playing it a bit cautious. Funny when 10" is cautious. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 247 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CST /10 PM EST/ THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST /10 PM EST/ SUNDAY... * TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX... PARTICULARLY THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO FROM INTERSTATE 80. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH A CHANCE OF ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 DTX issues watches, going for 4-7" for my area...we shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sort of a baffling decision by GRR to not go with a warning anywhere. Not surprised with whoever that 93 is at the helm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 IWX issues warning. I never thought I'd think seeing 7-11" is a bit conservative! I think many areas in N. IN/SE MI/NW OH see close to a foot with this. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THEN END SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 11 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SOME UNPLOWED ROADS BECOMING IMPASSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 IWX issues warning. I never thought I'd think seeing 7-11" is a bit conservative! I think many areas in N. IN/SE MI/NW OH see close to a foot with this. ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...THEN END SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 11 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. * IMPACTS...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE WITH SOME UNPLOWED ROADS BECOMING IMPASSIBLE. For some reason none of these offices seem to be buying the wetter/snowier outcome outside of GRR ( 8-10 ) who strangely went with that advisory.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For some reason none of these offices seem to be buying the wetter/snowier outcome outside of GRR ( 8-10 ) who strangely went with that advisory.. Yeah, I mean it's not like we're lacking any consistency here. I'll be interested to read the AM AFD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sort of a baffling decision by GRR to not go with a warning anywhere. Wow? Up to 10" in some counties. Still advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow? Up to 10" in some counties. Still advisory. If i remember right the criteria was 6+ in 12hrs and 8+ in 24hrs for a warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HPC has an expansive stripe of a >95% chance of 24 hour snowfall exceeding 8in. DVN to FWA New product issued in the last hour. I will take those odds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Originally from St Louis, the most I've ever seen in one storm is 13" last January. Hard not to get excited for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I am always VERY cautious of model snow maps...I look more at qpf...but if the trends continue its going to be hard to NOT believe we could see a foot plus. Especially since its a 30 hour cold storm. Probably will be some compaction but measuring every 6 hours would easily yield over a foot per nam. And possibly well over. But it IS the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol at GRR... I typically try to give them the benefit of the doubt, but this was a huge mistake. And *WOW* at that 06z NAM run. Totals would be approaching 1974 here if that happens... I'll see what the 12z runs do. If one more nudge north happens (amongst all models), I WILL be going all full potato Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I am always VERY cautious of model snow maps...I look more at qpf...but if the trends continue its going to be hard to NOT believe we could see a foot plus. Especially since its a 30 hour cold storm. Probably will be some compaction but measuring every 6 hours would easily yield over a foot per nam. And possibly well over. But it IS the NAM. The only issue i have with the the implication in your post is that every other model besides the NAM shows just as much if not more snow/QPF than the NAM (including the highly praised EURO). If i were JUST the NAM, I would agree 100% with you. And while there's still question about placement, if the trend towards a more rapidly deepening/amped system continues (definitely within the practical realm of possibility), we would be in the sweet spot for the last minute NW shift (ala Chicago with GHD 2011). So like I said, I'll try to not get my hope up for now, but if the positive trends continue for the 12z run, then my excitement will be harder to contain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The only issue i have with the the implication in your post is that every other model besides the NAM shows just as much if not more snow/QPF than the NAM (including the highly praised EURO). If i were JUST the NAM, I would agree 100% with you. And while there's still question about placement, if the trend towards a more rapidly deepening/amped system continues (definitely within the practical realm of possibility), we would be in the sweet spot for the last minute NW shift (ala Chicago with GHD 2011). So like I said, I'll try to not get my hope up for now, but if the positive trends continue for the 12z run, then my excitement will be harder to contain... its exciting for sure. And quite rare optimism from you! When we were a complete whiff on all models 4 days ago, who would have thought we'd be discussing such things this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 06z GFS take another tick northward. 12-18" for everyone within a 25-50 mile radius of a Chicago-Detroit line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 From WPC snow discussion....... "THE WPC FORECAST REFLECTS THE PREVAILING TREND IN THE 00Z MODELS TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER FORECASTCONFIDENCE IS TEMPERED BY THE RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES THEMODELS HAVE SHOWN ALONG THE WITH DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THEMODELS MAY REVERSE TRENDS IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ExplosiveLow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hot off the press....excellent synopsis by Skipper at IWX. Going with GFS. 8-12 rule of thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.