Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro finally got rid of that ese jog it was trying to do here locally with the heaviest QPF. I would expect watches to at least be moved a tier of counties north locally one could argue 2 tiers even up to I 69 It's still doing the ESE sfc low movement too across MO which I don't like, I mean I'll live with it but get it to go due east and then ENE and I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol Cyclone gradient to kickoff the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's still doing the ESE sfc low movement too across MO which I don't like, I mean I'll live with it but get it to go due east and then ENE and I'd be happy. Yeah it is further west and not as pronounced and it swings out like the rest and lifts ENE eventually which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The stronger/north trend plays well for us. Still a transient shot, but it may mean that the band doesn't start out as far away from us as it could if, for instance, we verify NNE flow at 850 mb instead of NE. And in fact if you look at a dProg/dt of the last 4 or 5 runs of the NAM, you see that subtle-but-not-really-that-subtle shift in wind direction at 850. Great 850 delta T's up to ~21 C at 12-15z Mon too, which would probably be prime time for us, and of course will be better than what you'll be working with up along the WI shoreline. Though of course lower inversion heights and aforementioned transience are limiting factors. And the band won't get much past the LaPorte County line before drying up, so that doesn't add confidence either. But overall I could see us getting a quick 2-4" additional snow Monday morning as it passes through and begins collapsing. Great points, agree with those thoughts. I did notice NAM was a little colder at 850 by early Monday than the globals on the 12-18z runs, but I didn't do a direct comparison since. I think a wild card could be mesolow development which definitely adds to uncertainty with evolution of the band, though I picture a pivoting band too. 2-4" sounds reasonable. I played it pretty conservative for starters in the grids today but would think we'll be trending fairly bullish on the lake effect given the hi-res trends. I didn't think the somewhat marginal inversion heights would hurt the setup too much because the DGZ is way down low so you get strong lift through that thanks to the lake induced cape below the EL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As long as there's not a shift south of the heaviest synoptic band, it wouldn't shock me to see somebody approach that number as long as lake effect doesn't underperform. So some ifs there but could see it happening if everything breaks right. You probably almost feel like you're back east right about now? lol Confession: I've never actually seen 20" from a single event. I managed to miss the best stuff in all of the 09-10 storms. But yes, I feel like I should be checking pressure falls off Hatteras right about now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z GFS Ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow, mean of almost 16" on the 3z SREF for ORD, with one member of almost 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow, mean of almost 16" on the 3z SREF for ORD, with one member of almost 25" Yea... 15.5" mean to be exact, with a range of 6.9"-24.9" All but 3 members are 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mean of over 9" at LAF with a range of about 0.5"-20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Another 0.11" tacked onto the SREF mean now. 1.14" -> 15.0" Spread 0.75" to 1.43". 15.5" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I would imagine the plume has to be maxing out now for MBY.... 3Z for JOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow, mean of almost 16" on the 3z SREF for ORD, with one member of almost 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yea... 15.5" mean to be exact, with a range of 6.9"-24.9" All but 3 members are 10"+ hot damn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow, mean of almost 16" on the 3z SREF for ORD, with one member of almost 25" Dkb lowball is 7.2" with an mean of 13.6". Hard not to be jacked about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What's interesting about the plumes mean is that it looks like it's not too far off at all of what ratios will end up being either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mean at IND is 3.3" but over half the plumes are lower than that, with very few high ones. By comparison, it's a much more favorable spread for LAF with about half the plumes showing 10+ (mean just over 9" as mentioned before) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Already the 6z NAM is digging the wave more across ID/MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is going to be a NAM run worth staying up for. And I mean, who am I kidding? I can't fall asleep right now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That is an impressive/vigorous shortwave trough dropping through the Canadian Rockies there, with a plume of deep moisture clearly streaming in from the Eastern Pacific. Has big event written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Already the 6z NAM is digging the wave more across ID/MT Becomes even more evident by 12 and 15hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That is an impressive/vigorous shortwave trough dropping through the Canadian Rockies there, with a plume of deep moisture clearly streaming in from the Eastern Pacific. Has big event written all over it. Thanks for stopping by with the great analysis. Excited for this event. I'm really not seeing big red flags for Chicago proper. Saw a great post on the NYC Thread how the Pac moisture feed is actually more stout than expected with this. That was pretty evident on w/v today. Good case of the big qpf amounts in all likelihood not being out to lunch. Radar already looking impressive over the southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sort of a baffling decision by GRR to not go with a warning anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thanks for stopping by with the great analysis. Excited for this event. Saw a great post on the NYC Thread how the Pac moisture feed is actually more stout than expected with this. That was pretty evident on w/v today. Good case of the big qpf amounts in all likelihood not being out to lunch. Radar already looking impressive over the southern Plains. Good for the S Plains drought relief too and subsequently severe season perhaps looking at things a little further down the road, although you don't want to contaminate lapse rates with that by the time spring actually rolls around. Seems like everything continues to go relatively upwards as we get closer in. The gradient on the backside of this won't be as impressive as GHD, but as you say there could be some blizzard conditions if some of the stronger solutions verify, which wouldn't be surprising given that look on WV. Also kind of makes me wonder what would've happened had that SW ULL ejected fully and phased with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 cold sector QPF even looks a touch wetter...and spread out through H28 compared to 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Should be a really good run. Wave looks better and it's wetter as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Much better looking V kink to the height field across KS and into the OK/TX PH with more ridging over our area at 24hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 QPF shield with a fairly different angle orientation as well compared to 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sort of a baffling decision by GRR to not go with a warning anywhere. A WWA for 8 to 10" lol ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good for the S Plains drought relief too and subsequently severe season perhaps looking at things a little further down the road, although you don't want to contaminate lapse rates with that by the time spring actually rolls around. Seems like everything continues to go relatively upwards as we get closer in. The gradient on the backside of this won't be as impressive as GHD, but as you say there could be some blizzard conditions if some of the stronger solutions verify, which wouldn't be surprising given that look on WV. Yep, OT, but that's great news for chasers hopefully if NW flow doesn't lock in til May lol. The progression of this system on the guidance was pretty similar to GHD even, models "lost" it far south in d4-d5 then successively trended more N/W closer in. I think the key to attaining near blizzard conditions here will be how much the snow dries out/fluffs up in the latter stages of the event. Even without as sharp as a backside gradient, soundings were pegging gusts AOA 30 kt at the top of the mixed layer Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The tilt of the wave and height field look is so much more improved just from the 0z run. Very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.