Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 HRW-NMM coming in wet as you would expect. This is only through 47hrs. I'm interested to see the ARW. It's precip parameterization is much more realistic in most scenarios (def not in lake effect though). The NMM uses the exact same scheme that the NAM uses, hence it always going bananas with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Heh, moisture trajectories coming from all over the place with this thing, from the Gulf and E Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Heh, moisture trajectories coming from all over the place with this thing, from the Gulf and E Pacific. Do I dare say this has the possibility to overachieve for some? That's a lot of soup feeding up into a very cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In Chicago this week from Buffalo. Looks like a fortunate time to visit. The synoptic storm looks good, but could someone give me an LES primer for Lake Michigan N/NE flow events? What headings result in what banding structures, and where do bands tend to set up? How far north along the western shoreline does LES fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Anyone have hi red unmet? Curious what the max inside the 30 mm contour Ok so while, yes, I was at the bar, I blame this on poor lighting and even poorer autocorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Guess I'm staying up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In Chicago this week from Buffalo. Looks like a fortunate time to visit. The synoptic storm looks good, but could someone give me an LES primer for Lake Michigan N/NE flow events? What headings result in what banding structures, and where do bands tend to set up? How far north along the western shoreline does LES fall? 9 out of 10 times...including this time....the plume will be transient as synoptic moves off to the east. But it can provide a nice little thump along the Chicago shoreline as they pick some bonus hours in the axis of the pivot. As far as the enhancement goes....you will know when it's working into the synoptic as dendrites start to improve quite a bit... NNE/NE is best...for the main plume you will see it start to appear prolly around Milwaukee as the synoptics start moving out and it will slide down the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 9 out of 10 times...including this time....the plume will be transient as synoptic moves off to the east. But it can provide a nice little thump along the Chicago shoreline as they pick some bonus hours in the axis of the pivot. As far as the enhancement goes....you will know when it's working into the synoptic as dendrites start to improve quite a bit... NNE/NE is best...for the main plume you will see it start to appear prolly around Milwaukee as the synoptics start moving out and it will slide down the shore Nice, thank you! I am excited for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z ECMWF digging the northern wave much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro digging the wave more/more ridging across our area through 30hr and is also wetter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will say this.... the coma head feature has been becoming more and more pronounced with each run of the model suites....not exceptionally impactful for MBY...but points further east in N IN and S MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro digging the wave more/more ridging across our area through 30hr and is also wetter.. There was already a band of like 1.2-1.3 total on the 12z run so that might get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Really favorable looking wave on the Euro..sfc low is a bit slower/stronger and WNW at 42hr compared to the 12z run. Also wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 There was already a band of like 1.2-1.3 total on the 12z run so that might get interesting. Images coming. Stand by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Really favorable looking wave on the Euro..sfc low is a bit slower/stronger and WNW at 42hr compared to the 12z run. Also wetter 1" line into your hood. Alek would love this run, 1 to 1.2" all the way up to far northeast Cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1.4 making an appearance from La Salle county to IKK...impressive stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Makes sense with the juicy qpf output, but Euro again has a great track of the 850 mb low for significant snows from eastern IA-nrn IL-nrn IN-srn MI-nrn OH corridor. Based on progged placement of the h8 low at 00z Sunday evening right near CMI, I'd argue that decent defo snows might be able to hang a little longer than the model is even suggesting for NE IL/NW IN (outside of lake effect). The Euro has a really nice trowal look at h7 with the dry slot wrapping from southern IL at 00z to near CVG at 06z Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 snow hi res.gif I don't want to jinx it....but the drought looks to end for cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1.4 making an appearance from La Salle county to IKK...impressive stuff. I tremble to even type it, but with the continuing wet trend, a little push north of the axis of heaviest synoptic snow into the LES belt, and a little help from ratios, could be some 20" totals come Monday afternoon. That would be nothing short of amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Euro finally got rid of that ese jog it was trying to do here locally with the heaviest QPF. I would expect watches to at least be moved a tier of counties north locally one could argue 2 tiers even up to I 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I mean even the NMM and ARW have some 14-18" totals (with ratios) showing up by 0z, and that's with still 3-6 hours of light/mod snow to go in those areas, plus lake-effect/enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I tremble to even type it, but with the continuing wet trend, a little push north of the axis of heaviest synoptic snow into the LES belt, and a little help from ratios, could be some 20" totals come Monday afternoon. That would be nothing short of amazing. Even it's a little overdone with qpf, you're looking primed there. What's your take on the lake effect? Edit: If you posted something earlier, I missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I tremble to even type it, but with the continuing wet trend, a little push north of the axis of heaviest synoptic snow into the LES belt, and a little help from ratios, could be some 20" totals come Monday afternoon. That would be nothing short of amazing. As long as there's not a shift south of the heaviest synoptic band, it wouldn't shock me to see somebody approach that number as long as lake effect doesn't underperform. So some ifs there but could see it happening if everything breaks right. You probably almost feel like you're back east right about now? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nice signal on the 00z IWX WRF Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Even it's a little overdone with qpf, you're looking primed there. What's your take on the lake effect? Edit: If you posted something earlier, I missed it. The stronger/north trend plays well for us. Still a transient shot, but it may mean that the band doesn't start out as far away from us as it could if, for instance, we verify NNE flow at 850 mb instead of NE. And in fact if you look at a dProg/dt of the last 4 or 5 runs of the NAM, you see that subtle-but-not-really-that-subtle shift in wind direction at 850. Great 850 delta T's up to ~21 C at 12-15z Mon too, which would probably be prime time for us, and of course will be better than what you'll be working with up along the WI shoreline. Though of course lower inversion heights and aforementioned transience are limiting factors. And the band won't get much past the LaPorte County line before drying up, so that doesn't add confidence either. But overall I could see us getting a quick 2-4" additional snow Monday morning as it passes through and begins collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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