Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 11 here in Kenosha. On the button. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I wouldn't be shocked to see the WSW or a SA issued further north of the cutoff now... I think they're going to need to add some type of advisory north - especially given the game on Sunday and people going out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not going with this yet. But like I said last night after the Ukie came out. It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us. I think this may be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thinking out loud here but after thinking about this setup, I'd rather have the problem we're facing (marginal sfc temps) than questionable mid-level temps. Sure, neither is ideal, but at least we have room to play with in the mid levels in case the models are underdone. There's not much question here about the main precip type. The big question here is what happens from about 925 mb toward the surface and we'll have to hope that steady precip can help out with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:34 PM, Minnesota Meso said: Not going with this yet. But like I said last night after the Ukie came out. It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us. I think this may be in play. Legit question, what is the air force method? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:23 PM, Thundersnow12 said: snow60.gif oh my.....wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 whats the air force method? It's got 16-20 for most of LOT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Should have full sampling in the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yea. I don't know what the air force method is? But I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:34 PM, Minnesota Meso said: Not going with this yet. But like I said last night after the Ukie came out. It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us. I think this may be in play. What model is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:36 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Legit question, what is the air force method? Not sure how it is calculated, but I have noticed that the results are similar to the Kuchera method when looking at previous. That map from The HOPWRF was at 12z. This is the 18z Nam Kuchera method. http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:45 PM, dan123 said: What model is that? Been a long time since I've seen a good clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 for S & G's created at a 12:1 (for averages sake)....and no compaction (for sake)... KMDW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:36 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Legit question, what is the air force method? Maybe it's in here: http://wx.erau.edu/reference/text/WXElements_TW_01Dec99.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:45 PM, dan123 said: What model is that? HOPWRF is centered around MSP and was intended to be a 15hr model. Since than it has developed a long term look. The admins often times change the 15hr regions to support decision making during major events anywhere in the country. Buy the way it did a reasonable job on the major NE blizzard a few days ago. http://hopwrf.info/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:51 PM, huronicane said: Maybe it's in here: http://wx.erau.edu/reference/text/WXElements_TW_01Dec99.pdf It is on page 68 ... Table 3-8 EDIT: A bit over simplified with ratios. This method ratios will likely be a bit higher than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:34 PM, Minnesota Meso said: Not going with this yet. But like I said last night after the Ukie came out. It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us. I think this may be in play. 16-18" here... one can dream, no? I'll go for 8.5" where I'm at, just north of ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Going high for my call. 11.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:34 PM, Minnesota Meso said: Not going with this yet. But like I said last night after the Ukie came out. It's not out of the question given the strong moisture transport from the sw and the strong baroclinic zone, NE winds over MSP should hold this system further south thus not affecting us. I think this may be in play. First time I've heard of the Air Force method, as well. Seeing the gigantic candy-colored swath of 18-20" come to fruition what be quite the feat, but I'm not sure im convinced. *yay for post #200* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Congrats to those to the north. I-70 from St Louis to Columbus is out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 11:01 PM, Whitelakeroy said: It is on page 68 ... Table 3-8It looks like it's based on surface temperature only, making it completely worthless. There are better methods out there that at least consider the thermodynamic profile.Climatology is probably better than this method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 11:06 PM, Rainman said: It looks like it's based on surface temperature only, making it completely worthless. There are better methods out there that at least consider the thermodynamic profile of the column in which the snow is actually being generated. Climatology is probably better than this method. Yeah ... I just noted in my post that it was oversimplified and this method would be higher than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 11:06 PM, jbcmh81 said: Congrats to those to the north. I-70 from St Louis to Columbus is out of it.I wouldn't count us out yet. Things have shifted south in the last runs in most storms this winter. This is a different setup, but you can keep up hope.Edit: it's also just one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 10:18 PM, IthielZ said: They're pretty rare around here, I'm starting to get excited myself. The potential is definitely there. Just south of here, Cleveland's WFO has the Toledo metro area in the "8 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE" wording in their WSW. Fun to track at the least... Double digit amoutns are relatively common (as in 10-12" amounts). It's getting above 12" that's the rare part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lol lotta faith being put into the clown maps. Nuclear NAM run still to make an appearnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 On 1/30/2015 at 11:06 PM, Rainman said: It looks like it's based on surface temperature only, making it completely worthless. There are better methods out there that at least consider the thermodynamic profile. Climatology is probably better than this method. I must admit, that's the first time I have seen the chart for this method, it does look according to the chart like it's based on surface tiemps, but one has to wonder, have they calculated the average temps aloft for those surface temps to come up to that ratio? All I know is it has done fairly well for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 But the one thing that interesting about the HOPWRF clown map, will it come close to verifying? After all is said and done how close will it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18 to 20 would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 While the RGEM digs the low further south than the NAM/GFS initially, you can see at 54hr that it's ready and set for a sharper NE turn (with the neutral-tilt trough). That's why there's the warmer surface temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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