Quincy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 11:50 PM, powderfreak said: Didn't he just say temps may be running a tad above HRRR/NAM guidance upstream? I haven't looked so have no idea, looking for clarity.Not that 2m temps mean a lot, but 00z obs from CT into SE NY, N NJ and NE PA are generally 2-4F above the HRRR 1hr forecast from 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/1/2015 at 11:15 PM, mostman said: 6.5 And yeah - it was quite deep. Cleaning my vents actually required some planning. Shoulder height snow up against that side of the house due to drifting. so almost 34 depth from blizzard, the way some of these guys measure on here thats 40 inches lol!! but seriously 6 hr measirements put you at or over 3 feet i imagine, now thats epic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 12:38 AM, Quincy said: Not that 2m temps mean a lot, but 00z obs from CT into SE NY, N NJ and NE PA are generally 2-4F above the HRRR 1hr forecast from 23z. You're post reads like an 'anti-messenger' post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 -6C/21F here.... dropped 3 degrees in last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 latest HRRR has that sleet line close to HFD by 9am.. 4" on the ground in most of MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 12:43 AM, Bostonseminole said: latest HRRR has that sleet line close to HFD by 9am.. 4" on the ground in most of MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 thats scary, does hfd have its 8 plus inches by then?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 12:54 AM, codfishsnowman said: thats scary, does hfd have its 8 plus inches by then?? Should be close to 8+ by 9 I would think...I could see this tapering off by noon back this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I posted this in the NYC forum, but just wanted to show you all that I have real time HRRR diagnostic products that should be fun to watch show where the best mesoscale abiding appears in the night resolution Guidence vs. reality Very intense mesoscale forcing near the end of the forecast period in MA http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 12:54 AM, codfishsnowman said: thats scary, does hfd have its 8 plus inches by then??Thats as far north as it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I wish I could see the 18z GFS temp profiles. 12z never takes it above freezing at 800 or 850 (well below both above and below this) at ORH. It seems that the warm intrusion is quite thin. But what do the 18z's say? Also where is the RGEM, NAM, Euro at these levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 12:54 AM, codfishsnowman said: thats scary, does hfd have its 8 plus inches by then?? 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:04 AM, jgordonjr said: I wish I could see the 18z GFS temp profiles. 12z never takes it above freezing at 800 or 850 (well below both above and below this) at ORH. It seems that the warm intrusion is quite thin. But what do the 18z's say? Also where is the RGEM, NAM, Euro at these levels?Warmest 18z GFS at ORH looks like 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 12:58 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Thats as far north as it gets it was creeping north at the end of the run so we would have to see the next HRRR cycle.. bu tI would not worry much about the HRRR at 15 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:07 AM, Quincy said: Warmest 18z GFS at ORH looks like 18z: image.jpg Yeah, looks like it is dryslotted by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:08 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, looks like it is dryslotted by then. Is it up to 10C? Never mind... read the wrong set of lines... still very new at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:04 AM, jgordonjr said: I wish I could see the 18z GFS temp profiles. 12z never takes it above freezing at 800 or 850 (well below both above and below this) at ORH. It seems that the warm intrusion is quite thin. But what do the 18z's say? Also where is the RGEM, NAM, Euro at these levels? 18z GFS ORH at 850 is 0°C and at 925 is -3°C. But at 21z 850 is 1°C and 925 is -8°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:12 AM, 78Blizzard said: 18z GFS ORH at 850 is 0°C and at 925 is -3°C. But at 21z 850 is 1°C and 925 is -8°C. Why the big drop at 925? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:14 AM, jgordonjr said: Why the big drop at 925? Cold air advection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 More like torching of the midlevels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Lol who cares in the middle of a dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:14 AM, jgordonjr said: Why the big drop at 925? The 2m temps go from 30°F at 18z to 21°F at 21z. Thus the cold air is advecting into the lower layers faster than at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Is there really a true slot though? Looks more like lighter rates before CCB tears thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 It is going to dump here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 Are all the models in agreement now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:39 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Is there really a true slot though? Looks more like lighter rates before CCB tears thru LOL--your statement is much more dramatic than what will actually transpire on the backside. 17.2/3 OT--that Dodge Challenger commercial is a hoot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 OT but in my final announcements to my group Friday after ok I gave the forecast saying 6-12+. I finished with a prediction of Seattle 28, New England 24. On the way out one of the students turns to me and says "2-4". I turned to staff afterwards remarking that the kid shut me up...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:40 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: It is going to dump here I think. I think so--I'm also expecting it to be powdery. Maybe I can skip the snowblower again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:45 AM, moneypitmike said: I think so--I'm also expecting it to be powdery. Maybe I can skip the snowblower again. I have no choice I blew my engine last week. Having my driveway plowed would be a first for me. Fluff bomb and maybe I try to shovel the 100' of driveway. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 On 2/2/2015 at 1:48 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: I have no choice I blew my engine last week. Having my driveway plowed would be a first for me. Fluff bomb and maybe I try to shovel the 100' of driveway. Lol. Just let the wind take care of it. Or break out the leaf blower. I think Brady needs to let some air out of his ball. 17.0/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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