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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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Didn't he just say temps may be running a tad above HRRR/NAM guidance upstream? I haven't looked so have no idea, looking for clarity.

Not that 2m temps mean a lot, but 00z obs from CT into SE NY, N NJ and NE PA are generally 2-4F above the HRRR 1hr forecast from 23z.
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6.5

And yeah - it was quite deep. Cleaning my vents actually required some planning. Shoulder height snow up against that side of the house due to drifting.

so almost 34 depth from blizzard, the way some of these guys measure on here thats 40 inches lol!! but seriously 6 hr measirements put you at or over 3 feet i imagine, now thats epic....
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I posted this in the NYC forum, but just wanted to show you all that I have real time HRRR diagnostic products that should be fun to watch show where the best mesoscale abiding appears in the night resolution Guidence vs. reality

Very intense mesoscale forcing near the end of the forecast period in MA

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#diag

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I wish I could see the 18z GFS temp profiles. 12z never takes it above freezing at 800 or 850 (well below both above and below this) at ORH. It seems that the warm intrusion is quite thin. But what do the 18z's say? Also where is the RGEM, NAM, Euro at these levels?

Warmest 18z GFS at ORH looks like 18z:

post-533-0-65223200-1422839261_thumb.jpg

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I wish I could see the 18z GFS temp profiles. 12z never takes it above freezing at 800 or 850 (well below both above and below this) at ORH. It seems that the warm intrusion is quite thin. But what do the 18z's say? Also where is the RGEM, NAM, Euro at these levels?

18z GFS ORH at 850 is 0°C and at 925 is -3°C.  But at 21z 850 is 1°C and 925 is -8°C.

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OT but in my final announcements to my group Friday after ok I gave the forecast saying 6-12+. I finished with a prediction of Seattle 28, New England 24. On the way out one of the students turns to me and says "2-4". I turned to staff afterwards remarking that the kid shut me up...lol.

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