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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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Everything seems on track. HRRR is essentially lined up with 18z NAM for how the system evolves tomorrow morning. If anything, temperatures are currently running a couple of degrees above NAM/HRRR guidance for 23z. That includes SNE and upstream across NY/PA.

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Everything seems on track. HRRR is essentially lined up with 18z NAM for how the system evolves tomorrow morning. If anything, temperatures are currently running a couple of degrees above NAM/HRRR guidance for 23z. That includes SNE and upstream across NY/PA.

Forecasts too warm upstream so far
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Thought someone said the 18z RGEM got the mix line north of the pike? NAM held serve at 18z from 12z. Nothing is winning out or losing right now. Its way to early to make that call.

Your model you swear by is all snow. RGEM was somewhat colder than 12z. Not a lot .. But it's trends that are vital here. 10 miles makes big diff
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Your model you swear by is all snow. RGEM was somewhat colder than 12z. Not a lot .. But it's trends that are vital here. 10 miles makes big diff

 

Yeah I guess I'm not looking at it that closely down to the miles.  The overall picture hasn't changed at all. 

 

I haven't been as impressed with the BTV WRF this season, but it can still nail events.  I honestly haven't looked at it too closely in these synoptic systems.  Its bread and butter is the meso-scale events up here.  I know Coastalwx has been watching it a lot more this winter, so he may have more of an opinion on it.  I mostly use it for upslope stuff, not synoptic storms.

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With these low Dews temps are gonna plummet once precip gets in. There's your temps near 10 north of IJD

 

We'll likely lose some qpf as the atmosphere saturates, but it will certainly cool it down quickly.  Then the big question will be how quickly (or not) the mid-levels warm in the morning.  The essential question with the elusive answer.

 

19.3/7

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