powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Don't see temps like this in a Winter Storm Warning too often. * Temperatures... lows tonight 5 below to 15 below zero. Highs on Monday zero to 10 above. Lows Monday night of 5 below to 15 below zero. * Windchill temperatures... 10 to 20 below zero tonight. Zero to 15 below on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 sorry wiz but i think we are all hoping you fail on this one lol The SREF probs worry me too... obviously getting better north of the MA Pike or so but it looks like the probs for 8'+ and 12'+ are like 50%?...maybe 60%? can't really tell but not really encouraging when looking for widespread 8-10'+ amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Check the map again, Brian. The injustice has been corrected. We're here to serve our adoring public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LOl..enough WIz..stop downplaying this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I have beanpot tickets for tomorrow. Gonna be a fun adventure to the garden at 5pm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LOl..enough WIz..stop downplaying this I don't think he is downplaying. Sounds like he's bringing legit concern to the table (due to one model obviously, but still legit). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow amounts aside, high societal impact especially in eastern locales. High rates on existing deep pack, blowing and drifting, extreme wind chills. In other words Laptop to the ceiling weenie rating. Has Ekster sexted you the picture of our 7 foot tall drift that keeps creeping out of the equestrian farm towards the WFO yet? Blowing and drifting is pretty good around these parts considering all the tree cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The SREF probs worry me too... obviously getting better north of the MA Pike or so but it looks like the probs for 8'+ and 12'+ are like 50%?...maybe 60%? can't really tell but not really encouraging when looking for widespread 8-10'+ amounts Congrats CNE/NNE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I don't think he is downplaying. Sounds like he's bringing legit concern to the table (due to one model obviously, but still legit). Realistic concerns. We'll see what shakes in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 LOl..enough WIz..stop downplaying this I don't think he is downplaying. Sounds like he's bringing legit concern to the table (due to one model obviously, but still legit). these are def legit concerns I have. Trying to do much more of remembering past events and setups and flags that were in place that were either missed or not taken with enough credence b/c other factors were too "exciting" looking...such as QPF. I feel sometimes we all get so excited over QPF output and such and snow maps we forget to look at the bigger picture and look into things with more detail. Bufkit soundings are an incredible tool to use and give a very unique perspective of the atmosphere and is probably the best at picking up on flags and such. One thing I remember from past events, both underperformers and overperformers, has alot to do with omega values, where they are placed and the snow growth zone. How all this seems to be aligned matches well with setups in the past which "busted". So if we have ****ty snow growth and ratios tomorrow it's going to be very difficult to pile up 8-14'' of snowfall over a widespread region...unless we can rock 2''+/HR rates for a good few hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We're here to serve our adoring public. I hope your golf season is spectacular and that it starts before June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Check the map again, Brian. The injustice has been corrected.lolIf the sfc CAD overperforms a bit we may be able to push the boundary a little more SE too. I have a below zero F snow fetish too so I hope I can pull off some -1F flakeage tomorrow. Pretty high probs for 12"+ on the SREFs. Yeah they can suck, but at least they all seem to be on the same page as the globals right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I gotta hand it to wiz, he's worked hard and really puts good thoughts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Classes canceled. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Interesting how close some warm air is. 31f in Old Lyme and 36f in Niantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We probably will see though a narrow zone of some pretty impressive snowfall totals...definite signals for that but that will depend on the exact tracks of the 925 and probably more importantly, 850 low. Low-level lift here will be pretty damn strong and could help to yield better snowgrowth, Plus there will be a surge of stronger VV's at and just below 500mb which could enhance lift as well and get more moisture into the snow growth zone. This is where getting that influx of Atlantic moisture overriding the strong Arctic air to really become beneficial but just not region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Those srefs probs have me at about 75% prob of 12. 6-12/8-14 as I've thought pretty much all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam seems late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wiz, snow growth can definitely be a concern. But the SREF is not a concern. I mean really???? these are def legit concerns I have. Trying to do much more of remembering past events and setups and flags that were in place that were either missed or not taken with enough credence b/c other factors were too "exciting" looking...such as QPF. I feel sometimes we all get so excited over QPF output and such and snow maps we forget to look at the bigger picture and look into things with more detail. Bufkit soundings are an incredible tool to use and give a very unique perspective of the atmosphere and is probably the best at picking up on flags and such. One thing I remember from past events, both underperformers and overperformers, has alot to do with omega values, where they are placed and the snow growth zone. How all this seems to be aligned matches well with setups in the past which "busted". So if we have ****ty snow growth and ratios tomorrow it's going to be very difficult to pile up 8-14'' of snowfall over a widespread region...unless we can rock 2''+/HR rates for a good few hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I gotta hand it to wiz, he's worked hard and really puts good thoughts out. They're like Tip's posts without all the fancy linguistic dalliances. 24.0/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Best I can tell with google earth, it looks like the SNE jackpot will be at the group of hemlocks at the corner of Plantain Pond and Old Plantain Pond roads in the Mt Washington state forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Best I can tell with google earth, it looks like the SNE jackpot will be at the group of hemlocks at the corner of Plantain Pond and Old Plantain Pond roads in the Mt Washington state forest. jackpot.PNG LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I gotta hand it to wiz, he's worked hard and really puts good thoughts out. Thanks! I actually won't be too pissed if I'm wrong either here. This will be more of a learning experience than anything and sometimes to better yourself and become more knowledgeable is to experiment and then you go back and look at what went wrong and what went right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam seems late. We've got it out to 18hr. Looks a little more amped and faster. No big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam seems late. it's warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We've got it out to 18hr. Looks a little more amped and faster. No big changes. Yeah now I have it but only out to 12 but catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Throw it out there Paul. This is what you want to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 it's warmer Looks about the same to me as well (dendrite). Maybe a touch faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks about the same to me as well (dendrite). Maybe a touch faster?yeah...the tick faster makes the early frames appear warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wiz, snow growth can definitely be a concern. But the SREF is not a concern. I mean really???? Not sure what you mean here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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