CT Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 what you got for SW CT BDR I don't have anything since I'm still in PHX. But I did have a chance to look at stuff this morning... I'd say 5 or 6" for them? 7 or 8 probably IMBY before we ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Jack fetishMeh... Even if I do jack (which is low confidence) many areas would be within a half inch to an inch. 13" vs 12"-12.5"I am still thinking 11" here if things land well. Not like 36" 10 miles to my east vs 14" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Me thinks many will be disappointed tomorrow. I'm not all that sure we will be looking at fantastic ratios throughout the entire duration of the system. I wouldn't be surprised if we for the majority we are looking at like 11:1 or so. I remember maybe last winter we had somewhat of a similar setup...lots of Arctic cold in place. lots of moisture overriding the strongest lift but the snow growth sucked...there was only a pretty narrow axis where snowgrowth was maximized. Even when the heaviest precipitation moves overhead and we are looking at the potential for 1.5''/HR ratios the timeframe for this occurrence is maybe 3-5 hours...4-6...this is the window for these rates. Just don't think we pull off these widespread amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 My final call for CT, which is only a slight adjustment down from my thoughts yesterday morning...3-6" south of a line from HPN to PVD...6-10" north of there with a few spot 12" in the hills. Taint breifly makes it as far north as HFD...but there will be quite a bit of it down along the shoreline. The shoreline east of HVN, especially New London county, likely creeps above 32F near the end of the event, but after the bulk of precip has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Updated GYX wit the new data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Bit of an over-performer in my old stomping ground at DVN, and 1"/hr at ORD right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 My final call for CT, which is only a slight adjustment down from my thoughts yesterday morning...3-6" south of a line from HPN to PVD...6-10" north of there with a few spot 12" in the hills. Taint breifly makes it as far north as HFD...but there should be quite a bit of it down along the shoreline. The shoreline east of HVN, especially New London county, likely creeps above 32F near the end of the event, but after the bulk of precip has fallen. If I was in the hot seat today that would probably be my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Meh... Even if I do jack (which is low confidence) many areas would be within a half inch to an inch. 13" vs 12"-12.5" I am still thinking 11" here if things land well. Not like 36" 10 miles to my east vs 14" here Or 4-5" out here. I think things will be pretty uniform for all areas that don't ping. SWFE-esque. Me thinks many will be disappointed tomorrow. I'm not all that sure we will be looking at fantastic ratios throughout the entire duration of the system. I wouldn't be surprised if we for the majority we are looking at like 11:1 or so. I remember maybe last winter we had somewhat of a similar setup...lots of Arctic cold in place. lots of moisture overriding the strongest lift but the snow growth sucked...there was only a pretty narrow axis where snowgrowth was maximized. Even when the heaviest precipitation moves overhead and we are looking at the potential for 1.5''/HR ratios the timeframe for this occurrence is maybe 3-5 hours...4-6...this is the window for these rates. Just don't think we pull off these widespread amounts. I think we know pretty good now--and should know for sure on the 18z runs--how things will be playing. If folks are realistic based on what they show, there shouldn't be surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Me thinks many will be disappointed tomorrow. I'm not all that sure we will be looking at fantastic ratios throughout the entire duration of the system. I wouldn't be surprised if we for the majority we are looking at like 11:1 or so. I remember maybe last winter we had somewhat of a similar setup...lots of Arctic cold in place. lots of moisture overriding the strongest lift but the snow growth sucked...there was only a pretty narrow axis where snowgrowth was maximized. Even when the heaviest precipitation moves overhead and we are looking at the potential for 1.5''/HR ratios the timeframe for this occurrence is maybe 3-5 hours...4-6...this is the window for these rates. Just don't think we pull off these widespread amounts. For everyone, Paul? Or mostly CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 My final call for CT, which is only a slight adjustment down from my thoughts yesterday morning...3-6" south of a line from HPN to PVD...6-10" north of there with a few spot 12" in the hills. Taint breifly makes it as far north as HFD...but there will be quite a bit of it down along the shoreline. The shoreline east of HVN, especially New London county, likely creeps above 32F near the end of the event, but after the bulk of precip has fallen. That's pretty similar to what we're going with as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So the euro is the starting pitcher and the RGEM is the closer. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Updated GYX wit the new data Man, I wish I were by NHZ this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 So the euro is the starting pitcher and the RGEM is the closer. Done. We need a long-reliever after the 2nd inning--the starter's not getting any wins to its credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 A little belknap county hate shown on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 When new BOX map comes out they'll have shifted everything 50 miles north. 8-10 n Ct to pike and 10-14 pike north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For everyone, Paul? Or mostly CT? Probably everyone. I just don't see much to show and support a widespread 10-14'' for such a widespread area. It seems to me so many are basing everything just off of QPF charts and QPF output and model snowfall graphics. Obviously QPF is certainly an important part of forecasting snowfall and such but there is just so much more. Going through and looking at bufkit soundings they just don't seem to be extremely supportive for us to fully maximize this QPF output. Much of the better omega values continue to be pegged well below the best snow growth zone, there doesn't appear to be a great deal of RH within the best snow growth zone, and mid-level forcing isn't (or doesn't appear to be) all that spectacular, especially when looking for some of the higher end totals. I think this all leads to struggling snow growth and ratios will struggle too for the most part. The speed of the system also needs to be taken into strong consideration...the heaviest QPF is only overhead for a short time and can you fully expect to see snowfall rates of exactly 1.5''/HR or higher throughout that entire time? Outside of the heavier QPF snowfall rates won't be that much spectacular so the majority of the snow accumulations will fall in a very short time. I do think we will see some narrow zones where totals could approach 10''...even 12'' or so but not over a widespread area...it will occur in the areas where lift is maximized which will work to yield better snow ratios and growth. I'm pretty much in my own boat on this one but there are too many flags that stick out to me which we have seen with previous setups in which the system disappointed with the exception of those narrow zones. Alot has to right to get widespread 10-14''+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Thanks Wiz. Good thoughts I hope you blow this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I don't have anything since I'm still in PHX. But I did have a chance to look at stuff this morning... I'd say 5 or 6" for them? 7 or 8 probably IMBY before we ping. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Thanks Wiz. Good thoughtsI hope you blow this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Thanks Wiz. Good thoughts I hope you blow this one LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 10 mile tick south would be quite helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 yeah would be nice could go either way really 10 mile tick south would be quite helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 A little belknap county hate shown on that map. 10-14" here Scott. 10-14". Kidding aside. There may be some CF subsidence east of here. As others have already mentioned...that is a monster thermal gradient along the NH/ME coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 When new BOX map comes out they'll have shifted everything 50 miles north. 8-10 n Ct to pike and 10-14 pike northlol 50 miles would put you in 4-6, you realize how long CT is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Thanks Wiz. Good thoughts I hope you blow this one Wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 10-14" here Scott. 10-14". Kidding aside. There may be some CF subsidence east of here. As others have already mentioned...that is a monster thermal gradient along the NH/ME coast. Cape Elizabeth could be in the 20s for a little bit, while PWM is single digits according to more than a few hi-res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 sorry wiz but i think we are all hoping you fail on this one lol Wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol 50 miles would put you in 4-6, you realize how long CT is Ok make it 30-35 then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snow amounts aside, high societal impact especially in eastern locales. High rates on existing deep pack, blowing and drifting, extreme wind chills. In other words Laptop to the ceiling weenie rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 10-14" here Scott. 10-14". Kidding aside. There may be some CF subsidence east of here. As others have already mentioned...that is a monster thermal gradient along the NH/ME coast. Check the map again, Brian. The injustice has been corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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