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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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Me thinks many will be disappointed tomorrow.  I'm not all that sure we will be looking at fantastic ratios throughout the entire duration of the system.  I wouldn't be surprised if we for the majority we are looking at like 11:1 or so.  I remember maybe last winter we had somewhat of a similar setup...lots of Arctic cold in place. lots of moisture overriding the strongest lift but the snow growth sucked...there was only a pretty narrow axis where snowgrowth was maximized.  

 

Even when the heaviest precipitation moves overhead and we are looking at the potential for 1.5''/HR ratios the timeframe for this occurrence is maybe 3-5 hours...4-6...this is the window for these rates.  

 

Just don't think we pull off these widespread amounts.   

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My final call for CT, which is only a slight adjustment down from my thoughts yesterday morning...3-6" south of a line from HPN to PVD...6-10" north of there with a few spot 12" in the hills. Taint breifly makes it as far north as HFD...but there will be quite a bit of it down along the shoreline. The shoreline east of HVN, especially New London county, likely creeps above 32F near the end of the event, but after the bulk of precip has fallen. 

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My final call for CT, which is only a slight adjustment down from my thoughts yesterday morning...3-6" south of a line from HPN to PVD...6-10" north of there with a few spot 12" in the hills. Taint breifly makes it as far north as HFD...but there should be quite a bit of it down along the shoreline. The shoreline east of HVN, especially New London county, likely creeps above 32F near the end of the event, but after the bulk of precip has fallen.

If I was in the hot seat today that would probably be my call.

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Meh... Even if I do jack (which is low confidence) many areas would be within a half inch to an inch. 13" vs 12"-12.5"

I am still thinking 11" here if things land well. Not like 36" 10 miles to my east vs 14" here

 

Or 4-5" out here.

 

I think things will be pretty uniform for all areas that don't ping.  SWFE-esque.

Me thinks many will be disappointed tomorrow.  I'm not all that sure we will be looking at fantastic ratios throughout the entire duration of the system.  I wouldn't be surprised if we for the majority we are looking at like 11:1 or so.  I remember maybe last winter we had somewhat of a similar setup...lots of Arctic cold in place. lots of moisture overriding the strongest lift but the snow growth sucked...there was only a pretty narrow axis where snowgrowth was maximized.  

 

Even when the heaviest precipitation moves overhead and we are looking at the potential for 1.5''/HR ratios the timeframe for this occurrence is maybe 3-5 hours...4-6...this is the window for these rates.  

 

Just don't think we pull off these widespread amounts.   

 

I think we know pretty good now--and should know for sure on the 18z runs--how things will be playing.  If folks are realistic based on what they show, there shouldn't be surprises.

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Me thinks many will be disappointed tomorrow. I'm not all that sure we will be looking at fantastic ratios throughout the entire duration of the system. I wouldn't be surprised if we for the majority we are looking at like 11:1 or so. I remember maybe last winter we had somewhat of a similar setup...lots of Arctic cold in place. lots of moisture overriding the strongest lift but the snow growth sucked...there was only a pretty narrow axis where snowgrowth was maximized.

Even when the heaviest precipitation moves overhead and we are looking at the potential for 1.5''/HR ratios the timeframe for this occurrence is maybe 3-5 hours...4-6...this is the window for these rates.

Just don't think we pull off these widespread amounts.

For everyone, Paul? Or mostly CT?
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My final call for CT, which is only a slight adjustment down from my thoughts yesterday morning...3-6" south of a line from HPN to PVD...6-10" north of there with a few spot 12" in the hills. Taint breifly makes it as far north as HFD...but there will be quite a bit of it down along the shoreline. The shoreline east of HVN, especially New London county, likely creeps above 32F near the end of the event, but after the bulk of precip has fallen. 

That's pretty similar to what we're going with as well.

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For everyone, Paul? Or mostly CT?

 

Probably everyone.  I just don't see much to show and support a widespread 10-14'' for such a widespread area.  It seems to me so many are basing everything just off of QPF charts and QPF output and model snowfall graphics.  Obviously QPF is certainly an important part of forecasting snowfall and such but there is just so much more.  

 

Going through and looking at bufkit soundings they just don't seem to be extremely supportive for us to fully maximize this QPF output.  Much of the better omega values continue to be pegged well below the best snow growth zone, there doesn't appear to be a great deal of RH within the best snow growth zone, and mid-level forcing isn't (or doesn't appear to be) all that spectacular, especially when looking for some of the higher end totals.  I think this all leads to struggling snow growth and ratios will struggle too for the most part.  

 

The speed of the system also needs to be taken into strong consideration...the heaviest QPF is only overhead for a short time and can you fully expect to see snowfall rates of exactly 1.5''/HR or higher throughout that entire time?  Outside of the heavier QPF snowfall rates won't be that much spectacular so the majority of the snow accumulations will fall in a very short time.  

 

I do think we will see some narrow zones where totals could approach 10''...even 12'' or so but not over a widespread area...it will occur in the areas where lift is maximized which will work to yield better snow ratios and growth.  

 

I'm pretty much in my own boat on this one but there are too many flags that stick out to me which we have seen with previous setups in which the system disappointed with the exception of those narrow zones.  

 

Alot has to right to get widespread 10-14''+

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10-14" here Scott.

 

10-14".

 

Kidding aside. There may be some CF subsidence east of here. As others have already mentioned...that is a monster thermal gradient along the NH/ME coast.

 

Cape Elizabeth could be in the 20s for a little bit, while PWM is single digits according to more than a few hi-res models.

 

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