Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Rains to Winchester verbatim. I'm going to be very surprised if the RGEM proves to be too warm. Hoping so, would prefer not to see as much non-snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM taints almost to NH border verbatim but it's pretty irrelevant to the forecast. We are talking for like 2 hours near the dryslot. It's also about 12-15 inches of snow for BOS verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Fully expecting to taint at this point and wouldn't be shocked to see a dumping of plain rain here either. Hard to believe that 48-72 hours ago this was a miss to the south and congrats DC and now it's congrats Berkshires. Can't complain though because modeling does have me at a consensus for a foot of snow, but what a screwjob for our friends to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Be nice if Euro holds serve or starts the beginning of the colder trend some are expecting I bet the EURO is still on the colder and further south side of guidance. It has been for days, not sure why it would change. But still remember you are analyzing like differences of 10-20 miles at times, and that's well within model noise level. If a model has a few pellets reaching the Pike, but it only gets to between HFD-BDL, that's still an accurate forecast. It'll be a nowcast event for you basically. These types of events seem to argue for colder than forecast SFC temps, but sometimes the warm punch penetrates a little further north than expected. It's so hard to tell because there's a pretty stout airmass in place, but the resistance may be less up aloft at H7-H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 this thing went from dc to northern sne/ central ne, models struggling overall it seems .....as far as impacts....thats a lot of territory even a few days out....god i wish we had some solid blocking or the past ten days wouldve set records from mid atl to nne and just about everywhere in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NWS LOT whips out the blizz warnings for metro ORD. Edit...not close to verifying so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That potent vortmax tracking trough like PIT a few days ago was a pretty large red flag to me that this would trend north. We weren't talking a strung out system here. But the reward for the potent vort is a massive slug of snow on the front end of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That potent vortmax tracking trough like PIT a few days ago was a pretty large red flag to me that this would trend north. We weren't talking a strung out system here. But the reward for the potent vort is a massive slug of snow on the front end of this. Will, what times is going to get bad out this way.....2amish?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I bet the EURO is still on the colder and further south side of guidance. It has been for days, not sure why it would change. But still remember you are analyzing like differences of 10-20 miles at times, and that's well within model noise level. If a model has a few pellets reaching the Pike, but it only gets to between HFD-BDL, that's still an accurate forecast. It'll be a nowcast event for you basically. These types of events seem to argue for colder than forecast SFC temps, but sometimes the warm punch penetrates a little further north than expected. It's so hard to tell because there's a pretty stout airmass in place, but the resistance may be less up aloft at H7-H85. Yeah ..I know we've beaten this to a pulp..but this just isn't a normal SWFE and I don't think you can just assume that the sleet line is going to get as far north"Pike region" as it usually does. I've seen a few posts saying just go with climo on this.. But with the different and rather unique setup with this..that may not necessarily work. Or maybe it does..But you just get the feeling that something unusual could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I don't buy plain rain at BOS even briefly right now. It's still cold at 950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Following the same pattern of most of this winter..............cold temps before a storm approaches only to see a low track far enough north to bring rain. That's why we only had 3 inches of snow before the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I don't think there's that much of a gradient with snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah ..I know we've beaten this to a pulp..but this just isn't a normal SWFE and I don't think you can just assume that the sleet line is going to get as far north"Pike region" as it usually does. I've seen a few posts saying just go with climo on this.. But with the different and rather unique setup with this..that may not necessarily work. Or maybe it does..But you just get the feeling that something unusual could happenIt's still a WAA, overrunning event on the front end. The mid level lows go north of you. It's okay...you'll still get warning level snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I bet the EURO is still on the colder and further south side of guidance. It has been for days, not sure why it would change. But still remember you are analyzing like differences of 10-20 miles at times, and that's well within model noise level. If a model has a few pellets reaching the Pike, but it only gets to between HFD-BDL, that's still an accurate forecast. It'll be a nowcast event for you basically. These types of events seem to argue for colder than forecast SFC temps, but sometimes the warm punch penetrates a little further north than expected. It's so hard to tell because there's a pretty stout airmass in place, but the resistance may be less up aloft at H7-H85. 00Z raobs will be telling. Folks should overlay or compare modeled temps/heights to actual soundings tonight and see which are verifying the best/worst. Can be powerful as you approach go time and need to start just picking one model or another to build a forecast (instead of the usual blend is your friend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 While this won't fill the void left by Tuesday's blizzard near miss, this looks like this will be a nice event for the Berkshires and vicinity, as I think we will avoid taint here. The models have been keying in on some downsloping for the west slope, which may trim the accumulations a little for my area. That said, I think this will produce 8-12" for the west slope and Taconics, 12-16" for the east slope. Even the CT River valley should do quite well with around a foot or so. Taint concerns arise once south of the CT/MA line, so accumulations will begin to drop as you head south down 91. Eastern NY looks good too, with a nice foot for the Albany area, more on the east slope of the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mike, is this the biggest (potential) snow out this way since Nemo? I can't remember lol. I think the biggest potential was Tuesday. In terms of what will actually happen, it may well be since then. Sure, a wobble colder or warmer is possible..I doubt any major changes now this close in, but it wouldn't shock me if it wobbled colder in the last set of runs tonight. Wouldn't shock me either if it wobbled slightly warmer. Be nice if Euro holds serve or starts the beginning of the colder trend some are expecting Who is this 'some'? I said yesterday that I didn't see what would stop this from continuing north, though was not expecting huge moves. I continue that thinking today. Warmest day in what seems like a long time. 25.3/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Following the same pattern of most of this winter..............cold temps before a storm approaches only to see a low track far enough north to bring rain. That's why we only had 3 inches of snow before the blizzard. It's totally different and you are now above normal for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Following the same pattern of most of this winter..............cold temps before a storm approaches only to see a low track far enough north to bring rain. That's why we only had 3 inches of snow before the blizzard. :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's totally different and you are now above normal for snow. That is the first five-bunner that I have ever dished out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I don't think there's that much of a gradient with snow amounts. Jesus...same, exact jack as the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Some people will just never be happy with a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Weather willy ..Don'be silly..put a jimmy on that willy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 While this won't fill the void left by Tuesday's blizzard near miss, this looks like this will be a nice event for the Berkshires and vicinity, as I think we will avoid taint here. The models have been keying in on some downsloping for the west slope, which may trim the accumulations a little for my area. That said, I think this will produce 8-12" for the west slope and Taconics, 12-16" for the east slope. Even the CT River valley should do quite well with around a foot or so. Taint concerns arise once south of the CT/MA line, so accumulations will begin to drop as you head south down 91. Eastern NY looks good too, with a nice foot for the Albany area, more on the east slope of the Catskills. I'm thinking there could be lollie out here above a foot--I'd be shocked if there were any to 16". But, I like your thinking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Following the same pattern of most of this winter..............cold temps before a storm approaches only to see a low track far enough north to bring rain. That's why we only had 3 inches of snow before the blizzard. You're lucky you're 10 miles north of the Atlantic Ocean. I'm a quarter mile north of the south facing Atlantic...I'll be lucky to eke out 3. You have a decent shot at 5...and you're gonna preserve a lot more than me. Have the paramedics arrived in Harwich yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Weather willy ..Don'be silly..put a jimmy on that willy How am I a weenie? I don't even want more snow after last week, just making an observation about storms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Scott, when does it get really bad out this way...2ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It's totally different and you are now above normal for snow.What happened to all the talk of bitter cold during this storm. Now it's going to plain rain here? Is it just not pushing far enough south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Scott, when does it get really bad out this way...2ish? Heavier snow won't move in until after 6am. Snow by 3am perhaps? Maybe a bit earlier there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How am I a weenie? I don't even want more snow after last week, just making an observation about storms this winter. We just had an even rivaling that of '78, and now have another 6-12"er enroute less than a week later. You're on crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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