CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Scott what are you thoughts on down here? Do we rain? Do we still have a chance of 6-8 Yeah best chance maybe 6 or so before flip? I could see some rain with temps into the U30s and then maybe an inch or two at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Good looking 12z runs for NNE...SWFE style of slow tickles north. Feeling better about a chance of 4-8" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah best chance maybe 6 or so before flip? I could see some rain with temps into the U30s and then maybe an inch or two at the end. Do you think rain makes it to us? It's close as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 if this thing is coming this close against the arctic air there should be some convective snow and sleet right?? It's going to help cause a bent mid-level warm front with all that juice slamming into the arctic dome...it's evident at 850mb in N CT/N RI on all guidance (though Euro was a little south)...just north of that should have some very intense rates for a time as the mass convergence there at 850-900mb will cause great upward motion in that 600-750mb region just north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Scott what are you thoughts on down here? Do we rain? Do we still have a chance of 6-8 Sleet yes. Freezing Rain/Rain are looking quite possible as well now looking at 12z runs. NAM looked the best for TAN with basically an isothermal snow event but marginal at best. RGEM was about 50/50 snow/rain here. GFS was really warm too after 15z Monday. Snow before, and rain after that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Discouraging RGEM. Taint for 6 hours east of the river south of Springfield. NW HFD county up through Western Hamden stay all snow. Boo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow - the RGEM is quite warm at 850mb. Would imply about a 50/50 snow and sleet combo for HFD and even KTOL. Haven't you heard, it the best model out there. I would go 100% with what it shows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Do you think rain makes it to us? It's close as of now. No I don't think so. I think at worst sleet...at least that is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm literally right on the fence between 8 and 12. With the rgem depiction I could end up with like 8-9 but West Suffield ends up with 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll be happy with 2 inches at this point..............never thought the storm would be this warm a few days ago. TWC has 8-14 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mets .. You think any bumps colder are possible ? Like Euro scenario? Or is the goose cooked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mets .. You think any bumps colder are possible ? Like Euro scenario? Or is the goose cooked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Thanks guys. I guess if we come out of this with some sort of a gain it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 No I don't think so. I think at worst sleet...at least that is my guess. The Bristol/Norfolk/plymouth county line looks like a good demarcation line right now for snow/sleet transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Mets .. You think any bumps colder are possible ? Like Euro scenario? Or is the goose cooked? Sure, a wobble colder or warmer is possible..I doubt any major changes now this close in, but it wouldn't shock me if it wobbled colder in the last set of runs tonight. Wouldn't shock me either if it wobbled slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Some of these so called warm ticks are also the model looking a bit faster. For instance although a model like the Canadian seemed warmer at the 18z time on Monday, the low is also a bit further ENE than what was modeled on the 00z run. Don't forget as the low approaches so does the warmer air so it makes sense. You can also see how at the same time, it's colder in NJ. Faster low. So, don't obsess too much because you can't see every hour of every model and a lot of things happen in between every 3 hrs. I'm not saying it didn't tick slightly warmer, but keep that in mind. It's never easy to compare snapshots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Some of these so called warm ticks are also the model looking a bit faster. For instance although a model like the Canadian seemed warmer at the 18z time on Monday, the low is also a bit further ENE than what was modeled on the 00z run. Don't forget as the low approaches so does the warmer air so it makes sense. You can also see how at the same time, it's colder in NJ. Faster low. So, don't obsess too much because you can see every hour of every model and a lot of things happen in between every 3 hrs. I'm not saying it didn't tick slightly warmer, but keep that in mind. It's never easy to compare snapshots. Yeah fast timing will make it look a bit warmer than it really is versus previous run. You can also see more QPF...so more front end has happened by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This has all the appeal of a thump to drizzle NW of GHG/PVD. I'd probably go 8-12 north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is not an easy forecast for this area. I'd stick with 6-10, but at this point in leaning closer to 6 then 10. Could be a mess with the kitchen sink after the snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Sure, a wobble colder or warmer is possible..I doubt any major changes now this close in, but it wouldn't shock me if it wobbled colder in the last set of runs tonight. Wouldn't shock me either if it wobbled slightly warmer. It's all within the noise level at this point. Those 20 mile burps here and there seem fairly normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Be nice if Euro holds serve or starts the beginning of the colder trend some are expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GFS has a bit of elevated instability late tomorrow aftn assoc with the dryslot. However the final band of snow may be a bit convective in nature with heavier bursts. It shows up as elevated CAPE with higher RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GFS has a bit of elevated instability late tomorrow aftn assoc with the dryslot. However the final band of snow may be a bit convective in nature with heavier bursts. It shows up as elevated CAPE with higher RH. I'm thinking we could see the "dippin' dots" as we get those marginal warm layers in there along with the instability...like a sleet mix transitioning to dippin dots and then a burst of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm thinking we could see the "dippin' dots" as we get those marginal warm layers in there along with the instability...like a sleet mix transitioning to dippin dots and then a burst of snow. Yeah I could see that. It's gonna be fun too when Boston drops from like 30-12 in about 40 minutes. Should be some snows with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 going to stick with 3-6 here. Be a quicker flip I think. Nice system and will have to watch the backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is going to be a fun storm for observations near where the warm front sets up.It also makes you appreciate storms like the blizzard last week, and how difficult it is to get pure snow storms without mixing in the coastal plain of SNE, if your are of the snow loving variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 9 degrees with a few hours of sleet tomorrow ORH south..That's like V day sleet storm esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah I could see that. It's gonna be fun too when Boston drops from like 30-12 in about 40 minutes. Should be some snows with that too. Yeah that's going to be interesting. Obviously the sleet and dippin dots will only occur where the warm layer gets far enough north...otherwise ya just varying types of snow. Questionable whether that warm layer reaches the pike or not of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does the RGEM taint or flip BOS for a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does the RGEM taint or flip BOS for a bit? Rains to Winchester verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.