ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Blizzard? Out of this? No way...winds aren't high enough...maybe briefly down on the Cape or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Blizzard?No wind. Calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Out of this? No way...winds aren't high enough...maybe briefly down on the Cape or something. will are these later models still positive for snow down here? North usually translates to taint here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No wind. Calm hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Harv went under 6" n of the pike. Disagree with him....which doesn't happen often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Out of this? No way...winds aren't high enough...maybe briefly down on the Cape or something. maybe not 3 hrs but you pack those isobars/thermal gradient and with that qpf rate I would not be surprised if 1/4 mile 35 mph winds in places like Boston happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Have a personal bias on them if you know what I meanI figured as much. Tragic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 maybe not 3 hrs but you pack those isobars/thermal gradient and with that qpf rate I would not be surprised if 1/4 mile 35 mph winds in places like Boston happen We have an inversion in this storm, so I think we'll have trouble mixing stronger gusts down...these types of systems usually have relatively light winds. I do agree the Cape might get some brief gusts, but for most of us the wind is a non-story in this one IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Harv went under 6" n of the pike. Disagree with him....which doesn't happen often. What's his entire forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What's his entire forecast?Preliminary 6"+ south of pike, 6" or less north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Preliminary 6"+ south of pike, 6" or less north. Well it's a broad brush that he'll probably fine tune at 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well it's a broad brush that he'll probably fine tune at 11 hes south of guidance right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No issues with the 18z gfs here. 8-12 isolated higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 They are definitely better than a decade ago...if you had been forecasting back then you'd notice the difference. The model scores are solidly higher if you go back in the verification archives. The SREFs are one set of guidance that used to be decent in winter events, but seemed to have regressed, but they perform better elswhere. I think either I'm not being clear or you're getting confused. The point isn't about 10 years ago versus now, it seems as of recently they have only gotten sh1ttier. Euro upgrade was trash, GFS upgrade was trash... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Mikey Wankem just posted the RPM for monday's event on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Saw this on Twitter. NAM first picture, EURO second picture. Thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thoughts are those algorithms suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Way too low south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah I figured they would wait until tomorrow...but 50% confidence in >6" is probably already attainable. The guidance is in pretty strong agreement for good snowfall despite disagreeing on the smaller specifics. I think part of it is that the usual snowfall amounts are applied differently now with a huge pack in place. 4" comes along as plowable, but where do we put it... These lower numbers have a way of becoming higher impact. KTAN mentioned this the other day, which was also one reason they admitted to being forceful about the warnings today... As it were, almost no snow fell that sticking to roads so couldn't be tested. But a plowed 5" event Monday would be more significant in my mind than a well-adjusted nickle-dime pattern. Which by the way, some of the QPF guidance would argue 10" with higher ratios, to boot. You know all this - just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM and GFS suggests that 1.25" of QPF would lead to 12-18" with 12:1 0r 15:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OT: any one else in the 30+ club from this last event noticing that's 22" tops now ?? Wow that's some serious settling in just two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So what are the analogs for this critter ... Kind of smacks of 2005 Dec with that compact vort turning negative like that, but I'm just speculating on lose memory - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think the danger is this trending south not north that high means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 boy these headlines since the nov storm are getting increasingly aggressive and being issued way out in advance....im not biting yet, the blizzard gave us just under 40 pct of the avg forecasted amount( not using any of those silly 2-3 ft forecasts lol, otherwise its more like 30-35 pct) and todays "storm" produced 20 pct of the avg forecasted total..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Our storm for today hasn't even started yet, 2-4" overnight tonight, 12-18" on Monday and 2-4" at least for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Watch the se trend. I think the cold ushered in after the clipper makes a push on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Saw this on Twitter. NAM first picture, EURO second picture. Thoughts. Euro doesn't look like that on the map posted earlier in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So what are the analogs for this critter ... Kind of smacks of 2005 Dec with that compact vort turning negative like that, but I'm just speculating on lose memory - Take 3/7/99 and shift it south 75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Our storm for today hasn't even started yet, 2-4" overnight tonight, 12-18" on Monday and 2-4" at least for Thursday. Shooting for the low ends of those may be closer to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Take 3/7/99 and shift it south 75 miles. I instantly know what to expect now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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