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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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maybe not 3 hrs but you pack those isobars/thermal gradient and with that qpf rate I would not be surprised if 1/4 mile 35 mph winds in places like Boston  happen

 

 

We have an inversion in this storm, so I think we'll have trouble mixing stronger gusts down...these types of systems usually have relatively light winds. I do agree the Cape might get some brief gusts, but for most of us the wind is a non-story in this one IMHO.

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They are definitely better than a decade ago...if you had been forecasting back then you'd notice the difference.

 

The model scores are solidly higher if you go back in the verification archives.

 

 

The SREFs are one set of guidance that used to be decent in winter events, but seemed to have regressed, but they perform better elswhere.

I think either I'm not being clear or you're getting confused. The point isn't about 10 years ago versus now, it seems as of recently they have only gotten sh1ttier.

 

Euro upgrade was trash, GFS upgrade was trash...

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Yeah I figured they would wait until tomorrow...but 50% confidence in >6" is probably already attainable. The guidance is in pretty strong agreement for good snowfall despite disagreeing on the smaller specifics.

 

I think part of it is that the usual snowfall amounts are applied differently now with a huge pack in place.  4" comes along as plowable, but where do we put it... These lower numbers have a way of becoming higher impact.  KTAN mentioned this the other day, which was also one reason they admitted to being forceful about the warnings today...  

 

As it were, almost no snow fell that sticking to roads so couldn't be tested.   But a plowed 5" event Monday would be more significant in my mind than a well-adjusted nickle-dime pattern.   Which by the way, some of the QPF guidance would argue 10" with higher ratios, to boot.   You know all this - just sayin'

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boy these headlines since the nov storm are getting increasingly aggressive and being issued way out in advance....im not biting yet, the blizzard gave us just under 40 pct of the avg forecasted amount( not using any of those silly 2-3 ft forecasts lol, otherwise its more like 30-35 pct) and todays "storm" produced 20 pct of the avg forecasted total.....

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