Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Kevin says toss the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I expect the Euro will probably make one tick north at 00z here and then we'll be basically at a tightly clustered consensus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs may taint a bit here, but still a 6-10" snowstorm. Nice to see the tics back south a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I think the solution will end up being taint as far north as about me but not much further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS is really liberal with QPF...that's over an inch for most in SNE.look at radar and WV, loaded with Pac and Gulf Moisture add some Atlantic some Arctic air. Should be some high ratio squeezing of every bit of moisture. Probably snowing under nearly clear skies at the end diamond dust style. I like Hunchies area for Jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs may taint a bit here, but still a 6-10" snowstorm. Nice to see the tics back south a bit Hour or two of pellets after a thumping front end shouldn't worry anyone. Better pack building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I expect the Euro will probably make one tick north at 00z here and then we'll be basically at a tightly clustered consensus...agreed if at all with an expansion of QPF.Should benefit a lot of posters. Man what a great ten days, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hour or two of pellets after a thumping front end shouldn't worry anyone. Better pack building.if GEFS is right nothing is melting anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I was in the back of my mind worrying about an ice storm yesterday, glad to see some backing off of mid level warmth. Serious cold follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hour or two of pellets after a thumping front end shouldn't worry anyone. Better pack building. Nope. I'm fine with that. Get me my warning snows with some sleet, no complaints here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hour or two of pellets after a thumping front end shouldn't worry anyone. Better pack building.Yeah, but that's easy to say when we won't see a single sleet pellet.Looking forward to this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 would be nice to close off the 700 mb low a tad quicker to assist in the back-end snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The snowmaps that factor in ratios(Quite accurately I might add from past experience) show 6"+ for virtually everyone and a broad swath of 12"+ on this 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 you got 20 something inches just stopthis. Just learn to be happy we're getting anything. Even 8" puts him well over 30" in a week. How can anyone complain about that? I may only land up with 3 or 4" but I'm still happy. At least there's stuff to track and we're not torching or watching storms get suppressed to the south. Considering 2 weeks ago we all would have given our left nut for a 6" storm now were complaining like little sissys that we might not jackpot. Enjoy the storm man no matter what you land up with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Now the GFS puts the 0C at 850 And Ground level Right up to my head. I'm a mile from big issues now. The 12z was 5 miles past me so I'll take it as good news. (And Ginxy I'm sorry, but don't make 20"-24" seem great when a plethora of things could have so easily gotten me 30" which would be on the podium for All-Time NOT to mention the pages of lists of things I did (and am still dealing with) to get home for it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 wpri not buying into much taint....6-9 immediate coast 10-14 not too far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Now the GFS puts the 0C at 850 And Ground level Right up to my head. I'm a mile from big issues now. The 12z was 5 miles past me so I'll take it as good news. (And Ginxy I'm sorry, but don't make 20"-24" seem great when a plethora of things could have so easily gotten me 30" which would be on the podium for All-Time NOT to mention the pages of lists of things I did (and am still dealing with) to get home for it.) Let me get this straight. You got over 20 and you're crying? Are you saying that when you were in Los Angeles if you were guaranteed 20-24 you'd have stayed because after all, that's pedestrian? I don't get it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 WLNE doesn't agree, smaller accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 boohoo you got 20" lol. While im sitting here with my measly 8" and probably have the least amount of snow for the season than anywhere in all of new England. If anyone can be complaining it should be me, but im thankful for what I got, a nice snowpack, brutal cold, and 3 warning snows in 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 WLNE doesn't agree, smaller accumulations What was it...4-8 south of PVD? 8-12 north of PVD? My guess is you get 6-7 inches. 4 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 this. Just learn to be happy we're getting anything. Even 8" puts him well over 30" in a week. How can anyone complain about that? I may only land up with 3 or 4" but I'm still happy. At least there's stuff to track and we're not torching or watching storms get suppressed to the south. Considering 2 weeks ago we all would have given our left nut for a 6" storm now were complaining like little sissys that we might not jackpot. Enjoy the storm man no matter what you land up with! Post of the day. Of the winter. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 It'll have snowed with accumulations for about 6 out of 9 days for many of us. No way anyone can complain. CMC being north bugs me based on its performance this winter with temps, but it also had a pretty significant speed jump this run. NOAA might be a little high down here, but it's not unreasonable. 3-6/4-8.... more immediately and consistently NW It does appear to be the year of Ray and Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Burbank just closed out by saying several, maybe 8" before it mixes in Boston, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well the 00Z CMC wasn't all that pretty, not too much different from 12Z but a little warmer at the sfc and a tick north. Weaker with the sfc low as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Slightly faster with surface features by about a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Now the GFS puts the 0C at 850 And Ground level Right up to my head. I'm a mile from big issues now. The 12z was 5 miles past me so I'll take it as good news. (And Ginxy I'm sorry, but don't make 20"-24" seem great when a plethora of things could have so easily gotten me 30" which would be on the podium for All-Time NOT to mention the pages of lists of things I did (and am still dealing with) to get home for it.) I've seen 20-24" on the ground maybe once or twice in my whole life, and I didn't grow up in that much worse climatologically a location as you're in. And of course BTW, let's not forget that millions of people around NYC were supposed to get double or triple the snow they got from the Monday storm and got screwed. And are about to get screwed with this and will likely lose snowpack at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I expect the Euro will probably make one tick north at 00z here and then we'll be basically at a tightly clustered consensus...i guess I'm a little worried up here when despite the models pushing out like 6-12" of snow, the corresponding bufkit soundings have that "never really saturated" look in the lowest 5kft or so because of the extraordinary drain of frigid, dry air in the low levels. Some model guidance suggests that i never really get above 0F on Monday. We did it Jan '14 when i was like 5 below and got a foot of snow (never had experienced something that anomalous before) but i guess we'll see if we can do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Monday overnight/Tuesday sunrise -- serious cold right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 WLNE doesn't agree, smaller accumulations WLNE is horrible (since Fred left). Their first map for the blizzard (posted on their Facebook page) was 6-12" when ALL the models were showing 12-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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