ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Tough forecast to be honest. I think it's mostly snow off the south coast but taint is possible to the pike. Several of those '94 events had taint briefly tickle the pike...those two early January ones did I recall, but still awesome events...like 8-12" type snows. I remmber sleeting at like 8 degrees in one of them, lol. My gut says sleet prob stays south of the pike right now, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Several of those '94 events had taint briefly tickle the pike...those two early January ones did I recall, but still awesome events...like 8-12" type snows. I remmber sleeting at like 8 degrees in one of them, lol. My gut says sleet prob stays south of the pike right now, but not by much. Seems reasonable and I agree. It may get into Boston or very close, before flipping back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Pretty good dump of snow right near the pike on the RGEM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The RGEM appeared as if it was going for a quicker coastal transfer around hour 33 and then bailed out on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Its currently 17F here, I don't like how we will warm up to above freezing on Monday. I think storm stays south of the region. I don't believe these further north tracks. I think models shift southward like they have been doing this winter and it will shift the heaviest snow south to the south coast of MA, RI and CT. Again just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'd lock the RGEM if I could. Few hours of SN+ here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 A nice parting gift too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Seems reasonable and I agree. It may get into Boston or very close, before flipping back. In one of those '94 events, the atmosphere was so cold in the low levels that there was OES on the south shore while it was sleeting...the synoptic lift was producing sleet but we had a NE flow of frigid air with temps of like -12C to -15C at 900mb below the warm layer that was producing OES. Probably one of the wildest weather events in winter I had heard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You can also see the mixing layer isn't terribly wide which is what I expect given the brick wall it's hitting. Even a track near MVY or ACK won't spread the sleet far north. The 18z GFS has an unsual 850 low well north which looks a little suspicious, especially when similar model tracks have it farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Several of those '94 events had taint briefly tickle the pike...those two early January ones did I recall, but still awesome events...like 8-12" type snows. I remmber sleeting at like 8 degrees in one of them, lol. My gut says sleet prob stays south of the pike right now, but not by much. I think sleet will tickle the Sturbridge area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00z RGEM QPF that falls as snow...you play with fire, but that's also where the jack is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00z RGEM QPF that falls as snow...you play with fire, but that's also where the jack is. Of course, it's right over ORH. Just far enough east last Tuesday, not just far enough north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 i would lock that run 00z RGEM QPF that falls as snow...you play with fire, but that's also where the jack is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 In one of those '94 events, the atmosphere was so cold in the low levels that there was OES on the south shore while it was sleeting...the synoptic lift was producing sleet but we had a NE flow of frigid air with temps of like -12C to -15C at 900mb below the warm layer that was producing OES. Probably one of the wildest weather events in winter I had heard of. Def remember that one! RGEM was probably cooler than the 18z, but as your map shows we waste a lot to taint in the southern nether regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 i would lock that run Warning snows for the entire Pioneer Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Def remember that one! RGEM was probably cooler than the 18z, but as your map shows we waste a lot to taint in the southern nether regions. You'll get a good dumping prior and then an inch or two at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 You'll get a good dumping prior and then an inch or two at the end. I figure 2-4 before, 2-4 after. Probably 3-6 is the safer play though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If the Canadian is right, I'll go off the Newport Bridge now. I MISSED a the Deformation Band in the Blizzard by 20 miles. I am NOT MISSING A GD RAIN/SNOW/SLEET LINE BY 15 MILES!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If the Canadian is right, I'll go off the Newport Bridge now. I MISSED a the Deformation Band in the Blizzard by 20 miles. I am NOT MISSING A GD RAIN/SNOW/SLEET LINE BY 15 MILES!! you got 20 something inches just stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like GFS will cool off a bit from 18z. Not a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Gfs cools. Taint stays well south of the pike and east of Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Inevitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Tries to develop H7 with cold NE winds below at 850 at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If the Canadian is right, I'll go off the Newport Bridge now. I MISSED a the Deformation Band in the Blizzard by 20 miles. I am NOT MISSING A GD RAIN/SNOW/SLEET LINE BY 15 MILES!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS is a nice hit across a broad swath of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That's a pretty sweet look actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS is really liberal with QPF...that's over an inch for most in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If the Canadian is right, I'll go off the Newport Bridge now. I MISSED a the Deformation Band in the Blizzard by 20 miles. I am NOT MISSING A GD RAIN/SNOW/SLEET LINE BY 15 MILES!! I crossed the bridge 20 minutes ago. The winds have diminished so I think the conditions will be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 GFS is really liberal with QPF...that's over an inch for most in SNE.. Many might see 10" in that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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