The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Who was saying 20-25 earlier with blizzard conditions, that's insanely high. Hope it verifies though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How long until the RGEM comes out? Not sure how much later I can stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Best chance for >10" IMO is along the Pike into SNH, but for most I think 6-10" is the realistic range. Won't have as much(or really any) help from ratios which was influencing some forecasts higher earlier so you'd need widespread >1" QPF to go over 10" and I don't see it. Someone will report like 14" from a weenie band but widespread I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'd go 6-10", with isolated amours up to 1'. That's what I was thinking for BOS. Someone near the CF or maybe tail end OE stuff could get a bit more. Unless the GGEM happens..I can't find a reason to think 15 or something like that. In any case, we'll see what the rest of the guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How long until the RGEM comes out? Not sure how much later I can stay up. >20 minutes depending on if it's running on time or not. Should be 10:05 ish but it hasn't been on time in weeks, been coming out around 1015 recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Like I said earlier. 6-10 maybe some sleet, maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6-10 with the amount of snow in the area already is a big deal. Its nothing to sneeze at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 8-12. Lock it in. 14 is too high for most. Too progressive. I agree. The EC would never really suggest those type of amounts even with ratios most of CT still caps out around 10 maybe 12. Not 14 or 16. It has been consistent with putting around .7-.8 statewide for the past two runs. The GGEM and to a lesser extent the NAM have been going crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 These Canadians have chutzpah to make us wait on them... I wonder if euro ends up right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 >20 minutes depending on if it's running on time or not. Should be 10:05 ish but it hasn't been on time in weeks, been coming out around 1015 recently. Thanks. I'll hope for the best. If there are lots of pages added between now and 5:00a.m., I guess it will have been a good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Dont these tend to move in faster than modeled as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The NAM has a history of being too far south with SWFEs in the 24-48 hour range, so I'm not sure we can buy the southward tick yet, if the GFS joins I'll be more accepting. The RGEM is probably still going to be too far out to be reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 These Canadians have chutzpah to make us wait on them... I wonder if euro ends up right? I think its probably a bit to cold still. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if it is more correct than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Tim Kelley's map is 12+ pike area Boston west. Too high to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Tim Kelley's map is 12+ pike area Boston west. Too high to me. Yeah I wants to see a legit 3"+ from CCB goodies at the end to forecast that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'd go 6-10", with isolated amours up to 1'. so 6-12 is your call? I said 10-14 but your right 14 is high end, I bet most end up in the 9-10 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 For Tip: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/fous/FOUS61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I remember saying this earlier.. Dave Epstein @growingwisdom Boston might be 30 at 10AM Monday, while Worcester is 9. This is the hard part of 4cast. Check out gradient of temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 TWC has me getting 14-16" ..! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Who was saying 20-25 earlier with blizzard conditions, that's insanely high. Hope it verifies though That guys always does drive-by extreme forecasts prior to every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The one thing a bit different vs other SWFE is the lift near 850. That should be cold enough north of the pike if the circulation stays closed off to the south. While the real deep lift may be gone after 15z, that could keep it going along with an overall moist column. Arctic airmasses can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 These Canadians have chutzpah to make us wait on them... I wonder if euro ends up right? It def. has the right idea with regard to QPF. Can't fall for this stupid runs with like 1.3-1.5" QPF in a swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The one thing a bit different vs other SWFE is the lift near 850. That should be cold enough north of the pike if the circulation stays closed off to the south. While the real deep lift may be gone after 15z, that could keep it going along with an overall moist column. Arctic airmasses can surprise. Unless we pop a CCB, then it's just going to keep nuisance light weenie snows going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Dont these tend to move in faster than modeled as well? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Unless we pop a CCB, then it's just going to keep nuisance light weenie snows going. Well the mid level flow could promote an oes event, your favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 "The snow comes faster, but so does the sleet" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well the mid level flow could promote an oes event, your favorite. I'm not talking circle jerk, I mean synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Unless we pop a CCB, then it's just going to keep nuisance light weenie snows going. Well what I mean is that while rates aren't heavy, ratios will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 RGEM looks maybe a bit faster than 12z, but no noticeable tick. If anything, maybe a hair colder extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like 0z RGEM is a tic north of its 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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