CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They still get sleet to the pike. It wasn't that cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They still get sleet to the pike. It wasn't that cool.Sleet IS cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Everyone's favorite srefs are a bit colderNot really. The ARW members basically came back to reality which brought the mean south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They still get sleet to the pike. It wasn't that cool. Latitudinally to the Pike or is to the Pike east of 128 or something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Sleet IS cool. More sleet the better I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latitudinally to the Pike or is to the Pike east of 128 or something like that? ORH east or so. It doesn't really matter much at this point. It was a QPF dump prior and any taint was brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Latitudinally to the Pike or is to the Pike east of 128 or something like that? Many times it seems to set up from around Westfield- Ludlow east and the Berks do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ORH east or so. It doesn't really matter much at this point. It was a QPF dump prior and any taint was brief. Thanks....just trying to figure out if the warmer push was coming from the s vs. se. No worry about taint here. Hopefully it will move a little slower though and keep on giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 495 East is pretty common. About 15 miles east of ORH, but if this is latitudinal it might not fit the sw/ne axis that is common. Is the GFS king here or are all the models singing the same song? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not really. The ARW members basically came back to reality which brought the mean south. You mean they're not showing PF getting rain anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I honestly can't believe the SREFs are brought up in meaningful discussion. Until they remove the ARW members....or just start over it's useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 From Mike Wankum on Twitter, IDK what algorithm's he's using but these numbers seem bizzare(3.5" at BOS and 6.1" at ORH on the GFS? Looked to me like 1"+ QPF as snow ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Axis of heaviest snow appears likely to be s VT- s NH - se Maine and along coast to s NB. 12-18 inches in this zone generally with 20-25 local max. Still think most of MA does fairly well and higher northern parts of CT, probably 9-15 in across these zones. s 2/3 of CT, most of RI and se MA will have mixing issues and frontal dry slots, could end up 4-8 snow and .25-.50 sleet. near-blizzard conditions in heavier snow zones by Monday afternoon and evening. temps peak briefly and fall off very sharply during end of snowfall, stiff northerly winds develop. blowing snow could close highways. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nice and simple for now, although probably will introduce a southern zone with 3-6/4-8 and mixing tomorrow if the models don't tick south tonight(Which I have a feeling they will, it seems like a lot of times in these types of events you see the models overdo the warmth in the midrange and then inside of 24 you see a slow but steady cooling trend). I'll probably sketch out something more region wide later. lol. Looks like a lot of work went into that complex forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol. Looks like a lot of work went into that complex forecast.Purple means h2o in solid, liquid or gas form will be present in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 From Mike Wankum on Twitter, IDK what algorithm's he's using but these numbers seem bizzare(3.5" at BOS and 6.1" at ORH on the GFS? Looked to me like 1"+ QPF as snow ) Idiotic snow algorithms FTL. Gaaah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does anyone remember how ridiculously warm the GFS was for the 1/24 system. The Euro was significantly cooler (on the coolest side of the guidance) along with the GGEM. No matter how good or bad GFS did with JUNO (hate using wx channel names) GFS still has a warm bias and it is likely way too warm. The end result is likely a compromise but a 75/25 split in favor of the Euro seems more likely than the Euro caving to the GFS...in my opinion. Then don't use it. Nothing I hate more in weather than naming Winter Storms Especially since it's a Weather Channel thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 Guessing the NAM comes in colder again based on the s/w at 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I guess those weenie model snowfall graphics are here to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 You, me, Hippy and PF would take that, verbatim, in a heartbeat. Lol SWFE type systems are often more emotionally comforting here because the variables for disaster here different. QPF cutoff worries are more latitude oriented in this set-up and this corner of the state often is last to taint. After being through a bunch of these over my 7 winters in Greenfield I've really grown fond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm willing to bet PTown doesn't get 10-14 NWS has been terrible this year. So many times there has been zero doubt in my mind that they are wrong. 10-14" is too heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I guess those weenie model snowfall graphics are here to stay. They infuriate me and probably cause much confusion amongst the general populous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 They infuriate me and probably cause much confusion amongst the general populous.I've only seen them posted here...I rarely watch the TV broadcasts anymore. What do they even say with them when the graphic comes up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 NWS has been terrible this year. So many times there has been zero doubt in my mind that they are wrong. 10-14" is too heavy. for p town yesSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol. Looks like a lot of work went into that complex forecast. lol I'm not on duty so I wouldn't know(contributed my thoughts from the chairlift, get to do the final call tomorrow though which should be a bit more interesting), but I believe he basically took a non NAM blend and called it a day for now considering it's a first call and whether it's 4-8 or 6-12 it's still a plowable snowfall for the whole state and that's all that people really care about as the first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 This run of the NAM much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 for p town yes Sent from my iPhone I think a general 10-14" is too heavy. 8-12" with isolate higher amounts would suffice. Amounts over 1' will not be widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We are below freezing throughout the column here at ORH, so I guess it is all snow. What if the GFS is a tad warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol, yeah it doesn't matter 4-8 5-10 6-10 is all the same thing when youre talking to the public, it means theres going to be a bunch of snow and I have to shovel it and the kids are going to be home from school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This run of the NAM much colder. Praise the lord, now only if the EC can trend that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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