moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That is a nice product. I know it's out of range but rpm for Monday? It really is--fun to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I really like this model, and I think it is run off of GFS initial conditions? Anyways, I envision a thermal packing like this. http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Edit: WRF CORE with NAM initial conditions. Ever check out the GFS-WRF on the SUNY-SB site?http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/fieldselect.php?model=GFS&date=2015013112 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think 2m temps will be way colder than modeled above waters edge on the southern coast of New England. They always are in swfe systems that go under us with strong fresh cold. So you think I don't go above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Again.. You'll get some snow out of this. So there's nothing to worry about.. But it's ok to think the Euro could be right on this oneYou're running through the whole gamut of defense mechanisms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've got 5" to show of a T-12 prog of 24-36". That's not "semi-bad", my friend. That's f*cking awful. hear hear!! yesterdays event down here was a bust too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You're running through the whole gamut of defense mechanisms today.12-15 there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12-15 there?10-12" wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ever check out the GFS-WRF on the SUNY-SB site? http://dendrite.somas.stonybrook.edu/LI_WRF/fieldselect.php?model=GFS&date=2015013112 I'll take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'll take a look.I rarely look at it, but when you mentioned a GFS initialized WRF I instantly thought of that. I have no idea how well it performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'll take a look.It has the 2m 0C way inland...not happening. It has to be a GFS thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I rarely look at it, but when you mentioned a GFS initialized WRF I instantly thought of that. I have no idea how well it performs.Despite the facepalm you would normally do when you see WRF-NMM. It's done fairly well. It is maybe a bit out if its range, but it always does the surface thermal field right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well for once it has not been a bad 24 hours of model watching in the NW corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I almost wonder if that 700mb placement isn't correctable. It seems hydrostatically like it doesn't have much support for being that far NW with all that 500 and 300 mb difluence axis ripping out S of the S Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What are your ideas on extent of mix line?I probably ping mid stream from kidney stones but you are good. 8-14 85% of CT 6-8 SECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i like sleet and want it. We'll remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i like sleet and want it. It helps keep pack. Everyone knows that. To me this is just an interesting discussion because this is not really s swfe . With a coastal popping it doesn't perform like one as one expects. I think some folks think this a normal swfe and are basing hunches on that . This is a setup in the Euro's wheelhouse. And because it was 100 miles too far west in s blizzard people are discounting it lol. This coming from the guy whose fb post a few hours ago talked about a "very cold storm with temps either side of 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We'll remember that. From now on, we'll forever wish pinging for Tolland. 9.6/-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol. This coming from the guy whose fb post a few hours ago talked about a "very cold storm with temps either side of 10". My progged high for Monday is 8, so that's one side of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Axis of heaviest snow appears likely to be s VT- s NH - se Maine and along coast to s NB. 12-18 inches in this zone generally with 20-25 local max. Still think most of MA does fairly well and higher northern parts of CT, probably 9-15 in across these zones. s 2/3 of CT, most of RI and se MA will have mixing issues and frontal dry slots, could end up 4-8 snow and .25-.50 sleet. near-blizzard conditions in heavier snow zones by Monday afternoon and evening. temps peak briefly and fall off very sharply during end of snowfall, stiff northerly winds develop. blowing snow could close highways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol. This coming from the guy whose fb post a few hours ago talked about a "very cold storm with temps either side of 10". And Im not changing thAt. Did you see Euro I posted? It's got 2m temps in all interior SnE in single digits and snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will be clearing the drains tomorrow. Worried about street flooding and a flash freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will be clearing the drains tomorrow. Worried about street flooding and a flash freezelmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will be clearing the drains tomorrow. Worried about street flooding and a flash freeze I will be finishing with shoveling off the flat roof, and hoping that the chute on my snow thrower will be high enough to throw the snow over the existing banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will be clearing the drains tomorrow. Worried about street flooding and a flash freeze The flash freeze: as sought after and nearly as elusive as back-end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will be finishing with shoveling off the flat roof, and hoping that the chute on my snow thrower will be high enough to throw the snow over the existing banks.Here it is again. How folks are worried about rain on coast and sleet to pike are beyond me but let them worry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will be finishing with shoveling off the flat roof, and hoping that the chute on my snow thrower will be high enough to throw the snow over the existing banks. And to think how you poo poo'd winter up until Juno. Changed on a dime for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here it is again. How folks are worried and rain on coast and sleet to poke is beyond me but let them worry about that We worry down here much more than you Need to. Enjoy your foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I expect a 970 low through BGM on Monday. 60s to Montreal and winter moths picking me up and flying me away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I expect a 970 low through BGM on Monday. 60s to Montreal and winter moths picking me up and flying me away.Looks like warmth wins. Take down all Wsw in SNE. Rains to Maine . It's just a glorified warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I still think blending is appropriate. Gfs still looked like mainly snow in my location near the Ct / MA border/ perhaps a couple hours of taint but is also heavy hitter with 1-1.25 total QPF. the colder all snow solution on the euro only had me with about. 7 qpf. looks almost like an even trade off for me and my location with more qpf but warmer aloft vs colder and a bit drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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