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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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maybe every other model got better so it made them look good before and we realize they are not that great now?

They are definitely better than a decade ago...if you had been forecasting back then you'd notice the difference.

 

The model scores are solidly higher if you go back in the verification archives.

 

 

The SREFs are one set of guidance that used to be decent in winter events, but seemed to have regressed, but they perform better elswhere.

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Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
425 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING FOR CAPE ANN AND CAPE COD ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR...

...A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

CTZ002-003-MAZ011-310530-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.150202T0000Z-150203T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBOX.WC.Y.0003.150131T0600Z-150131T1400Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...SPRINGFIELD
425 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF HARTFORD...WINDSOR
LOCKS...UNION...VERNON AND SPRINGFIELD.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 16 BELOW.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND
CHILL INDEX OF -20.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8
OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEX
OF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A
HAT AND GLOVES.
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maybe every other model got better so it made them look good before and we realize they are not that great now?

 

 

Well I'm talkling only about 4-5 years ago for the SREFs...when they switched the ETA and RSM members out of the ensemble. Those were more skillful in winter synoptic events than the current set which seemed to be more geared toward convection.

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Well I'm talkling only about 4-5 years ago for the SREFs...when they switched the ETA and RSM members out of the ensemble. Those were more skillful in winter synoptic events than the current set which seemed to be more geared toward convection.

Too bad they could not run 2 sets. One for the thunderstorm crowd and one for winter. Not like they need much computing power. A TRS-80 should do it
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LOL - best AFD ever?

 

AND HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH A STORM. GOING DOWN ALL THE GUIDANCE EVER

KNOWN. LIKE A DRIFTER I AM LOST ABOUT THIS STORM. SO I`VE MADE UP MY

MIND. I`M ENSEMBLE BLENDING THIS TIME. SO HERE WE GO AGAIN.

 

 

 

Meanwhile OKX uses a Great White reference lol j/k but it would go something like this 

 

 

"Once Bitten, Twice Shy"

 

Well the times are getting hard for you, OKX

I'm a snowin and a blowin all over your world

You can't remember when you got your last forecast right

And you don't know just how a good forecast feels

My, my, my, Your once bitten, twice shy, baby

My, my, my, Your once bitten, twice shy, baby

My, my, my, Your once bitten, twice shy, baby

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10000% agree ORH, I've been looking at the data all day. The low placement made 0 sense when you look at the vortmax. 

 

 

when the airmass is really frigid with tightly packed height lines, the sfc low can be displaced a decent amount SE...but in this case, it was probably too much. It's not like the vortmax was weak...if the vortmax has some punch to it like this one, then you'll usually see the low position correct toward it.

 

That said, there's only so much room for this to amplify because if you look as late as 54 hours or even 60 hours, there's still a ton of confluence north of NNE...so it has a limit.

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when the airmass is really frigid with tightly packed height lines, the sfc low can be displaced a decent amount SE...but in this case, it was probably too much. It's not like the vortmax was weak...if the vortmax has some punch to it like this one, then you'll usually see the low position correct toward it.

 

That said, there's only so much room for this to amplify because if you look as late as 54 hours or even 60 hours, there's still a ton of confluence north of NNE...so it has a limit.

 

Well unfortunately it was enough for Philly to get screwed, but should be awesome for you guys, GL. We had our winter last yr. 

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when the airmass is really frigid with tightly packed height lines, the sfc low can be displaced a decent amount SE...but in this case, it was probably too much. It's not like the vortmax was weak...if the vortmax has some punch to it like this one, then you'll usually see the low position correct toward it.

 

That said, there's only so much room for this to amplify because if you look as late as 54 hours or even 60 hours, there's still a ton of confluence north of NNE...so it has a limit.

 

The question is how much? You can see it when it try's to get further north it gets squeezed to the ENE once it gains latitude and goes off the coast around the delmarva

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The question is how much? You can see it when it try's to get further north it gets squeezed to the ENE once it gains latitude and goes off the coast around the delmarva

 

Yeah I don't think it can go much further north...perhaps another tick (like the Ukie maybe if everything favored it?)...I think that is about the northern limit. The confluence is quite potent and the whole thing is going to get shunted east as it tries to amplify into that confluence.

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Yeah I don't think it can go much further north...perhaps another tick (like the Ukie maybe if everything favored it?)...I think that is about the northern limit. The confluence is quite potent and the whole thing is going to get shunted east as it tries to amplify into that confluence.

 

The Ukie looked even though we could not see in between hr 72 to 96 like it was pretty far north, Northern outlier it seems but all the other guidance seem to be heading in that direction my guess is probably a tic or two more and that may be the extent

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