ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 maybe every other model got better so it made them look good before and we realize they are not that great now? They are definitely better than a decade ago...if you had been forecasting back then you'd notice the difference. The model scores are solidly higher if you go back in the verification archives. The SREFs are one set of guidance that used to be decent in winter events, but seemed to have regressed, but they perform better elswhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA425 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015...A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAYMORNING FOR CAPE ANN AND CAPE COD ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY COLDWIND CHILLS DEVELOPING IN THE INTERIOR......A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTOMONDAY...CTZ002-003-MAZ011-310530-/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0004.150202T0000Z-150203T0600Z//O.CON.KBOX.WC.Y.0003.150131T0600Z-150131T1400Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...SPRINGFIELD425 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM ESTSATURDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATEMONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATEMONDAY NIGHT.* LOCATIONS...THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF HARTFORD...WINDSORLOCKS...UNION...VERNON AND SPRINGFIELD.* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 16 BELOW.* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WINDCHILL INDEX OF -20.* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.* OTHER IMPACTS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHTINTO MONDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OFACCUMULATING SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8OR MORE INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX ISLIKELY TO REACH -15 TO -24 DEGREES FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS.FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN JUST 30 MINUTES WITH A WIND CHILL INDEXOF -20. IF YOU ARE HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR AHAT AND GLOVES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 maybe every other model got better so it made them look good before and we realize they are not that great now? Well I'm talkling only about 4-5 years ago for the SREFs...when they switched the ETA and RSM members out of the ensemble. Those were more skillful in winter synoptic events than the current set which seemed to be more geared toward convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Nah...the SREFs went downhill when they made wholescale changes to them by ditching the Eta and RSM in favor of all of that high res WRF garbage. They shouldn't even be run past 36hr anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 WSWs are also below the wind chill advisories as they trump watches attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well I'm talkling only about 4-5 years ago for the SREFs...when they switched the ETA and RSM members out of the ensemble. Those were more skillful in winter synoptic events than the current set which seemed to be more geared toward convection.Too bad they could not run 2 sets. One for the thunderstorm crowd and one for winter. Not like they need much computing power. A TRS-80 should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks like some nice mid-level banding for us this run. Yeah good run get a couple others to bump north and lock it in 0z should h I've us an indication of where it will go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 THE NAM AND PARALLEL NAM HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A MORE NORTHWARD TREND THATPOSES A CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOME COASTAL SECTIONS This is the first I am hearing of this. Parallel NAM? Are they referring to the high-res NAM or a new version of the NAM that is in experimental phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's like coke and crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow that's a nice look on the NAM here. Looks like I might be working from home Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOL - best AFD ever? AND HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH A STORM. GOING DOWN ALL THE GUIDANCE EVER KNOWN. LIKE A DRIFTER I AM LOST ABOUT THIS STORM. SO I`VE MADE UP MY MIND. I`M ENSEMBLE BLENDING THIS TIME. SO HERE WE GO AGAIN. Meanwhile OKX uses a Great White reference lol j/k but it would go something like this "Once Bitten, Twice Shy" Well the times are getting hard for you, OKXI'm a snowin and a blowin all over your world You can't remember when you got your last forecast right And you don't know just how a good forecast feels My, my, my, Your once bitten, twice shy, baby My, my, my, Your once bitten, twice shy, baby My, my, my, Your once bitten, twice shy, baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 gfs more amped seems more in line with the nam now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 not in the WSW.. weird.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow at the GFS for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS NW and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ouch, Ginx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's a good track for pike regarding 850 low. Any more north and it's a front end dump then dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 There's a great run for SNE...those ticks north are not surprising given the vortmax tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 10000% agree ORH, I've been looking at the data all day. The low placement made 0 sense when you look at the vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 10000% agree ORH, I've been looking at the data all day. The low placement made 0 sense when you look at the vortmax. when the airmass is really frigid with tightly packed height lines, the sfc low can be displaced a decent amount SE...but in this case, it was probably too much. It's not like the vortmax was weak...if the vortmax has some punch to it like this one, then you'll usually see the low position correct toward it. That said, there's only so much room for this to amplify because if you look as late as 54 hours or even 60 hours, there's still a ton of confluence north of NNE...so it has a limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 FWIW They have to earn my trust back Before I weenie out over their snow maps again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That's a good track for pike regarding 850 low. Any more north and it's a front end dump then dryslot. Which we really don't want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 when the airmass is really frigid with tightly packed height lines, the sfc low can be displaced a decent amount SE...but in this case, it was probably too much. It's not like the vortmax was weak...if the vortmax has some punch to it like this one, then you'll usually see the low position correct toward it. That said, there's only so much room for this to amplify because if you look as late as 54 hours or even 60 hours, there's still a ton of confluence north of NNE...so it has a limit. Well unfortunately it was enough for Philly to get screwed, but should be awesome for you guys, GL. We had our winter last yr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Ouch, Ginx Have a personal bias on them if you know what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 when the airmass is really frigid with tightly packed height lines, the sfc low can be displaced a decent amount SE...but in this case, it was probably too much. It's not like the vortmax was weak...if the vortmax has some punch to it like this one, then you'll usually see the low position correct toward it. That said, there's only so much room for this to amplify because if you look as late as 54 hours or even 60 hours, there's still a ton of confluence north of NNE...so it has a limit. The question is how much? You can see it when it try's to get further north it gets squeezed to the ENE once it gains latitude and goes off the coast around the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well unfortunately it was enough for Philly to get screwed, but should be awesome for you guys, GL. We had our winter last yr. Doesn't Philly get like a foot of snow on that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The question is how much? You can see it when it try's to get further north it gets squeezed to the ENE once it gains latitude and goes off the coast around the delmarva Yeah I don't think it can go much further north...perhaps another tick (like the Ukie maybe if everything favored it?)...I think that is about the northern limit. The confluence is quite potent and the whole thing is going to get shunted east as it tries to amplify into that confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Doesn't Philly get like a foot of snow on that run? Nope. We get like a few inches of front end snow, but GFS is a disaster, if you know Philly snow this setup is not what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah I don't think it can go much further north...perhaps another tick (like the Ukie maybe if everything favored it?)...I think that is about the northern limit. The confluence is quite potent and the whole thing is going to get shunted east as it tries to amplify into that confluence. The Ukie looked even though we could not see in between hr 72 to 96 like it was pretty far north, Northern outlier it seems but all the other guidance seem to be heading in that direction my guess is probably a tic or two more and that may be the extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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