SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol....it is every bit a swfe. It's a bastardized SWFE, if this event was a language it would be Maltese, it doesn't really have a home as a true type of system, not a nor'easter not a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not torn until around March 15th. I figure that's the point it can stop snowing and start springing. Until then, lay it on me. Either way, my course doesn't open until the end of April at the earliest. Me either , Plenty of time before golf season to snowmobile until then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I mean I'd be happy if I got 4-8 inches of snow and then 2-4 of sleet on top. Any sleet into snowpack is good. This is about seeing what concensus is going to be correct on the northward extent. I find it fun dissecting it on a weather forum . Not sure why Typhoon Freud thought it was time to psychoanalyze. How long till he gets upset and chastises us for using swfe because it's not in His weather Thesaurus?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Easy tiger.. No one is taking your snow away. You'll still see some. It's just funny how Euro and ens have one semi bad storm and suddenly all confidence is lost in it and U.S. models suddenly are great. When in fact .. Which model actually saw the blizzard solution first?lol...sorry daddy.It was 2 bad storms for the euro up here. Low and behold it's on its own again. We're 36-48hr out now...not 4d. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No it isn't. A secondary ( weak reflection as it may be) forms . And if the camp of a CCB is right I challenge you to find one true swfe that had a CCB I would consider this a hybrid SWFE if it goes as generally modeled. It has many characteristics of a SWFE...mainly the ripping SW flow aloft (duh) until (if/when) we can close something off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol....it is every bit a swfe.hmm, anyways final Jan numbers at my house 39 inches of snow, about -3 temp. Feb looks to start where an epic Jan left off, Euro ten day is sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No it isn't. A secondary ( weak reflection as it may be) forms . And if the camp of a CCB is right I challenge you to find one true swfe that had a CCB Many do but typically further north than sne. There is always a surface low center jump but mid levels are separated west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's a bastardized SWFE, if this event was a language it would be Maltese, it doesn't really have a home as a true type of system, not a nor'easter not a SWFE.everything is swfe in here,definitely hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS is also on Ron Washington type sh*t at the surface. The coastal front is not going to be out in Princeton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm riding the Albany train. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/Past/Snow_PNS/WSW.htm Anyone else having problems attaching images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BTV WRF made sense FWIW. Has a narrow taint zone (which makes sense) even with the low passing over the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS is also on Ron Washington type sh*t at the surface. The coastal front is not going to be out in Princeton. yeah...almost 30 degrees in Lawrence, 5 in Concord NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GFS is also on Ron Washington type sh*t at the surface. The coastal front is not going to be out in Princeton. I think 2m temps will be way colder than modeled above waters edge on the southern coast of New England. They always are in swfe systems that go under us with strong fresh cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'll side with the colder euro. It could be wrong, but at worst I think we see a few hours of sleet here after a warning level snowfall. In the end, as long as its enough to cancel classes the day after the Superbowl... I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 yeah...almost 30 degrees in Lawrence, 5 in Concord NH. I reminds me of the time the GFS had 41F at the surface the whole storm at ORH for the December 2008 ice storm...lol. You would have forecasted a heavy rain event with no warnings if you had used the GFS profiles in tha one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think 2m temps will be way colder than modeled above waters edge on the southern coast of New England. They always are in swfe systems that go under us with strong fresh cold.Dendrites tossing of the Euro is as historical as this ten day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 24 inches at GYX. Golfer in me doesn't want to see a 36 inch depth come Tuesday morning, but the meteorologist in me says yes. More snow at GYX than Pittsburgh, NH right now. Not too often you see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think 2m temps will be way colder than modeled above waters edge on the southern coast of New England. They always are in swfe systems that go under us with strong fresh cold. I really like this model, and I think it is run off of GFS initial conditions? Anyways, I envision a thermal packing like this. http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Edit: WRF CORE with NAM initial conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'll side with the colder euro. It could be wrong, but at worst I think we see a few hours of sleet here after a warning level snowfall. In the end, as long as its enough to cancel classes the day after the Superbowl... I'm good As long as it snows when I get up for work and my boss decides to keep us home, I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dendrites tossing of the Euro is as historical as this ten day period.What are your ideas on extent of mix line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Easy tiger.. No one is taking your snow away. You'll still see some. It's just funny how Euro and ens have one semi bad storm and suddenly all confidence is lost in it and U.S. models suddenly are great. When in fact .. Which model actually saw the blizzard solution first? I've got 5" to show of a T-12 prog of 24-36". That's not "semi-bad", my friend. That's f*cking awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've got 5" to show of a T-12 prog of 24-36". That's not "semi-bad", my friend. That's f*cking awful. I'm fairly certain it didn't give you 24-36. I think it had you at 20-24 and that was on a weenie clown map, not the actual model verbatim, at any rate... This is the type of storm it has excelled at over the years. Let's see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dendrites tossing of the Euro is as historical as this ten day period.Not tossing it completely. I'm just making a point that it hasn't been too hot lately when on one extreme of the spectrum. I'm probably leaning on a blend right now. Some who tossed it in Juno are in love with it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I really like this model, and I think it is run off of GFS initial conditions? Anyways, I envision a thermal packing like this. http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Edit: WRF CORE with NAM initial conditions. That is a nice product. I know it's out of range but rpm for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've got 5" to show of a T-12 prog of 24-36". That's not "semi-bad", my friend. That's f*cking awful. Euro was absolutely awful with Juno....I'm having a hard time believing it's south look with this now. As its alone once again. Something is wrong with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm fairly certain it didn't give you 24-36. I think it had you at 20-24 and that was on a weenie clown map, not the actual model verbatim, at any rate... This is the type of storm it has excelled at over the years. Let's see what happensit had the band into WNE/NYC. How much fell under that quasistationary band again? Oh yeah...24-36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RPM gets mix well up into SNH lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've got 5" to show of a T-12 prog of 24-36". That's not "semi-bad", my friend. That's f*cking awful. I'm fairly certain it didn't give you 24-36. I think it had you at 20-24 and that was on a weenie clown map, not the actual model verbatim, at any rate... This is the type of storm it has excelled at over the years. Let's see what happens Let me revise then: I've got 5" to show of a T-12 modeld 20-24". That's not "semi-bad", my friend. That's f*cking awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherWilly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will not, I can not believe, taint will make it to the mass border...............here on the other hand I'm in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 it had the band into WNE/NYC. How much fell under that quasistationary band again? Oh yeah...24-36".Again.. You'll get some snow out of this. So there's nothing to worry about.. But it's ok to think the Euro could be right on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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