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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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I'm not torn until around March 15th.  I figure that's the point it can stop snowing and start springing.  Until then, lay it on me.  Either way, my course doesn't open until the end of April at the earliest.  smileys-golf-838097.gif

 

Me either , Plenty of time before golf season to snowmobile until then

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I mean I'd be happy if I got 4-8 inches of snow and then 2-4 of sleet on top. Any sleet into snowpack is good. This is about seeing what concensus is going to be correct on the northward extent. I find it fun dissecting it on a weather forum . Not sure why Typhoon Freud thought it was time to psychoanalyze. How long till he gets upset and chastises us for using swfe because it's not in His weather Thesaurus?.

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Easy tiger.. No one is taking your snow away. You'll still see some. It's just funny how Euro and ens have one semi bad storm and suddenly all confidence is lost in it and U.S. models suddenly are great. When in fact .. Which model actually saw the blizzard solution first?

lol...sorry daddy.

It was 2 bad storms for the euro up here. Low and behold it's on its own again. We're 36-48hr out now...not 4d.

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No it isn't. A secondary ( weak reflection as it may be) forms . And if the camp of a CCB is right I challenge you to find one true swfe that had a CCB

I would consider this a hybrid SWFE if it goes as generally modeled. It has many characteristics of a SWFE...mainly the ripping SW flow aloft (duh) until (if/when) we can close something off.

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No it isn't. A secondary ( weak reflection as it may be) forms . And if the camp of a CCB is right I challenge you to find one true swfe that had a CCB

Many do but typically further north than sne. There is always a surface low center jump but mid levels are separated west.

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The GFS is also on Ron Washington type sh*t at the surface. The coastal front is not going to be out in Princeton.

I think 2m temps will be way colder than modeled above waters edge on the southern coast of New England. They always are in swfe systems that go under us with strong fresh cold.

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yeah...almost 30 degrees in Lawrence, 5 in Concord NH.

 

 

I reminds me of the time the GFS had 41F at the surface the whole storm at ORH for the December 2008 ice storm...lol. You would have forecasted a heavy rain event with no warnings if you had used the GFS profiles in tha one.

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I think 2m temps will be way colder than modeled above waters edge on the southern coast of New England. They always are in swfe systems that go under us with strong fresh cold.

 

I really like this model, and I think it is run off of GFS initial conditions? Anyways, I envision a thermal packing like this.

 

http://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf

 

Edit: WRF CORE with NAM initial conditions.

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I'll side with the colder euro. It could be wrong, but at worst I think we see a few hours of sleet here after a warning level snowfall.

In the end, as long as its enough to cancel classes the day after the Superbowl... I'm good

As long as it snows when I get up for work and my boss decides to keep us home, I'm good.

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Easy tiger.. No one is taking your snow away. You'll still see some. It's just funny how Euro and ens have one semi bad storm and suddenly all confidence is lost in it and U.S. models suddenly are great. When in fact .. Which model actually saw the blizzard solution first?

 

I've got 5" to show of a T-12 prog of 24-36". 

 

That's not "semi-bad", my friend.  That's f*cking awful.

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I've got 5" to show of a T-12 prog of 24-36".

That's not "semi-bad", my friend. That's f*cking awful.

I'm fairly certain it didn't give you 24-36. I think it had you at 20-24 and that was on a weenie clown map, not the actual model verbatim, at any rate... This is the type of storm it has excelled at over the years. Let's see what happens
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Dendrites tossing of the Euro is as historical as this ten day period.

Not tossing it completely. I'm just making a point that it hasn't been too hot lately when on one extreme of the spectrum. I'm probably leaning on a blend right now. Some who tossed it in Juno are in love with it again.
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I'm fairly certain it didn't give you 24-36. I think it had you at 20-24 and that was on a weenie clown map, not the actual model verbatim, at any rate... This is the type of storm it has excelled at over the years. Let's see what happens

it had the band into WNE/NYC. How much fell under that quasistationary band again? Oh yeah...24-36".
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I've got 5" to show of a T-12 prog of 24-36". 

 

That's not "semi-bad", my friend.  That's f*cking awful.

 

 

I'm fairly certain it didn't give you 24-36. I think it had you at 20-24 and that was on a weenie clown map, not the actual model verbatim, at any rate... This is the type of storm it has excelled at over the years. Let's see what happens

 

Let me revise then:

 

I've got 5" to show of a T-12 modeld 20-24". 

 

That's not "semi-bad", my friend.  That's f*cking awful.

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