psuskiteam Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That would be something on top of what you've got. 2"+ qpf If only... would be a 50 inch snowpack! We had about 4 inches OTG before the 30" on Tuesday followed by about 2" yesterday. GFS says 18" isn't out of reach here assuming 15:1 ratios. Guessing we end up with closer to 10-15 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Will watching a movie and saw your response 100% agree. At one point we used to say it took models a bit to understand how strong the cold was. Maybe 0z... Regardless great system pike north a little south of there is more of a toss up and here meh unless we get the ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe a 3rd straight euro failure will finally work in my favor. Tell me about it. If only... would be a 50 inch snowpack! We had about 4 inches OTG before the 30" on Tuesday followed by about 2" yesterday. GFS says 18" isn't out of reach here assuming 15:1 ratios. Guessing we end up with closer to 10-15 range. That's quite an assumption. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't know why it would be. Maybe you're right and it sleets/zr to ORh/BOS line..but my guess is it stays south coast and even then only for a few hours I'm not sure it will sleet to ORH/BOS, but I'm pretty confident it sleets further north than what the Euro shows. That's about 100 miles of real estate between the pike and the south coast...the Euro keeps it snow down there, so anywhere within that 100 miles is north of where the Euro depicts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 please do, such problems,where to put snow, what's the depth 24 inches at GYX. Golfer in me doesn't want to see a 36 inch depth come Tuesday morning, but the meteorologist in me says yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well it's no longer on it's own...the 18z RGEM agrees and so does the NAM (even though the NAM is pretty useless still). We actually only have the Euro that keeps the south coast mostly or all snow...the GGEM maybe but probably a bit inland from the south coast. My guess is the Euro is too cold. 18z NAM didn't show sleet getting to ORH-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BTV hoists the watch flag Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT305 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015NYZ034-035-VTZ008>012-018-019-011000-/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0005.150202T0900Z-150203T0000Z/WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON305 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM MONDAYEVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PMMONDAY EVENING.* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...SLOW TRAVEL OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 1 BELOW TO 9 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 5 TO 11 ABOVE ON MONDAY.* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM didn't show sleet getting to ORH-BOS. Not too far south of BOS-ORH...semantics...it's in the warmer camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How were Euro Ens? If they were close to the op.. I think we've got final Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 24 inches at GYX. Golfer in me doesn't want to see a 36 inch depth come Tuesday morning, but the meteorologist in me says yes. Torn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are you asking what the GFS shows or an opinion on how it actually evolves? You should stay cold the entire event...wouldn't worry about plain rain. The GFS may show it, but it's almost always too warm in the BL. Wouldn't rule how some fzra up your way...but really even on the warmer solutions you should be mostly snow and sleet. Sent from my iPhone Yea was asking a pros opinion not what gfs shows. Thank you. I can deal with sleet just not zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How were Euro Ens? If they were close to the op.. I think we've got finalThey were close to the op for the last 2 systems. How'd that work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't mind a little sleet. They'll be quite a bit of QPF beforehand, and I'll probably get a nice parting gift. I like my spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not sure it will sleet to ORH/BOS, but I'm pretty confident it sleets further north than what the Euro shows. That's about 100 miles of real estate between the pike and the south coast...the Euro keeps it snow down there, so anywhere within that 100 miles is north of where the Euro depicts it. I'm pretty sure the real motivation there is fear. Fear of having the pellet line surpass his latitude, he's got to start spinning the facts of the runs to hide his head inside a safe bag of lies. People? who cares - really. You get a forecast of 12" and it mutes to 8 with crust of sleet and ZR... so what? You wake up the next day, dust off, pretty good storm and move on. Good lord. This pining over nuances in run to run stuff, for fear of losing an inch comes off and highly unhealthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Kevin, man up and stop being scared of sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuskiteam Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Tell me about it. That's quite an assumption. lol lol... not a prediction by any means. But north of the MA-NH line, ratios should be good for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This should have a strong CF too. Probably somewhere just NW of BOS for a little while before trending SE. Eastern areas should have some decent ocean effect precip after 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does the temp get above freezing on the S. Coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 24 inches at GYX. Golfer in me doesn't want to see a 36 inch depth come Tuesday morning, but the meteorologist in me says yes. Torn I'm not torn until around March 15th. I figure that's the point it can stop snowing and start springing. Until then, lay it on me. Either way, my course doesn't open until the end of April at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 They were close to the op for the last 2 systems. How'd that work out?Easy tiger.. No one is taking your snow away. You'll still see some. It's just funny how Euro and ens have one semi bad storm and suddenly all confidence is lost in it and U.S. models suddenly are great. When in fact .. Which model actually saw the blizzard solution first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm pretty sure the real motivation is there is fear. Fear of having the pellet line surpass his latitude, he's got to start spinning the facts of the runs to hide his head inside a safe bag of lies. People? who cares - really. You get a forecast of 12" and it mutes to 8 with crust of sleet and ZR... so what? You wake up the next day, dust off, pretty good storm and move on. Good lord. This pining of nuances in run to run stuff, for fear of losing an inch comes off and highly unhealthy. I agree about the fear of sleet in here...it's overwhelmingly psychotic to me. But to be fair, we are a psychotic bunch. But in reality it doesn't really change that much for a majority of folks in this system outside the south coast...9" instead of 12" or whatever, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I don't mind a little sleet. They'll be quite a bit of QPF beforehand, and I'll probably get a nice parting gift. I like my spot. I like that area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 They were close to the op for the last 2 systems. How'd that work out? They weren't as close to the Op last system as many would have had you believe. Phil posted that when you took a close look that many members were leaning right on where the low would form but most people including me didn't notice it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Kevin, man up and stop being scared of sleet!i like sleet and want it. It helps keep pack. Everyone knows that. To me this is just an interesting discussion because this is not really s swfe . With a coastal popping it doesn't perform like one as one expects. I think some folks think this a normal swfe and are basing hunches on that . This is a setup in the Euro's wheelhouse. And because it was 100 miles too far west in s blizzard people are discounting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm pretty sure the real motivation there is fear. Fear of having the pellet line surpass his latitude, he's got to start spinning the facts of the runs to hide his head inside a safe bag of lies. People? who cares - really. You get a forecast of 12" and it mutes to 8 with crust of sleet and ZR... so what? You wake up the next day, dust off, pretty good storm and move on. Good lord. This pining over nuances in run to run stuff, for fear of losing an inch comes off and highly unhealthy. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Easy tiger.. No one is taking your snow away. You'll still see some. It's just funny how Euro and ens have one semi bad storm and suddenly all confidence is lost in it and U.S. models suddenly are great. When in fact .. Which model actually saw the blizzard solution first?The lesson gleaned from the blizz should be to not ignore other guidance trending away from the euro, regardless of how steadfast it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i like sleet and want it. It helps keep pack. Everyone knows that. To me this is just an interesting discussion because this is not really s swfe . With a coastal it doesn't perform like one as one expects. I think some folks think this a normal swfe and are basing hunches on that . This is a setup in the Euro's wheelhouse. And because it was 100 miles too far west in s blizzard people are discounting it Lol....it is every bit a swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 i like sleet and want it. It helps keep pack. Everyone knows that. To me this is just an interesting discussion because this is not really s swfe . With a coastal it doesn't perform like one as one expects. I think some folks think this a normal swfe and are basing hunches on that . This is a setup in the Euro's wheelhouse. And because it was 100 miles too far west in s blizzard people are discounting it The only difference is that there's enough energy in the base of the H5 trough for a potential parting gift...sort of a CCB, though it remains to be seen how intense. But the front part of this sytem is very much the same as a typical SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This isn't a classic SWFE though. No SE ridge, and if 850 slides south of us, easterly flow isn't our classic SWFE. However, flow from 800-500 is screaming SW. So, it certainly has some characteristics of a SWFE, but not a classic one. What's causing the northerly drifts is the strong s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol....it is every bit a swfe.No it isn't. A secondary ( weak reflection as it may be) forms . And if the camp of a CCB is right I challenge you to find one true swfe that had a CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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