CT Valley Snowman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 if the GFS comes in again at 18 Z with another similar evolution that it's really starting to look like the euro is playing catch up . We could end up with a 6 to 8 with a lot of taint to the south of the pike if these trends verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Going with 6-10" locally 12" for all of CT right now given that these things usually like to tick a little colder in the last 24, if tomorrow's 12zs don't cool a bit though we'll probably slice the south coast some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 if the GFS comes in again at 18 Z with another similar evolution that it's really starting to look like the euro is playing catch up . We could end up with a 6 to 8 with a lot of taint to the south of the pike if these trends verify. Barring a sharp change to cold on this run of the GFS, I'd be very skeptical of the Euro at this point. It does very much appear to be a trap like it was for NYC etc just a few days ago. I like the step BOX took here at 4pm, I think that's a very wise hedge for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Box map makes sense to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I remeber before the blizzard the worry here was SE mass would mix or rain. That didn't work out too well. Neither will the nam there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm really missing my old Maine stomping grounds this season. This winter anyways i bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Barring a sharp change to cold on this run of the GFS, I'd be very skeptical of the Euro at this point. It does very much appear to be a trap like it was for NYC etc just a few days ago. I like the step BOX took here at 4pm, I think that's a very wise hedge for now. This will be the ultimate revenge for the Euro, nobody will buy it this time and it'll end up being right. I joked about this 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 True but this is a lot of models over the last 12-24 hours lousing north. I wonder again if it not for the Euro being so cold/south if everyone would be as gangbusters in the bottom 1/3 of SNE??? Part if it is definitely the Euro...though the GGEM was not nearly as warm as the American guidance. We'll see, sometimes these things will over-trend a bit and then sink back S in the final 36h...so when discussing the forecast, you sometimes do not want to start "projecting" a trend forward just because it went a certain way the last 4 or 5 runs. That said, my experience with these events is usually to bring the sleet further north than not. I would expect the Euro is too cold right now. But some of these uber-amped runs may be a bit overdone. We have to remember the airmass this thing is trying to advect into. Kind of a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Barring a sharp change to cold on this run of the GFS, I'd be very skeptical of the Euro at this point. It does very much appear to be a trap like it was for NYC etc just a few days ago. I like the step BOX took here at 4pm, I think that's a very wise hedge for now. Just an end to the warmer solutions on the GFS, let alone even a slightly cooler one, would help to put more credence in the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I remeber before the blizzard the worry here was SE mass would mix or rain. That didn't work out too well. Neither will the nam there I was thinking the exact same thing too...all the talk of SE Mass and the Cape getting alot of rain and mix and it never verified even cloe to the warmer side of the guidance for them or SE CT. So who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 True but this is a lot of models over the last 12-24 hours lousing north. I wonder again if it not for the Euro being so cold/south if everyone would be as gangbusters in the bottom 1/3 of SNE??? Who is gangbusters in the bottom 1/3 of SNE? This looks like. 6-8" type deal in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BOX 4PM DISCUSSION: .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS...* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERODETAILS...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUNNIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERNCANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THEARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE. THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THEREGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. BIGGESTUNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OFMIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ONPOSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTYSNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUNEVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OFTHE REGION. EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOWSNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY. SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNINGAT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING ANDAFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIRTO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZINGRAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVYSNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE INBETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THEMODELS. RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLYNEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCECORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILLCHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING. GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS ANDVERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSSEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS. BULK OF SNOWSHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINESWE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THEREGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUESMAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC. 8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THEREGION. HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTONNORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIABEING MET. AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MOREUNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS. IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREASMAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLYPOSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THEWINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOWNORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAYINTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENTINCREASES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITHBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONGTHE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORTTIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANYLOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLSVALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILLLIKELY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This will be the ultimate revenge for the Euro, nobody will buy it this time and it'll end up being right. I joked about this 5 days ago. It has hardly been steadfast in the run-up to this. Might it's cooler depiction play out? Sure, but it's not reflective of what it was portraying 24 or 48 hours ago. 11.4/-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It has hardly been steadfast in the run-up to this. Might it's cooler depiction play out? Sure, but it's not reflective of what it was portraying 24 or 48 hours ago. 11.4/-5 Has any model though? They have all been jumping around and we've seen some pretty big shifts close in here. The euro has jumped around the least. Whether that is a product of it inching towards trends, or it being correct, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As usual, I'm in the question mark zone... I have a feeling I'll here some sleet knocking up against the vinyl siding. Should create a nice snow pack though with what we already have on the ground here in the East Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Has any model though? They have all been jumping around and we've seen some pretty big shifts close in here. The euro has jumped around the least. Whether that is a product of it inching towards trends, or it being correct, who knows. I have the feeling we won't know where the taint line will be until tomorrow afternoon in the modeling. Again, there's an unusual situation going on with fresh snow pack and a pool of fresh arctic air in place right after a big storm and a small clipper. The Euro might have a better handle on the situation. Who knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuskiteam Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Very happy with the northern trend over the past 24 hrs... taken verbatim, a very strong hit for southern NH. Butt cold during the event, hopefully will equate to some good snow/liquid ratios. A few of the SREF members really bring a lot of precip up here (with one absurd outlier). It not quite within useful range but interesting nonetheless. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150131&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ASH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.63775042743162&mLON=-73.94353038892746&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I am not happy with the north trend. Usually when cne and nne start getting in on the action, we taint here in coastal sw ct. Would like to start seeing the se ticks that Juno got tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS holds serve. Tries to get the CCB going as it exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is still warm like 12z...gets sleet to the MA/CT border and over to near or just south of BOS at the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe a 3rd straight euro failure will finally work in my favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man, veritable ground blizzards occuring here with blowing snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Very happy with the northern trend over the past 24 hrs... taken verbatim, a very strong hit for southern NH. Butt cold during the event, hopefully will equate to some good snow/liquid ratios. A few of the SREF members really bring a lot of precip up here (with one absurd outlier). It not quite within useful range but interesting nonetheless. That would be something on top of what you've got. 2"+ qpf Even the lower cluster there is near 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is still warm like 12z...gets sleet to the MA/CT border and over to near or just south of BOS at the peak. Do you think we zr and rain in sw ct? Or does it say all snow and sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As BOX said..it's GFS vs the world getting sleet to ORH-BOS..so if you want to put yourself in that lonely hot air balloon..feel free... With everything else keeping it right along south coast..I know what balloon I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS holds serve. Tries to get the CCB going as it exits. Get that to happen a hair sooner, Still a pretty good thump for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I know what balloon I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As BOX said..it's GFS vs the world getting sleet to ORH-BOS..so if you want to put yourself in that lonely hot air balloon..feel free... With everything else keeping it right along south coast..I know what balloon I'm in Well it's no longer on it's own...the 18z RGEM agrees and so does the NAM (even though the NAM is pretty useless still). We actually only have the Euro that keeps the south coast mostly or all snow...the GGEM maybe but probably a bit inland from the south coast. My guess is the Euro is too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Do you think we zr and rain in sw ct? Or does it say all snow and sleet? Are you asking what the GFS shows or an opinion on how it actually evolves? You should stay cold the entire event...wouldn't worry about plain rain. The GFS may show it, but it's almost always too warm in the BL. Wouldn't rule how some fzra up your way...but really even on the warmer solutions you should be mostly snow and sleet. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well it's no longer on it's own...the 18z RGEM agrees and so does the NAM (even though the NAM is pretty useless still). We actually only have the Euro that keeps the south coast mostly or all snow...the GGEM maybe but probably a bit inland from the south coast. My guess is the Euro is too cold. I don't know why it would be. Maybe you're right and it sleets/zr to ORh/BOS line..but my guess is it stays south coast and even then only for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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