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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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if the GFS comes in again at 18 Z with another similar evolution that it's really starting to look like the euro is playing catch up . We could end up with a 6 to 8 with a lot of taint to the south of the pike if these trends verify.

 

Barring a sharp change to cold on this run of the GFS, I'd be very skeptical of the Euro at this point.  It does very much appear to be a trap like it was for NYC etc just a few days ago.  I like the step BOX took here at 4pm, I think that's a very wise hedge for now.

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Barring a sharp change to cold on this run of the GFS, I'd be very skeptical of the Euro at this point. It does very much appear to be a trap like it was for NYC etc just a few days ago. I like the step BOX took here at 4pm, I think that's a very wise hedge for now.

This will be the ultimate revenge for the Euro, nobody will buy it this time and it'll end up being right. I joked about this 5 days ago.

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True but this is a lot of models over the last 12-24 hours lousing north.  I wonder again if it not for the Euro being so cold/south if everyone would be as gangbusters in the bottom 1/3 of SNE???

 

 

 

Part if it is definitely the Euro...though the GGEM was not nearly as warm as the American guidance.

 

We'll see, sometimes these things will over-trend a bit and then sink back S in the final 36h...so when discussing the forecast, you sometimes do not want to start "projecting" a trend forward just because it went a certain way the last 4 or 5 runs.

 

That said, my experience with these events is usually to bring the sleet further north than not. I would expect the Euro is too cold right now.

 

But some of these uber-amped runs may be a bit overdone. We have to remember the airmass this thing is trying to advect into. Kind of a fine line.

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Barring a sharp change to cold on this run of the GFS, I'd be very skeptical of the Euro at this point.  It does very much appear to be a trap like it was for NYC etc just a few days ago.  I like the step BOX took here at 4pm, I think that's a very wise hedge for now.

Just an end to the warmer solutions on the GFS, let alone even a slightly cooler one, would help to put more credence in the king.

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I remeber before the blizzard the worry here was SE mass would mix or rain. That didn't work out too well. Neither will the nam there

I was thinking the exact same thing too...all the talk of SE Mass and the Cape getting alot of rain and mix and it never verified even cloe to the warmer side of the guidance for them or SE CT.  So who knows? 

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BOX 4PM DISCUSSION:

 

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR WINTER STORM VERY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING
* HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
* BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY SNOWFALL AMTS NEAR SOUTH COAST - PTYPE ISSUES
* BITTERLY COLD AIR LATE MON NIGHT - WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO

DETAILS...

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE RESULT WILL BE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER RUNNING THE
ARCTIC DOME AT THE SURFACE. THEN AS THE LOW DEEPENS...MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. BIGGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW MUCH OF THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO A PERIOD OF
MIXED PTYPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENT...CUTTING DOWN ON
POSSIBLE SNOW ACCUMS.

1) TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY

SNOW WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST VERY LATE SUN
EVENING IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION. EXTREMELY TIGHT MID LEVEL THERMAL PACKING WILL ALLOW
SNOW TO QUICKLY BECOME HEAVY. SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY MONDAY MORNING
AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE AM RUSH HOUR.

THINGS THEN BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SURGING WARM MID LEVEL AIR
TO THE MA PIKE...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE NAM/ECMWF/GGEM APPEAR THE COLDEST KEEPING MOST AREAS HEAVY
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE IN
BETWEEN THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL BLEND THE
MODELS. RIGHT NOW WERE THINKING TRANSITION AREA MAY GET BRIEFLY
NEAR OR PERHAPS JUST NORTH OF THE THE TAUNTON TO PROVIDENCE
CORRIDOR...BEFORE COLLAPSING SOUTHEAST.

REGARDLESS HOW FAR NORTH THE TRANSITION LINE GETS...MOST AREAS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW MON EVENING. GIVEN CLOSED MID LEVEL CENTERS AND
VERY COLD NORTHEAST FLOW...COULD BE SOME OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ACROSS
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS. BULK OF SNOW
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE GGEM IS A BIT SLOWER.

2) SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HEADLINES

WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH COAST WHERE PTYPE ISSUES
MAYBE MORE PROBLEMATIC. 8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE UPGRADED ALL AREAS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON
NORTHWARD TO WINTER STORM WARNING/S WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CRITERIA
BEING MET. AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE...THERE IS SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY ESP CAPE/ISLANDS. IF A LOT OF MIXING OCCURS THESE AREAS
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA...BUT ITS STILL CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS. THEREFORE...WE HAVE HELD THE
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST AND THE ISLANDS.

3) STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW

NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS STORM INTENSIFIES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE COAST COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A VERY SHORT
TIME...BUT STORM DOESN/T SEEM TO WARRANT THOSE TYPE OF HEADLINES.

4) BITTERLY COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY PLUNGE BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO IN MANY
LOCATIONS BY EARLY TUE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

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This will be the ultimate revenge for the Euro, nobody will buy it this time and it'll end up being right. I joked about this 5 days ago.

 

It has hardly been steadfast in the run-up to this.  Might it's cooler depiction play out?  Sure, but it's not reflective of what it was portraying 24  or 48 hours ago.

 

11.4/-5

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It has hardly been steadfast in the run-up to this. Might it's cooler depiction play out? Sure, but it's not reflective of what it was portraying 24 or 48 hours ago.

11.4/-5

Has any model though? They have all been jumping around and we've seen some pretty big shifts close in here.

The euro has jumped around the least. Whether that is a product of it inching towards trends, or it being correct, who knows.

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Has any model though? They have all been jumping around and we've seen some pretty big shifts close in here.

The euro has jumped around the least. Whether that is a product of it inching towards trends, or it being correct, who knows.

I have the feeling we won't know where the taint line will be until tomorrow afternoon in the modeling.  Again, there's an unusual situation going on with fresh snow pack and a pool of fresh arctic air in place right after a big storm and a small clipper.  The Euro might have a better handle on the situation.  Who knows!

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Very happy with the northern trend over the past 24 hrs... taken verbatim, a very strong hit for southern NH. Butt cold during the event, hopefully will equate to some good snow/liquid ratios.

 

A few of the SREF members really bring a lot of precip up here (with one absurd outlier). It not quite within useful range but interesting nonetheless.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150131&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ASH&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=42.63775042743162&mLON=-73.94353038892746&mTYP=roadmap

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Very happy with the northern trend over the past 24 hrs... taken verbatim, a very strong hit for southern NH. Butt cold during the event, hopefully will equate to some good snow/liquid ratios.

 

A few of the SREF members really bring a lot of precip up here (with one absurd outlier). It not quite within useful range but interesting nonetheless.

That would be something on top of what you've got.  2"+ qpf  :santa:

Even the lower cluster there is near 1"

 

ash_sref.jpg

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As BOX said..it's GFS vs the world getting sleet to ORH-BOS..so if you want to put yourself in that lonely hot air balloon..feel free... With everything else keeping it right along south coast..I know what balloon I'm in

 

 

Well it's no longer on it's own...the 18z RGEM agrees and so does the NAM (even though the NAM is pretty useless still).

 

We actually only have the Euro that keeps the south coast mostly or all snow...the GGEM maybe but probably a bit inland from the south coast.

 

My guess is the Euro is too cold.

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Do you think we zr and rain in sw ct? Or does it say all snow and sleet?

Are you asking what the GFS shows or an opinion on how it actually evolves? You should stay cold the entire event...wouldn't worry about plain rain. The GFS may show it, but it's almost always too warm in the BL. Wouldn't rule how some fzra up your way...but really even on the warmer solutions you should be mostly snow and sleet.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Well it's no longer on it's own...the 18z RGEM agrees and so does the NAM (even though the NAM is pretty useless still).

 

We actually only have the Euro that keeps the south coast mostly or all snow...the GGEM maybe but probably a bit inland from the south coast.

 

My guess is the Euro is too cold.

I don't know why it would be. Maybe you're right and it sleets/zr to ORh/BOS line..but my guess is it stays south coast and even then only for a few hours

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