WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 actually what I said was times of blizzard conditions not verified 3 he blizzard but times where visibility is less than a 1/4 mile with 35 mph winds Exactly. And if we have the winds that BOX has in their Warning headline, I think this will absolutely be the case. If the winds don't kick up like they have forecasted then obviously it's a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe these maps are wrong...but that 0c is pretty far north for at least 6 hours during the peak. You need to look at the more detailed NCEP grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM taints from N CT to SE MA...it isn't that hard to read the maps. Maybe it verifies, maybe it doesn't but it doesn't make a big difference for anyone outside of those within 10-15 miles of the south coast where you'd probably have to slash accumulations to something like 4-7"...if you are on the northern 10-15 miles of the taint zone, all it does it add a few hours of pellets on top of the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM taints from N CT to SE MA...it isn't that hard to read the maps. Maybe it verifies, maybe it doesn't but it doesn't make a big difference anyone outside of those within 10-15 miles of the south coast where you'd probably have to slash accumulations to something like 4-7" :sarcasm: What, only 4-7" of snow? :sarcasm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 You need to look at the more detailed NCEP grids. For what, to confirm what I already know which is the 18z NAM was warmer than the 12z NAM...which is all that I really care about at 30+ hours on that model? Look at the 8h on the maps Bob posted. 0c is already pretty far north at 42 and 45 in CT, RI and into SE MA. Compared to the Euro, and the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe these maps are wrong...but that 0c is pretty far north for at least 6 hours during the peak. This 45 hr 850 temperature map from Ncep doesnt look nearly as dire: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM isn't in range until tomorrow really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BOX map updated. Basically just the morning map with the 10-14 band shifted north 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4pm Updated snow totals from BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Again...the NAM's smearing the sfc low east along the warm boundary is suspicious to me. This has a counter-intuitive effect of limiting the dynamics closer to the core, and packing in the thermal gradient would smash the mix zone very tightly along LI if otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z SREF probabilities of 1, 4, 8, 12 inches of snow at 00z Tuesday. We don't have much more room to put this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4pm Updated snow totals from BOX StormTotalSnowRange.png How they taunt me!!!! lol This is a tough time to be doing a major kitchen renovation. Walls ripped out (not that they had any insulation in them to begin with) and large holes in the walls awaiting windows. Break out the shawls, the Pit's damn cold. 12.4/-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam/ srefs are one in same. My guess sleet gets up to BDR over to pym but no more than that. And that's after 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 aww, shucks Whatever. Winter storm warning issued for 5-10. It could verifiy if its stops trending north, but that's a big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z SREF probabilities of 1, 4, 8, 12 inches of snow at 00z Tuesday. We don't have much more room to put this stuff.sref.png Kevin wants society to be haulted for a solid month of winter-dystopian horror Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam/ srefs are one in same. My guess sleet gets up to BDR over to pym but no more than that. And that's after 4-8 Not exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z SREF probabilities of 1, 4, 8, 12 inches of snow at 00z Tuesday. We don't have much more room to put this stuff.sref.png I was pushing it, I was pushing it real good as far back as it can go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z SREF probabilities of 1, 4, 8, 12 inches of snow at 00z Tuesday. We don't have much more room to put this stuff.sref.png Does that include all members, ARW included? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 actually what I said was times of blizzard conditions not verified 3 he blizzard but times where visibility is less than a 1/4 mile with 35 mph windsNear blizzard conditions is what I meant to type.....not near verified blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I was pushing it, I was pushing it real good as far back as it can go Between the 7 new inches of snow last night and the drifting, there's a 7-ft high drift on our road here at NWS as the snow blew out of Pineland. I'll see if I can get a pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Between the 7 new inches of snow last night and the drifting, there's a 7-ft high drift on our road here at NWS as the snow blew out of Pineland. I'll see if I can get a pic. Wow, lol, Pretty open there up on the nob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This 45 hr 850 temperature map from Ncep doesnt look nearly as dire: Exactly! In fact the -3C line on that detailed grid is almost where the less detailed map shows the 0C line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z RGEM is warm too...bring taint perhaps to the CT/MA border...maybe even tickles the pike, but hard to tell. It is at the end of it's range though, so I'd put a little less stock in it verses like a 12z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow, lol, Pretty open there up on the nob I'm really missing my old Maine stomping grounds this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z RGEM is warm too...bring taint perhaps to the CT/MA border...maybe even tickles the pike, but hard to tell. It is at the end of it's range though, so I'd put a little less stock in it verses like a 12z run tomorrow. True but this is a lot of models over the last 12-24 hours lousing north. I wonder again if it not for the Euro being so cold/south if everyone would be as gangbusters in the bottom 1/3 of SNE??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4pm Updated snow totals from BOX StormTotalSnowRange.png The northerly extent of the 8-10 inch line is as far as the 0C 850 gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Between the 7 new inches of snow last night and the drifting, there's a 7-ft high drift on our road here at NWS as the snow blew out of Pineland. I'll see if I can get a pic.please do, such problems,where to put snow, what's the depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are we starting to see a repeat of the blizzard depiction, where the other guidance moved east late and the Euro was slow to catch on? That would be too much to bare I fear. Lets see if the gfs continues this ugly trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 One thing about this pattern it's perfect to maintain pack in between snow storms especially in Maine. Wonder if all time depth records will fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 BOX is obviously biting on the warmer solutions as they just trimmed the south coast area by about 1/2 in one update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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