dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:38 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Just think about what you just wrote for a second. Do you think that BOX was able to see the 18z NAM prior to the rest of us than proceed to generate an in depth snow forecast than release that to the public. I was thinking the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:22 PM, moneypitmike said: Snow growth will be a big player in what accumulations will be. Cool temps by themselves do not generate good ratios. That's exactly why I'm worried, at least down this way. Too many times we have seen similar setups and so many become impressed with these other signals b/c they "sexy" but ignore or don't look at potential negatives. Just too many times we have seen similar but the snow growth signal sucked and we got screwed. There will probably be a narrow ribbon of like 8-12" but not over a widespread enough area IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 When is the RGEM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well it is happy hour.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:40 PM, moneypitmike said: When is the RGEM run? Soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not expecting more than 4" and expecting quite a bit of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:39 PM, dryslot said: It was a tock You love these tocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's the nam. Who cares. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:30 PM, Clinch Leatherwood said: Not on the best maps, but not a ton has fallen by 45 and the 0c is already approaching the MA/CT and MA/RI borders. YIKES On the NCEP 850 grid the 0C doesn't get much north of the canal over to south of PVD before collapsing after 2-3 hours. 925's are even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:42 PM, CoastalWx said: It's the nam. Who cares. Seriously. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:16 PM, WinterWolf said: Interesting, Box in its Winter Storm Watch mentions winds of 15-25mph, with gust to 40mph. And also talks about Blowing and Drifting snow. I remember Ginxy talking about the winds yesterday, and some dismissing the idea, saying the winds would be a non issue. Looks like BOX is thinking the winds could be an issue afterall. He said near blizzard....diff implication altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 OK...Sorry Gentleman. You all don't have to face palm all at once lol. The Warning is identical to the Watch, the only difference is they upped the amounts from 8-12 to 8-14 inches for the warning. And imo, they could have glanced at the 18z NAM, and just decided to disregard it, and go with their Warning like they did, and Change the heading from watch to warning. But I'm sure I'm probably wrong lol. No biggie...it's gone snow regardless so enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:42 PM, CoastalWx said: It's the nam. Who cares. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just saw the nam. Some of you made it sound like it would rain to Montreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:47 PM, CoastalWx said: Just saw the nam. Some of you made it sound like it would rain to Montreal. It's all in the delivery. Messenger is the best at making people jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM I thought was pretty warm too - had to be some sneaky warm layers in there until the backlash. I have a hunch it comes a twaddle NW this run, not a full tock, or louse....a twaddle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:47 PM, CoastalWx said: Just saw the nam. Some of you made it sound like it would rain to Montreal. Other then the south coast, It was a pretty cold run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:48 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: It's all in the delivery. Messenger is the best at making people jump. the Grim Reaper of Winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: He said near blizzard....diff implication altogether. Oh I know, but if you have mod-heavy snow falling and gusts to 45mph...it will look pretty similar to near blizzard conditions at times imo. Ofcoarse that is if those winds really do verify..it could look quite impressive for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:48 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: It's all in the delivery. Messenger is the best at making people jump. Maybe these maps are wrong...but that 0c is pretty far north for at least 6 hours during the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:32 PM, WinterWolf said: I guess BOX is disregarding the latest NAM. Why wouldn't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If Plymouth taints, we all taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: He said near blizzard....diff implication altogether.actually what I said was times of blizzard conditions not verified 3 he blizzard but times where visibility is less than a 1/4 mile with 35 mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:52 PM, CoastalWx said: If Plymouth taints, we all taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:32 PM, WinterWolf said: I guess BOX is disregarding the latest NAM. Not saying that they arent, but 850s dont make it into northern ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Why wouldn't they? I agree Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:52 PM, CoastalWx said: If Plymouth taints, we all taint. If the maps I posted are right - and maybe there's a glitch in their maps for 5-6 hours the 0c line is blasted way north through CT, RI and SE MA. As I said - "not the best maps" Weenies need Quaaludes' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:51 PM, Clinch Leatherwood said: Maybe these maps are wrong...but that 0c is pretty far north for at least 6 hours during the peak. Here are the 18z 12km images. This is as warm as they get. 0c 850 bisects SE MA across central bristol & plymouth counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:52 PM, CoastalWx said: If Plymouth taints, we all taint. you said....... ^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 On 1/31/2015 at 8:38 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Just think about what you just wrote for a second. Do you think that BOX was able to see the 18z NAM prior to the rest of us than proceed to generate an in depth snow forecast than release that to the public. To mention...they probably are not going to ever willfully ingest, then change their mind, off of any 18z run of that particular tool, even if the timing of all gave them an opportunity. Having said that, this run is actually better in the mid levels, with more negative tilt and a stronger v-max/wind max passing quintessentially perfect at 1.5 L S of the South Coast per climo. It's just that the surface leaves something to be desired... Should be more rapid and more coherent detonated center; its opting to string out/smear the low center along the warm boundary appears to be almost convectively fed-back to me. But.. its also just another SREF member really and doesn't mean a whole helluva a lot like others have also stated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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