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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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Snow growth will be a big player in what accumulations will be. Cool temps by themselves do not generate good ratios.

That's exactly why I'm worried, at least down this way. Too many times we have seen similar setups and so many become impressed with these other signals b/c they "sexy" but ignore or don't look at potential negatives. Just too many times we have seen similar but the snow growth signal sucked and we got screwed.

There will probably be a narrow ribbon of like 8-12" but not over a widespread enough area IMO

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Interesting,  Box in its Winter Storm Watch mentions winds of 15-25mph, with gust to 40mph.  And also talks about Blowing and Drifting snow.  I remember Ginxy talking about the winds yesterday, and some dismissing the idea, saying the winds would be a non issue.  Looks like BOX is thinking the winds could be an issue afterall.

He said near blizzard....diff implication altogether. 

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OK...Sorry Gentleman.  You all don't have to face palm all at once lol.  The Warning is identical to the Watch, the only difference is they upped the amounts from 8-12 to 8-14 inches for the warning.  And imo, they could have glanced at the 18z NAM, and just decided to disregard it, and go with their Warning like they did, and Change the heading from watch to warning.

 

But I'm sure I'm probably wrong lol.  No biggie...it's gone snow regardless so enjoy.

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Just think about what you just wrote for a second.

Do you think that BOX was able to see the 18z NAM prior to the rest of us than proceed to generate an in depth snow forecast than release that to the public.

  :facepalm:

 

To mention...they probably are not going to ever willfully ingest, then change their mind, off of any 18z run of that particular tool, even if the timing of all gave them an opportunity. 

 

Having said that, this run is actually better in the mid levels, with more negative tilt and a stronger v-max/wind max passing quintessentially perfect at 1.5 L S of the South Coast per climo.  It's just that the surface leaves something to be desired... Should be more rapid and more coherent detonated center; its opting to string out/smear the low center along the warm boundary appears to be almost convectively fed-back to me.  

 

But.. its also just another SREF member really and doesn't mean a whole helluva a lot like others have also stated...

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