Max Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM's coming in a louse more intense with the 500mb...trying to turn it negative sooner. So it's trying to go GGEM huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting, Box in its Winter Storm Watch mentions winds of 15-25mph, with gust to 40mph. And also talks about Blowing and Drifting snow. I remember Ginxy talking about the winds yesterday, and some dismissing the idea, saying the winds would be a non issue. Looks like BOX is thinking the winds could be an issue afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Windcredible makes a great point. Maybe the Euro is "caving" right now in it's slow as molasses manner? NAM looks like it might be en fuego based on first 32 Agreed, when you see the bastion of consistently repeatedly making moves north towards other guidance (which has also trended north), you have to assume it's trying to play catch-up ball. Kind of like trying to turn the Titanic out of the way of the ice burg--it just can't catch up in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well, the lift could be more of a problem down your way, but not where I am. Even so, 1" of QPF is going to net you 8" of snow. We may see QPF tic down, as i agree these are often faster than modeled, but I don't see how most of the area does not verify a warning. Just looked at 12z GFS sounding for BOS and it is more impressive looking than here in terms of better lift (higher omega) in the SGZ. Just want to reiterate thoughts are purely regarding CT and not speaking for the region as a whole. I even think 1'' QPF will be a bit of a stretch here and also the fact that I'm not anticipating good snow growth, it will be hard to muster up 8"+ even with QPF slightly below 1''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Phil says 12z Euro Ensemble mean remains on the southern side of today’s guidance. We pile it high and deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM's coming in a louse more intense with the 500mb...trying to turn it negative sooner. How much is a louse? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z Nam is going to be north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How much is a louse? lol A hair more than a midge, but a tad less than a grub. Depends if the louse is of the crab variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just looked at 12z GFS sounding for BOS and it is more impressive looking than here in terms of better lift (higher omega) in the SGZ. Just want to reiterate thoughts are purely regarding CT and not speaking for the region as a whole. I even think 1'' QPF will be a bit of a stretch here and also the fact that I'm not anticipating good snow growth, it will be hard to muster up 8"+ even with QPF slightly below 1''. Snow growth will be a big player in what accumulations will be. Cool temps by themselves do not generate good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM's coming in a louse more intense with the 500mb...trying to turn it negative sooner. Maybe we can close off H5 on the 0z run, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 A hair more than a midge, but a tad less than a grub. Depends if the louse is of the crab variety. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z Nam is going to be north of 12z I would argue its low position with respect to how H5 looks is not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 BOX issuing Warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Phil says 12z Euro Ensemble mean remains on the southern side of today’s guidance. King's either making himself comfortable again in the throne, feet up, drinking some ale....or it's about to choke again. NAM looks a lot warmer to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 323 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 ...A MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING... CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-026-RIZ001>004-010430- /O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0004.150202T0000Z-150203T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0005.150202T0200Z-150203T0600Z/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- EASTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD... ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON... SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD... CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH... AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH... WARWICK 323 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...INCLUDES MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COASTS. THE WARNING ALSO INCLUDES NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES EXPECTED. * TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS VERY LATE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. SNOW WILL FALL HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING AT 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...IMPACTING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is a torch by 45, 0c pushing well into CT/RI and MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not on the best maps, but not a ton has fallen by 45 and the 0c is already approaching the MA/CT and MA/RI borders. YIKES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is a torch by 45, 0c pushing well into CT/RI and MA I'm not in love with how the NAM looks on its 18z run. And also what happens in the plains tomorrow morning in terms with the northern and southern stream energies is more important on hammering in on a solution. This isn't so cut and dry as a regular SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I guess BOX is disregarding the latest NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 King's either making himself comfortable again in the throne, feet up, drinking some ale....or it's about to choke again. NAM looks a lot warmer to me. When the King once sat on its mighty throne, it would not have made the moves to other guidance in three successive runs 36 hours out from go time. How the mighty have fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not in love with how the NAM looks on its 18z run. And also what happens in the plains tomorrow morning in terms with the northern and southern stream energies is more important on hammering in on a solution. This isn't so cut and dry as a regular SWFE. It's the NAM so I don't put any stock into it until the other models confirm. But just commenting that this run is a disaster for many looking at the higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's the NAM so I don't put any stock into it until the other models confirm. But just commenting that this run is a disaster for many looking at the higher totals. To me it looks wrong from the get go on the model run. I'm not even considering it. The only thing that I like is that it showed more southern stream involvement early on in the run, but then after that it went with northern stream dominance. Makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not on the best maps, but not a ton has fallen by 45 and the 0c is already approaching the MA/CT and MA/RI borders. YIKES Cue all the "it's the NAM" commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not on the best maps, but not a ton has fallen by 45 and the 0c is already approaching the MA/CT and MA/RI borders. YIKES You'll need to see what falls in the following time period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's the nam. Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Cue all the "it's the NAM" commentary. It is. I'm guessing most won't put much stock in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How much is a louse? lol I was thinking a little less than a "tick" - ha, but then... I guess it's a full on tick at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I guess BOX is disregarding the latest NAM. Just think about what you just wrote for a second. Do you think that BOX was able to see the 18z NAM prior to the rest of us than proceed to generate an in depth snow forecast than release that to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It was a tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The NAM is very GGEM like first 24 hours, then all of a sudden it speeds up the system a lot the next 24 hours. I just don't buy it. What is causing the NAM to speed up all of a sudden after 24 hours out? I really do think the NAM shouldn't be used post-24 hours especially the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.