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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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Just took a closer look at the 12z GFS for KWST. Has 2m temps getting up to 39F for a while and 850mb temps up to 5C at the same time while the heaviest precip falls. If this is true wouldn't it be a few inches (2-4", .35" QPF) followed by lots of rain as 1.01" of QPF falls while 850s and 2m temps are above 0c, followed by a quick inch as the low pulls off to the east...?

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I must be completely missing something but I am really shocked at some of the forecasts out there.  I went with 4-7'' for much of CT with the exception of 2-4'' down across the southern portion of the state.  There just seems to be too many flags for my liking which I think will negate against a much more substantial event.  Speed of the system, lack of a pronounced mid-level circulation, not much lift in the best snow growth zone.  Maybe so many are gung ho b/c of the QPF but I just don't see anything justifying widespread 8" or even 12"+ amounts.  

Widespread 8" is certainly justified.

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The Euro is actually more like the NAM than the GFS or the GGEM. GGEM is the slowest with the GFS the next slowest and the NAM/EURO as the faster pair of models compared to the other two. And should we wait until inside 36 hours before talking about the RGEM? It's still on the periphery of its range in terms of with this storm.

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I still feel the 12z GFS is a bit too warm in the mid-levels.  Temps skyrocket like 8-10C in 6hrs.  I'm not convinced this cold airmass will be scoured out so easily. 

 

I see the 12z Euro nudged a bit warmer too but still remains cold for everyone N of the south coast.  For as bad as it was with the deformation band the other day, this is a completely different setup and one that it excels at imo.

 

The 12z GGEM is sort of in between the 2 camp with it leaning a hair in the Euro camp on temp profile.  Not a bad track/solution for most.

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The Euro is actually more like the NAM than the GFS or the GGEM. GGEM is the slowest with the GFS the next slowest and the NAM/EURO as the faster pair of models compared to the other two. And should we wait until inside 36 hours before talking about the RGEM? It's still on the periphery of its range in terms of with this storm.

Well, we saw what happened the last time the Euro and Nam were in the same camp.

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Pretty much your standard 8-12" SWFE where someone if the get lucky may see 14" but that is pretty much the max as this one just moves right along

 

This.

 

Hmm...

I see we are right back to the mindset of pretending the UK and CMC aren't real models, and that the NAM is.

 

LOL

 

Man, the more I look at this thing ...heh, long duration despite rapid translation of features.  It's because we relay one favorable mechanical setup (overrunning) right into one driven by cyclogenic processes... The whole thing is a solid 18 hours to play out... 

 

With such fantastic overrunning structures...would not be at all surprised if both uniform cirrus and lowering ceiling cuts to steady light snow prior to the models Sunday around game time.. and goes steady eddy until it gets windier/squallier and more banded associated with elevated meso features as the S/W mechanics pass over sometime on Monday/Monday evening. 

 

That GGEM solution was a quintessential snow-machine. Period.  I mean, it just squeezes a deeping low and associated elevated jet fields parabolically around the BL resistance of all this nascent cold air pumping into the lower thickness intervals, out of a polar-arctic high that is moving just perfectly in tandem across E Ontario.  You can't draft this stuff up any better....  Granted, there are other guidance' to rely upon, just sayin'

 

This X10.

 

We're looking very different now vs. 24 hours which was very different 48 hours ago.  The differences have all been north. That will stop at some point, but there's no indication we've hit that point yet.

 

As for me, I don't give a crap if it stops or not.  GC will finally verify a warning this winter, and I'm okay with that.  Maybe the final month of the season will lift it from the current D- grade (it's still passing because it's been cool).

 

13.5/-5

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Widespread 8" is certainly justified.

I just remember a few times in the past in similar setups many are beefy with totals and it doesnt verify. I'm not sure what it looks like outside of CT but bufkit soundings here show all the best omega well below the SGZ and the snow growth zone on the NAM and GFS aren't spectacular but not bad.

Outside of a narrow zone where enhanced loft helps I just think we will be looking at poor snow growth and crappy flakes for a good part. Not to mention the speed...maybe the heaviest precip is during a 5-7 or 6-8 HR window...snow rates maybe 1.5"/HR but it's not going to be those rates the entire time.

These events though do seem to come with a very narrow zone of hefty totals but it seems like alotmof this will be low level forcIng induced with not enough forcing or lift in the mid-levels.

I'm really trying to see though what I am overlooking here...but it seems to me everyone is going nuts just b/c of QPF output

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What's interesting is that the 0z GGEM and 12z GFS today were exactly the same in terms of timing. The main and huge difference was the handling of the shortwaves and phasing. The GFS is keying on the northern stream dominating and the GGEM wants to involve more southern stream energy. What's interesting as well is that the GGEM hasn't backed down yet. 

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Weatherwiz, I think Typhoon Tip answers your question a few posts before yours? He makes a good case for just the opposite of what you are saying...which one of you will be right???

8-12" is the standard range for a cold SWFE.......we've seen tons of them over the course of the past several seasons, so I'm not sure where he is coming from.

over 1'? I agree that isn't likely.....but 8", certainly.

 

Some of the warmer SWFEs are more like 2-5", but this clearly fits into the former.

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I just remember a few times in the past in similar setups many are beefy with totals and it doesnt verify. I'm not sure what it looks like outside of CT but bufkit soundings here show all the best omega well below the SGZ and the snow growth zone on the NAM and GFS aren't spectacular but not bad.

Outside of a narrow zone where enhanced loft helps I just think we will be looking at poor snow growth and crappy flakes for a good part. Not to mention the speed...maybe the heaviest precip is during a 5-7 or 6-8 HR window...snow rates maybe 1.5"/HR but it's not going to be those rates the entire time.

These events though do seem to come with a very narrow zone of hefty totals but it seems like alotmof this will be low level forcIng induced with not enough forcing or lift in the mid-levels.

I'm really trying to see though what I am overlooking here...but it seems to me everyone is going nuts just b/c of QPF output

Well, the lift could be more of a problem down your way, but not where I am.

Even so, 1" of QPF is going to net you 8" of snow.

We may see QPF tic down, as i agree these are often faster than modeled, but I don't see how most of the area does not verify a warning.

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