moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nothing extreme on amounts should be expected. Moisture and speed sre okay but neither giid enough for much more than ten us my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 4-7" here accounting for colder euro. Then a mess. Nice system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4-7" here accounting for colder euro. Then a mess. Nice system West side of PYM 6-10, east side 4-7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 4-7" here accounting for colder euro. Then a mess. Nice systemYa I think 4-7" is a good call for anyone within 25 miles of the coast. Once you get north of that I think 7-14" is about the maximum. Hope I'm wrong but I definitely don't see any way we don't taknt for a while on the coast. Prob a 4" front end thump, followed by some taint or maybe even a bit of plain rain along the immediate (10 miles) south coast, then a couple inches of snow on the back end. Congrats again to those who are gonna cash in (imo BDL,ORH,BOS)! Getting really sick of living right on the coast real quick lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Judging by 12z EURO output, 0.9 QPF for Boston...but look at the temps, definitely ~15:1 ratios there, so could be looking at 10-14 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At 850, there is about a 5C degree difference in temps for this area GFS vs. Euro at hour 54 (about 2 vs -3). Pre Juno I would have ignored the GFS. So much for an easy forecast. You know I mentioned this after the Euro failed in Juno...its greatest asset is its consistency. But that also means it's much slower to pick up on trends. With Juno the slight ticks east in the final 24-36 hours should've been a clue in NYC when the Euro was already on the west side of guidance. This time it's on the southern side of guidance with slight ticks north each run, leading me to believe it's still not done coming north and the GFS/GGEM will be closer to reality. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 After all the Eeyoring, MPM will pull 12"+ champagne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 West side of PYM 6-10, east side 4-7?[/quote Maybe more nw to se. I've just watched a lot of these setups either surprise torch...or in some cases cool to be too excited. It's going to be a nowcast as model consensus really isn't there. Euro should be the best in this situation, GFS is often way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro north of 0z. NYC given a kick in the nuts.aww, shucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 aww, shucks It's close but wasn't as bad as I thought looking at it mobile. But it's the southern most model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does anyone remember how ridiculously warm the GFS was for the 1/24 system. The Euro was significantly cooler (on the coolest side of the guidance) along with the GGEM. No matter how good or bad GFS did with JUNO (hate using wx channel names) GFS still has a warm bias and it is likely way too warm. The end result is likely a compromise but a 75/25 split in favor of the Euro seems more likely than the Euro caving to the GFS...in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We got some latitude so we can have an attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pretty much your standard 8-12" SWFE where someone if the get lucky may see 14" but that is pretty much the max as this one just moves right along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's close but wasn't as bad as I thought looking at it mobile. But it's the southern most model now. SWFEs are all too predictable in NYC. Hope for a few inches or so on the front end and then prepare to get pelted on and eventually rained on. Hopefully this one can at least keep the rain away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Bang the ratios all you want it's going to be tough to see widespread amounts of a foot plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Does anyone remember how ridiculously warm the GFS was for the 1/24 system. The Euro was significantly cooler (on the coolest side of the guidance) along with the GGEM. No matter how good or bad GFS did with JUNO (hate using wx channel names) GFS still has a warm bias and it is likely way too warm. The end result is likely a compromise but a 75/25 split in favor of the Euro seems more likely than the Euro caving to the GFS...in my opinion. I agree with your assessment. BOX tends to agree as well in this mornings discussion - they seem to be looking at the pattern overall in relation to the cold air staying locked in place for most of the area: "VIGOROUS H5 SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRES MOVE OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY 12Z MON. BY THEN... THOUGH...EXCELLENT OVERRUNNING IN PLACE WITH DEEP MOISTURE FEED WORKING INTO THE REGION. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...AND HIGH PRES MOVING IN TANDEM ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA... WILL NOT BE DISPLACED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT." Let's see if they change that opinion at all in the next discussion. With the GFS out of whack with everything else, I don't think so. I don't think the arctic front will budge that much after it clears the cost on Sunday. With deep snowpack and arctic air all the way to the coast while this storm is getting its act together, it's going to be tough for that warm air to mix in, even at the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hmm... I see we are right back to the mindset of pretending the UK and CMC aren't real models, and that the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You know I mentioned this after the Euro failed in Juno...its greatest asset is its consistency. But that also means it's much slower to pick up on trends. With Juno the slight ticks east in the final 24-36 hours should've been a clue in NYC when the Euro was already on the west side of guidance. This time it's on the southern side of guidance with slight ticks north each run, leading me to believe it's still not done coming north and the GFS/GGEM will be closer to reality. Sent from my iPhone The whole concept of model consistency is interesting. I expect that the models evaluate the data completely anew with each run, so they really shouldn't be consistent unless the projections from the previous run are verifying reasonably well in the intervening hours. As a consequence, consistency should be closely linked to accuracy and shouldn't prevent a model from being equally apt at picking up trends. Am I misunderstanding how this works? Consistency for it's own sake, especially at the cost of agility, seems totally worthless to me and not an asset at all. I could come up with a very consistent model on my own. It predicts 8 inches of snow every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The whole concept of model consistency is interesting. I expect that the models evaluate the data completely anew with each run, so they really shouldn't be consistent unless the projections from the previous run are verifying reasonably well in the intervening hours. As a consequence, consistency should be closely linked to accuracy and shouldn't prevent a model from being equally apt at picking up trends. Am I misunderstanding how this works? Consistency for it's own sake, especially at the cost of agility, seems totally worthless to me and not an asset at all. I could come up with a very consistent model on my own. It predicts 8 inches of snow every day. I have no idea how it actually works. But I could imagine that the model might be programmed to dampen or throw out all together any major outlier inputs in order to essentially QC the input data, even if it is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Cue the blanket jokes. Linus BLANKETS New England. Linus leaves New England curled up in their BLANKETS. So many. Linus, seriously? Good grief Charlie Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have no idea how it actually works. But I could imagine that the model might be programmed to dampen or throw out all together any major outlier inputs in order to essentially QC the input data, even if it is real. Sure, but I don't think that would artificially improve consistency, because real deviations in the initialization data vs. the projected state from the previous run would presumably be reflected across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man, the more I look at this thing ...heh, long duration despite rapid translation of features. It's because we relay one favorable mechanical setup (overrunning) right into one driven by cyclogenic processes... The whole thing is a solid 18 hours to play out... With such fantastic overrunning structures...would not be at all surprised if both uniform cirrus and lowering ceiling cuts to steady light snow prior to the models Sunday around game time.. and goes steady eddy until it gets windier/squallier and more banded associated with elevated meso features as the S/W mechanics pass over sometime on Monday/Monday evening. That GGEM solution was a quintessential snow-machine. Period. I mean, it just squeezes a deeping low and associated elevated jet fields parabolically around the BL resistance of all this nascent cold air pumping into the lower thickness intervals, out of a polar-arctic high that is moving just perfectly in tandem across E Ontario. You can't draft this stuff up any better.... Granted, there are other guidance' to rely upon, just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's close but wasn't as bad as I thought looking at it mobile. But it's the southern most model now. You were saying NOGAPS and I believe the Canadian sniffed this out early; did they do the same for the 1/26 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You were saying NOGAPS and I believe the Canadian sniffed this out early; did they do the same for the 1/26 storm? Nogaps (now navgem) sniffed the 1/26 event quickly. It used to be the progressive model but now it seems almost too amplified. Eg today's run floods alt of is with 40F at the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nogaps (now navgem) sniffed the 1/26 event quickly. It used to be the progressive model but now it seems almost too amplified. Eg today's run floods alt of is with 40F at the height. Thanks; from storm to storm tough to trend with any one given model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I must be completely missing something but I am really shocked at some of the forecasts out there. I went with 4-7'' for much of CT with the exception of 2-4'' down across the southern portion of the state. There just seems to be too many flags for my liking which I think will negate against a much more substantial event. Speed of the system, lack of a pronounced mid-level circulation, not much lift in the best snow growth zone. Maybe so many are gung ho b/c of the QPF but I just don't see anything justifying widespread 8" or even 12"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 15z Srefs bring the 1" contour up into the coastal plain of Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro has it in the single digits and snowing interior Sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 After all the Eeyoring, MPM will pull 12"+ champagne. lol. Not like 10 would be anything to sneeze at like he makes it sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GGEM translates the storm much slower than the gfs. Does the euro timing with the storm closer to the gfs or ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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