dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I feel like sometimes in these patterns though when its that cold you end up with that arctic sand. Maybe the growth is really good, but then it dries out into small flakes in the low level arctic air? I just feel like more often than not, when its snowing with ambient temps in the single digits or lower, you really need some hefty mid-level forcing to get decent ratios and not that like arctic small needle flake snow. I like the RT 2 area in Mass up into SVT and SNH for the best combo of moisture and mid level lift in that DGZ. Not necessarily in the cold overrunning setups. I mean...the crystal growth isn't going to decrease falling into cold low-level air unless it's dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You are the new Jackman. Jeffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I feel like sometimes in these patterns though when its that cold you end up with that arctic sand. Maybe the growth is really good, but then it dries out into small flakes in the low level arctic air? I just feel like more often than not, when its snowing with ambient temps in the single digits or lower, you really need some hefty mid-level forcing to get decent ratios and not that like arctic small needle flake snow. I like the RT 2 area in Mass up into SVT and SNH for the best combo of moisture and mid level lift in that DGZ. That's why we try and emphasize not to put too much stock into ratios versus surface temps. You can easily have a sounding that is in the single digits at the surface and well below the optimal DGZ aloft. Or (like this event) you can have some WAA aloft that puts the surface in the single digits and aloft in the prime DGZ. Like for Brian, at CON near 00z Tuesday the sounding in nearly completely DGZ from surface to 600 mb. With lift more or less throughout that column you could easily pull off lake effect type ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z Euro looks a tic north of 0z coming across the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro is coming a little north of 00z but not as much as I thought it might...pretty small tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 euro looks like its going to be a beast too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro north of 0z. NYC given a kick in the nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro north of 0z. NYC given a kick in the nuts. How about us up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Northward trend continues. We'll see how that continues over the NEC 24 hours. Nit much ti stop it, but I font expect any extreme movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 Infallable euro where have art though gone? I'm going 3-6" here then a mess, change back at the end. Just can't see anywhere near 10 just going to have too many sneaky warm layers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not even sure the Euro mixes the south coast...maybe near like Stamford, CT ad Greenwich...then then again out toward MVY/ACK...but it's still pretty darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well this is snow for most outside of areas SE of PYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Infallable euro where have art though gone? I'm going 3-6" here then a mess, change back at the end. Just can't see anywhere near 10 just going to have too many sneaky warm layers 8-12" here. First call. I doubt we see over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How about us up here? We got some latitude so we can have an attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro looks like it would be all snow for me, but it's also the coldest of the models right now it seems. I thought I could just sit back and relax and watch it snow...so much for that. 925s make it to south shore of LI and the islands 850s make it to extreme coastal CT and RI and extreme SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GGEM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Qpf less on the Euro as well. keeps those one-inch totals confined to New York City Long Island and southeast New England lots of 0.6-0.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We dont toss the euro. Thats a nice hit here, taint free as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro seems like a 8-12 deal for much of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At 850, there is about a 5C degree difference in temps for this area GFS vs. Euro at hour 54 (about 2 vs -3). Pre Juno I would have ignored the GFS. So much for an easy forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro seems like a 8-12 deal for much of the interior. That's usually how these go. I'd be hesitant to go more. We'd need a more robust CCB parting gift to get more widespread 12"+ amounts. If that is going to happen, then we will see more signs of it in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs just seems lost based on everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's usually how these go. I'd be hesitant to go more. We'd need a more robust CCB parting gift to get more widespread 12"+ amounts. If that is going to happen, then we will see more signs of it in the next 24 hours. 6-12/8-14. Even the 14 may be above the ceiling but someone with fluff could pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs just seems lost based on everything else Gfs/uk/cmc vs nam/euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gfs/uk/cmc vs nam/euro. thanks for clarifying Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Cmc is in the gfs camp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think there was a period of official advisory in the matter ...if perhaps buried out of notice by the specter of the current headline... It was single digits out here in Ayer just before dawn, and the house was rattling then too, so it probably verified with pretty deep values.Wind tunnel downtown was unbearable at 2am. I actually got so cold I ended up jogging the 5 blocks to the car in dress shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'd say GGEM is a compromise...it's definitely colder than the GFS/Ukie but a bit warmer than Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wouldn't shock me at a GFS/Euro split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Cmc is in the gfs camp? In terms of track yes. Not quite as warm but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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