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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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This shows some signs of SWFE type nuances. Not necessarily the taint issue, but screaming SW winds at 700 may make this more of a potent front ender. A few things make it different though. I think we'll see lighter snows after a weak 700 dryslot moves through thanks to 850 winds out of the NE and arctic air. Despite QPF, tough to really go higher than 10-12 unless those previous things I mentioned really help add up the fluff. Someone near BOS will benefit from the CF by a few inches too.

 

You can see that opening wave at 700 mb. Doesn't really close back up until it's basically over Eastport, so maybe Down East could see a good late burst out of it.

 

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Tip...  Respectfully noting......it's not surprising to see quasi-stationary longwave patterns where you get several bonafide systems in short order, in similar locales.  Unless you can make an argument that climate change causes longer term stagnation of longwave patterns to produce such back to back (to back) potentials, then I don't see climate change as being the default answer (or main driver) of such.

 

Totally off-topic to this thread specifically, but I've always wondered what was up with that.  There are patterns that once in, specific locations just get dumped on for X-amount of time.  Its like the "it snows where it wants to snow" type thing where every system starts breaking favorably for a given spot time and time again until some big pattern shift occurs.

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Man, speaking of wind....my house is currently rattling about as much as did at any point during the blizzard.

Jesus...windchill much?

 

I think there was a period of official advisory in the matter ...if perhaps buried out of notice by the specter of the current headline...  It was single digits out here in Ayer just before dawn, and the house was rattling then too, so it probably verified with pretty deep values. 

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I feel like BUFKIT spits out 18 to 1 in every storm...I've noticed it has a real inflation bias. :lol:

 

 

That said, in this setup, I could definitely see that happening on that northern periphery where a good band probably sets up.

 

SREF spitting out pretty high probabilities for a deep DGZ. I've noticed the Bufkit soundings up this way are basically DGZ from just off the deck through 600 mb. You can really maximize your QPF when the sounding is that cold.

post-44-0-76202900-1422725050_thumb.gif

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Totally off-topic to this thread specifically, but I've always wondered what was up with that.  There are patterns that once in, specific locations just get dumped on for X-amount of time.  Its like the "it snows where it wants to snow" type thing where every system starts breaking favorably for a given spot time and time again until some big pattern shift occurs.

Seasonal deformation zone.

Me thinks one is setting up over sne.

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Seasonal deformation zone.

Me thinks one is setting up over sne.

 

I don't think its seasonal per se...I mean it was up here for Nov/Dec/Jan.  We kept being just far enough NW not to rain. BTV had like 40+ inches through mid-December and we were posting about how it would be funny if they hit climo by Christmas.  Of course that slowed down, haha.

 

I think for the second half of the winter you may be right.  But this pattern is quickly letting folks forget the struggles of the first half of the winter.  Sort of like what happened last year...SNE was doing well up into February when then it just stopped and switched up here for 6-8 weeks.

 

These things do tend to run in like 4-8 week cycles.  But yeah you get the truly historic winters when you get that sweet spot for like 12 straight weeks.

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I don't think its seasonal per se...I mean it was up here for Nov/Dec/Jan.  We kept being just far enough NW not to rain. BTV had like 40+ inches through mid-December and we were posting about how it would be funny if they hit climo by Christmas.  Of course that slowed down, haha.

 

I think for the second half of the winter you may be right.  But this pattern is quickly letting folks forget the struggles of the first half of the winter.  Sort of like what happened last year...SNE was doing well up into February when then it just stopped and switched up here for 6-8 weeks.

 

These things do tend to run in like 4-8 week cycles.  But yeah you get the truly historic winters when you get that sweet spot for like 12 straight weeks.

Will and I mentioned at one point, there is a reason why sne has it's climo peak for snow in early FEB.

The baroclinic zone shifts south throughout the season....then begins to lift again later in Feb.

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SREF spitting out pretty high probabilities for a deep DGZ. I've noticed the Bufkit soundings up this way are basically DGZ from just off the deck through 600 mb. You can really maximize your QPF when the sounding is that cold.

attachicon.gifSREF_prob_dend_100__f051.gif

 

I feel like sometimes in these patterns though when its that cold you end up with that arctic sand.  Maybe the growth is really good, but then it dries out into small flakes in the low level arctic air?  I just feel like more often than not, when its snowing with ambient temps in the single digits or lower, you really need some hefty mid-level forcing to get decent ratios and not that like arctic small needle flake snow. 

 

I like the RT 2 area in Mass up into SVT and SNH for the best combo of moisture and mid level lift in that DGZ.

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Will and I mentioned at one point, there is a reason why sne has it's climo peak for snow in early FEB.

The baroclinic zone shifts south throughout the season....then begins to lift again later in Feb.

 

Yup.  Great point.  If there's a climo time of year for us to be whiffing south, its right now.  Our best snows usually come on the bookends of the season as the zone shifts south in the late fall early winter, then again in March when it comes back north.

 

You guys are in for quite a run I think this month.  Could be some impressive totals from like Jan 20th through Feb 20th...rivaling Jan 2011 type monthly totals in spots? 

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Messenger...what's your call for extreme SE areas?  I've been burned way, way too many times in this set-up and I've grown accustomed to expecting the worst.  It rarely disappoints.  Hoping to be pleasantly surprised but I'm expecting 3-5 and turning over to r+ and a sloppy 34 degrees followed by a very high impact flash-freeze.

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I supplied my own reason a little while ago ... why I thought the GGEM wasn't impossible.  NCEP sites their own reasons, having to do with trend analysis alone...  But they arrive at the same conclusion:

 

"...THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE 00Z GEM IS THE MOST SUPPRESSED...FOLLOWED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THEREAFTER...THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES THE MOST SUPPRESSED SOLUTION AS THE OTHER MODELS TUCK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN A LITTLE CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH TRACKS THAT ARE NEAR OR EVEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE BENCHMARK. BY MON...THE 12Z NAM BECOMES THE FASTESTSOLUTION...WITH THE UKMET THE SLOWEST. THE MULTI-DAY TREND TRENDIN THE GUIDANCE GOING BACK TO YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO FAVOR A
STRONGER AND WARMER SOLUTION FROM THE MID MS VALLEY EAST ACROSSTHE OH VALLEY AND ALSO NOW SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THELINGERING SPREAD AND ENSEMBLE LOW SCATTER PLOTS...WE FEEL THAT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WILL WORK THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A 12Z GFS/12Z GEM BLEND THEREAFTER AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND..."

 

Also, noticing a powerful jet streak in the WV imagery cutting SE through western Montana over the last three hours, ... outpacing the surrounding motion of the synoptic features by nearly two-fold.  That's  a lot of velocities, passing over a region that probably doesn't have the densest sampling; it'll be interesting what happens ..if anything all, to modulate future runs should any "missing" speed maxes get consumed by future initialization...

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Alb has been slowly getting back in the game with this one. I'm hoping we're in a good place with a balance decent QPF and cold. Lots of models outing out 1" QPF here. If we can maximize ratios this could be a memorable storm here. We're at 40" here for the year and 27.7" since 12/1. I guess success is relative.

I feel like sometimes in these patterns though when its that cold you end up with that arctic sand. Maybe the growth is really good, but then it dries out into small flakes in the low level arctic air? I just feel like more often than not, when its snowing with ambient temps in the single digits or lower, you really need some hefty mid-level forcing to get decent ratios and not that like arctic small needle flake snow.

I like the RT 2 area in Mass up into SVT and SNH for the best combo of moisture and mid level lift in that DGZ.

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Yup.  Great point.  If there's a climo time of year for us to be whiffing south, its right now.  Our best snows usually come on the bookends of the season as the zone shifts south in the late fall early winter, then again in March when it comes back north.

 

You guys are in for quite a run I think this month.  Could be some impressive totals from like Jan 20th through Feb 20th...rivaling Jan 2011 type monthly totals in spots

I explicitly mentioned that season in my outlook in order to draw a parralel as to how I felt the month of January would evolve.

Two main issues thus far:

1) I have rushed the evolution

2) I've whiffed with regard to the polar fields....sort of right for the  wrong reason...

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I feel like sometimes in these patterns though when its that cold you end up with that arctic sand.  Maybe the growth is really good, but then it dries out into small flakes in the low level arctic air?  I just feel like more often than not, when its snowing with ambient temps in the single digits or lower, you really need some hefty mid-level forcing to get decent ratios and not that like arctic small needle flake snow. 

 

I like the RT 2 John's house area in Mass up into SVT and SNH for the best combo of moisture and mid level lift in that DGZ.

 

Yup...

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