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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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LOL - best AFD ever?

 

AND HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH A STORM. GOING DOWN ALL THE GUIDANCE EVER
KNOWN. LIKE A DRIFTER I AM LOST ABOUT THIS STORM. SO I`VE MADE UP MY
MIND. I`M ENSEMBLE BLENDING THIS TIME. SO HERE WE GO AGAIN.

WITH THIS FORECAST AM NOT GOING TO INVEST IN ONE INDIVIDUAL STOCK OF
FORECAST GUIDANCE. WILL DIVERSIFY WITH A PORTFOLIO BLEND OF ENSEMBLE
WEIGHTED GUIDANCE...EVALUATING RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WHICH ARE
OUTLINED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.

NEUTRAL-TILT OPEN-WAVE TROUGH ABOVE H85 SWEEPS ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSING TOWARDS A NEGATIVE-TILT LATE
IN THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW EMERGES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
MORNING SWEEP S OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIES
IN RESPONSE TO THE ISALLOBARIC WIND ENHANCING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
OUR PROXIMITY AND THE TROUGH ALOFT UNDERGOING NEGATIVE-TILT.

FOCUS IS WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT
/WCB/ WHERE A BAROCLINIC-LEAF SETUP IS ANTICIPATED WITH BROADSCALE
ISENTROPIC/DEEP-LAYER FORCING BENEATH RRQ/LFQ JET COUPLING OF UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAKS. CONVERGENCE OF THE WCB ALONG N-S SLANTWISE ASCENT
AGAINST TIGHTENING ISOTHERMAL PACKING /SUBSEQUENT OF THE ENHANCEMENT
OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/ WILL LIKELY YIELD E-W MESOSCALE BANDING OUT
AHEAD OF THE STORM AND NOTABLY WITHIN THE NE-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOW
IN REGIONS OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. NEIGHBORING -EPV /POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY/ THERE IS THE INDICATION AS SUGGESTED BY SREF MEANS OF
SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR.

YET UNCERTAINTY...

BUT WHERE EXACTLY ALL THESE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AND WHERE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF FORCING LIES REMAINS SUSPECT. ASSOCIATED ENERGY
IS JUST COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO THE S-STREAM ENERGY THAT IS CAPTURED FROM THE LOW
CENTER OVER THE SW CONUS / MEXICO. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY GIVEN BY THE
LATITUDINAL / ENHANCEMENT SPREAD OF FORECAST GUIDANCE UPSTREAM OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE THE RUN-UP TO THE RECENT BLIZZARD
MODELS VARY IN PLACEMENT OF BEST E-W BANDING AND THERMAL PROFILES.
SUBTLE SHIFTS EVEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 MILES WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND PRECIP-TYPES. EVALUATING SPC SREF
PLUMES SHOW GRAPHICALLY JUST THAT EXTENT OF SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES.

ITS INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO NAIL THE SPECIFICS DOWN AT THIS TIME BUT
FEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEIGHTING TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH.
WISH TO BETTER INFORM/ALERT BOTH THE PUBLIC AND STATE / LOCAL GOVTS.
FEEL MESSAGING THE THREAT PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND AND THE FACT THAT
THERE IS A TON OF SNOW ON THE GROUND GIVES EVERYONE TIME TO PREPARE
AND TO ACT ACCORDINGLY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

NO TWO STORMS ARE ALIKE JUST LIKE NO TWO SNOWFLAKES ARE ALIKE. YET
WE CAN DRAW COMPARISONS FROM ANALOGS. NOTING CIPS-ANALOGS...FROM THE
60-HR NAM-FORECAST AND 72-HR GFS-FORECAST...BOTH KEY UPON A SWATH OF
E-W SNOW ACROSS THE NE-CONUS WITH AT LEAST 60% OF ANALOGS AGREEING
UPON STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALLS IN EXCESS OF 8-INCHES...AND YES NOTING
THAT THE MEAN-MEDIAN E-W SNOWFALL IS N OF THE MASS-PIKE. WHAT IS
IMPORTANT TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT IT IS THERE AND THE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST SEEING SNOWFALLS IN EXCESS OF WATCH-WARNING CRITERIA. OTHER-
WISE ALONG THE S-FRINGE OF THE BANDING IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING
MIXING WITH A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. PERHAPS SOME STRONG GUSTS
ACROSS THE CAPE / ISLANDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH...OTHERWISE MAJORITY
OF ANALOGS SIGNAL NO ISSUE WITH WINDS.

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Never responsed to the post from the other day when you said it seems like models have come a long way in the past ten years.. it seems like globals are all so far behind euro.. even if it did lay an egg for nyc for the blizz. Gfs was brutal in the days leading up. Wasn't much to work with

 

They are definitely better than a decade ago...if you had been forecasting back then you'd notice the difference.

 

The model scores are solidly higher if you go back in the verification archives.

 

 

The SREFs are one set of guidance that used to be decent in winter events, but seemed to have regressed, but they perform better elswhere.

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