CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM in terms of thermal a hair colder at 850 compared to 12z. Low track similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z Nam is working on that as we speak Looks virtually the same as the 12z run. Maybe just more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks virtually the same as the 12z run. Maybe just more QPF. Pretty much, maybe a bit stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pretty much, maybe a bit stronger too. We do not toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pretty much, maybe a bit stronger too. About 2mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This system just slams into a brick wall and has to develop the SLP East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Dumps over 0.50" up here, Geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Weenie out on this image for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Weenie out on this image for a bit. f66.gif thermal packing ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Than this one. Just looked at that thermal gradient. Baroclinic Zone in da house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 should be some nice drifts even without alot of wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOL - best AFD ever? AND HERE WE GO AGAIN WITH A STORM. GOING DOWN ALL THE GUIDANCE EVERKNOWN. LIKE A DRIFTER I AM LOST ABOUT THIS STORM. SO I`VE MADE UP MYMIND. I`M ENSEMBLE BLENDING THIS TIME. SO HERE WE GO AGAIN.WITH THIS FORECAST AM NOT GOING TO INVEST IN ONE INDIVIDUAL STOCK OFFORECAST GUIDANCE. WILL DIVERSIFY WITH A PORTFOLIO BLEND OF ENSEMBLEWEIGHTED GUIDANCE...EVALUATING RISKS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WHICH AREOUTLINED IN THE DISCUSSION BELOW.NEUTRAL-TILT OPEN-WAVE TROUGH ABOVE H85 SWEEPS ACROSS S NEW ENGLANDSUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSING TOWARDS A NEGATIVE-TILT LATEIN THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW EMERGES FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAYMORNING SWEEP S OF NEW ENGLAND MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS IT INTENSIFIESIN RESPONSE TO THE ISALLOBARIC WIND ENHANCING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INOUR PROXIMITY AND THE TROUGH ALOFT UNDERGOING NEGATIVE-TILT.FOCUS IS WITHIN THE ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM-CONVEYER-BELT/WCB/ WHERE A BAROCLINIC-LEAF SETUP IS ANTICIPATED WITH BROADSCALEISENTROPIC/DEEP-LAYER FORCING BENEATH RRQ/LFQ JET COUPLING OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS. CONVERGENCE OF THE WCB ALONG N-S SLANTWISE ASCENTAGAINST TIGHTENING ISOTHERMAL PACKING /SUBSEQUENT OF THE ENHANCEMENTOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/ WILL LIKELY YIELD E-W MESOSCALE BANDING OUTAHEAD OF THE STORM AND NOTABLY WITHIN THE NE-QUADRANT OF THE H85 LOWIN REGIONS OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. NEIGHBORING -EPV /POTENTIALINSTABILITY/ THERE IS THE INDICATION AS SUGGESTED BY SREF MEANS OFSNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR.YET UNCERTAINTY...BUT WHERE EXACTLY ALL THESE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER AND WHERE THEGREATEST AMOUNT OF FORCING LIES REMAINS SUSPECT. ASSOCIATED ENERGYIS JUST COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CANADA AND THERE IS SOMEQUESTION AS TO THE S-STREAM ENERGY THAT IS CAPTURED FROM THE LOWCENTER OVER THE SW CONUS / MEXICO. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY GIVEN BY THELATITUDINAL / ENHANCEMENT SPREAD OF FORECAST GUIDANCE UPSTREAM OVERTHE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. JUST LIKE THE RUN-UP TO THE RECENT BLIZZARDMODELS VARY IN PLACEMENT OF BEST E-W BANDING AND THERMAL PROFILES.SUBTLE SHIFTS EVEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 MILES WILL RESULT INSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND PRECIP-TYPES. EVALUATING SPC SREFPLUMES SHOW GRAPHICALLY JUST THAT EXTENT OF SPREAD OF POSSIBILITIES.ITS INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO NAIL THE SPECIFICS DOWN AT THIS TIME BUTFEEL THAT THERE IS ENOUGH WEIGHTING TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH.WISH TO BETTER INFORM/ALERT BOTH THE PUBLIC AND STATE / LOCAL GOVTS.FEEL MESSAGING THE THREAT PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND AND THE FACT THATTHERE IS A TON OF SNOW ON THE GROUND GIVES EVERYONE TIME TO PREPAREAND TO ACT ACCORDINGLY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.NO TWO STORMS ARE ALIKE JUST LIKE NO TWO SNOWFLAKES ARE ALIKE. YETWE CAN DRAW COMPARISONS FROM ANALOGS. NOTING CIPS-ANALOGS...FROM THE60-HR NAM-FORECAST AND 72-HR GFS-FORECAST...BOTH KEY UPON A SWATH OFE-W SNOW ACROSS THE NE-CONUS WITH AT LEAST 60% OF ANALOGS AGREEINGUPON STORM-TOTAL SNOWFALLS IN EXCESS OF 8-INCHES...AND YES NOTINGTHAT THE MEAN-MEDIAN E-W SNOWFALL IS N OF THE MASS-PIKE. WHAT ISIMPORTANT TO TAKE AWAY IS THAT IT IS THERE AND THE PROBABILITIESSUGGEST SEEING SNOWFALLS IN EXCESS OF WATCH-WARNING CRITERIA. OTHER-WISE ALONG THE S-FRINGE OF THE BANDING IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEINGMIXING WITH A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. PERHAPS SOME STRONG GUSTSACROSS THE CAPE / ISLANDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH...OTHERWISE MAJORITYOF ANALOGS SIGNAL NO ISSUE WITH WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 wow thats early for a watch but i see there point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Move that 3" stripe further south. GC doesn't get 6" storms anymore. The snow desert of MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah I figured they would wait until tomorrow...but 50% confidence in >6" is probably already attainable. The guidance is in pretty strong agreement for good snowfall despite disagreeing on the smaller specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That AFD is mint I brake for bagginess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 White snake gets into an AFD. David Coverdale just joined the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Dumps over 0.50" up here, GeezusLooks like some nice mid-level banding for us this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 SREF's are on par with using the JMA nowadays No they aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 No they aren't Yeah they are worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah they are worse. Yup that's what I meant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 White snake gets into an AFD. David Coverdale just joined the boardTonya Kitane draped over Bizz's snowbanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 box going likely 12 max 1 got to love those new snow probabilities lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Tonya Kitane draped over Bizz's snowbanks Photoshop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah they are worse.Never responsed to the post from the other day when you said it seems like models have come a long way in the past ten years.. it seems like globals are all so far behind euro.. even if it did lay an egg for nyc for the blizz. Gfs was brutal in the days leading up. Wasn't much to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Never responsed to the post from the other day when you said it seems like models have come a long way in the past ten years.. it seems like globals are all so far behind euro.. even if it did lay an egg for nyc for the blizz. Gfs was brutal in the days leading up. Wasn't much to work with They are definitely better than a decade ago...if you had been forecasting back then you'd notice the difference. The model scores are solidly higher if you go back in the verification archives. The SREFs are one set of guidance that used to be decent in winter events, but seemed to have regressed, but they perform better elswhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'll tell ya though, all models right now aren't all that dissimilar. Not bad for a day 3 prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yeah I remember how bad the AVN and ETA used to be, and to a greater extent the NGM, I don't know why anyone would use that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 man, I thought that storm was a guaranteed miss? anyone have some thoughts about further north trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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