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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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The 00z GGEM offers enough gradient too, for nearing blizzard conditions believe it or not..

 

Prolly not ... just sayin'. 

 

I was musing this last night.  It's a coincidence that [maybe] falsely atones to how times have changed; the climate we swim around in year to year is different now than we remember growing up.  

 

"When I was a kid...,"  my old grand-pappy used to start off ... followed by the cliche vamp about up hill barefoot in three feet of snow, both ways.  This is different than that, and I'm not grandpa.  

 

There were great storms as I recall in my youth.  I lived in two places during the less than 30-years of age times: Michigan and Massachusetts.  Both locations have experienced record-breaking Meteorological events, both subtle and gross.  When I was just 11-years of age, I witnessed an (at that time) F3 tornado bore a path of blithe destruction right down the business thoroughfare of Kalamazoo. Two years prior the Great Lakes was visited by the great Cleveland Superbomb of Jan 1978, which set the inland North American, low barometric pressure of an eye-popping 951mb!

 

I moved to Massachusetts in an utter culture shock, going from cow schit and corn stalks to gray walls of cold abyssal North Atlantic curling into thunderous applause upon the shores of Rockport Mass.  

 

Rockport .. There are always exceptions to any rule, but in general it's an arty town-community of high brows and old money, picturesquely jetting out into the Atlantic at the tip of Cape Ann. Interestingly juxtaposed just next door by the more provincial fishing culture of Gloucester's clam chowder, Crow Nest taverns, and the smell of pogey refinery type factories. One must traverse the proletariat to tour the privileged. The place is a dry town in self importance, with a cultural underground of hipsters and liberals ... usually the type that engage in that life-style by virtue their trust funds.  

 

Where I had come from, Kalamazoo, there were liberals, too. But there was also racial tension, drugs, ...the typical on-going tension between the decay of unionized America and preventing urban blithe. My parents decided that it was easier to guide these children in communities with better prospects so we made the move.  

 

In the Midwest the weather passion was all about convection.  Boy did I love crispy cauliflower TCU on the distant horizons, and dreamt of the storms they must have been producing. To this day, even in Massachusetts, if the smell of the Michigan lea mixes with summer humidity, I think of a distant thundercloud's array.  

 

There are similarities in the weather between Michigan and Massachusetts... Obviously being temperate climate zones, we experience the four seasons. But indigenous to their respective geographical locations, do to the position relative to hemispheric scaled features, they have comparatively modulated versions.  But one thing that was always common between the two was the 'storm than wait' rule of thumb.  You waited lengthier times through weather ennui; you transpired through excitable eras, ..perhaps cashing in a big event; then, you resumed the next era in wait of the next era.  

 

I don't know if this is a sign of the changing climate?   But, witnessing a solid regional-scoped 15"-30" historic event, followed not barely four days later by what is really appearing to be a 15" albeit short duration, but higher impact event from a synoptic scaled system was always next to impossible.

 

Yet here we are.   I can think of many great storms over the last several decades, and the vast majority of them required putting in the time before the next celebration.  It seems that management has run out on the hotel... 

Tip...  Respectfully noting......it's not surprising to see quasi-stationary longwave patterns where you get several bonafide systems in short order, in similar locales.  Unless you can make an argument that climate change causes longer term stagnation of longwave patterns to produce such back to back (to back) potentials, then I don't see climate change as being the default answer (or main driver) of such.

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Would love to see that again!!!!

 

I'm envisioning more of a Feb. 2001 for out here--perhaps a bit further north.

 

Id say Kevin's longitude on north looks fine 8-12"

 

Do you mean latitude?

 

close to blizzard conditions again  :lmao:   i think this storm will take alot of the general public off guard

 

:weenie:

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Tip...  Respectfully noting......it's not surprising to see quasi-stationary longwave patterns where you get several bonafide systems in short order, in similar locales.  Unless you can make an argument that climate change causes longer term stagnation of longwave patterns to produce such back to back (to back) potentials, then I don't see climate change as being the default answer (or main driver) of such.

 

Oh, absolutely agreed -- the piece was a muse, as I said...  

 

But I am also talking about return rates off upper tier systems. You are of course right that you can just be in favorable patterns; in 1995-1996, there was the megalopolis storm, and it too was couched inside of a string of pearls (so to speak). 

 

But nothing happened after 1978. Not much happened after 1992 until the super storm of March '93.  There are more examples of upper tier system fading into extended periods of non-events, than 20-30" events relaying right into a 15 'er.  And "weather" any of that is related to climate change -- no comment. It was almost tongue in cheek.

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Pretty much consistent warning guidance from everything available, I doubt euro changes that thinking in an hour. Ukmet trended further east with the 850 low so the biggest north outlier settled a bit to the other guidance. Narrow period of possible taint pike southward but it's not a big issue off the cape and islands and down near NYC IMHO.

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Snow algorithms may overdo the ratios in these setups. A lot of them use max temp in the column. They're setup to work OK with something like Juno with a more moist adiabatic profile, but with an overrunning inversion...not as much. Obviously not all of them work that way (some are more exotic with their equations), but I've seen plenty like that.

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dude I had to pull the new pups out of the snow multiple times, they keep getting stuck.

0131151141.jpg

 

The Ginxy theme song.

 

"there's a curve out on the old town line that always drifts in exactly the same; I can take it out with just one sweep, my plow turned a particular way.  But it never stops snowing in Cumberland county......"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aEhX0QrVKKE

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