J Paul Gordon Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In areas with changeover, are we talking about a brief period of time (coastal regions). Interested in the meteorology here. Not just IMBY. ' Does the placement of the arctic air keep changeovers brief in terms of the length of the storm. And is the steepness of the dome of air what makes for intense accumulations where it stays all snow--especially near transition areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM and RGEM would be very close...and I'm not convinced we don't see one more tick north...you know how these SWFEs can work. Ggrm should be warmer than 0z based on 12z rgem too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looking at uncle 36 hours 850 plot vs 48 hours 0z look similar in temps but 850 low may be a bit further south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Is the brick wall crumbling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As the NAM shifts south..so does that The NAM only holds weight when it fits your agenda. Its the nam. I think that's enough said . Euro is all snow for you. Enjoy it instead of worrying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Looking at uncle 36 hours 850 plot vs 48 hours 0z look similar in temps but 850 low may be a bit further south this run. Where abouts is it for those of us who don't have access to all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well you're not jackpotting..so let's not get crazy. What does sleet somewhere in New England have to do with a jackpot? Silly comments and convoluted logic aside, the EURO snowfall map that you posted actually does in fact jackpot me. 8-12"...I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm actually concerned that the QPF is for real here.. I'm looking at these observation elements earlier on in this ordeal, which begin really now through the next 12 hours ... and the 'zygot' phase of this systems feature is one of a Colorado Low... These lee-side Rockies spin ups (the same one's that really nail twister alley in the spring...) typical do have a quasi- if not outright Gulf of Mexico PWAT tap. The GFS oper. run from 12z and so forth ... demonstrates this at 12 hours. And as we are all aware (both measured and sensibly) these same charts represent an antecedent fresh arctic-polar air mass engulfing the Lakes to New England region. This system's governing dynamics are potent, too. They ride along just about collocated with the best thermodynamic gradient between PWAT air mass and what Ryan was just talking about , very steep elevated frontal slope. That is so because the thermal packing/gradient between this fresh cold sourced air and that foisted N by that potent (nearing or exceeding 40 unit v-max; which argues initializing efficient boundary-pause to mid level restoring jets) is very steep. The restoring jets in the cyclogen model will be tipped very upright, and saturable air is forced to vigorously lift in UVV channels/wedge. I was just looking at the 300mb and there is a small but strong jet max lurking just of Cape Code at 48 hours, where the left entrance region resides over top the right front quadrant of the 500mb wind max. That could be why the sfc depiction is as deep as it is, and probably also argues for someone getting exotic fall rates somewhere between White Plains, NY to HFD, to ORH - BOS type axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Where abouts is it for those of us who don't have access to all the models. I'm not looking at the pay site. I looked at 36 hours 850 ht and temps on plymouth: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html I compared it to last nights run on meteocentre: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GGEM is quite the snowstorm for the pike region BOS to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS does seem to thump pretty good before any changeover. Still would be a solid 6" in coastal zones before taint taken verbatim. Maybe not a true SWFE, but wondering if GFS would trend to having most of the precip in and tapering off before mid levels torch like we see in many traditional SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol canadian. It's just a coastal not going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not too skeptical...I think an inch of liquid (or close to it anyway) is quite possible...mostly in an 8 hour period. This is some massive sloped profiles we see with the arctic dome.Yes, 1" or thereabouts, not the ~1.5" it's spitting out in SE MA. We've also talked about how the GFS tends to run a bit warm. Again, I'm skeptical of its solution after the large shift it made from 06z. Maybe it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 And I would argue (duh) that with such antecedent cold magnitude, and given to sufficient higher pressure N as this passes underneath that there is no way even the higher res models will be right about warm penetrating the lowest levels. If the models insist on bring warm in, it's off the deck and you wind up with a band of poorly modeled icing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS does seem to thump pretty good before any changeover. Still would be a solid 6" in coastal zones before taint taken verbatim. Maybe not a true SWFE, but wondering if GFS would trend to having most of the precip in and tapering off before mid levels torch like we see in many traditional SWFEs. I honestly do not feel of the angst born of sleet concerns is justified. It's really not going to make a big difference whether someone ends as sleet or doesn't....snowfall totals should be pretty uniform throughout the area. There would have to be a great deal of sleet to really limit accumulations, and I'm not sure anyone in SNE sees that. At least not beyond the immediate s coast, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm not looking at the pay site. I looked at 36 hours 850 ht and temps on plymouth: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html I compared it to last nights run on meteocentre: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en Thank you for the sites. It'll be one more reason my wife gets mad at me whenever a snowstorm is imminent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I said ride Euro After blasting it for a couple days for beng useless after Juno. You are getting your spin mixed up. Gotta keep it consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What does sleet somewhere in New England have to do with a jackpot? Silly comments and convoluted logic aside, the EURO snowfall map that you posted actually does in fact jackpot me. 8-12"...I'm good. He must not have went for his morning run to clear his mind.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I honestly do not feel of the angst born of sleet concerns is justified. It's really not going to make a big difference whether someone ends as sleet or doesn't....snowfall totals should be pretty uniform throughout the area. There would have to be a great deal of sleet to really limit accumulations, and I'm not sure anyone in SNE sees that. At least not beyond the immediate s coast, anyway. I tend to agree inland. Depth of low level cold should allow for more snow than anything else. But southern 1/2 of CT into SE MA I could see it limiting accumulations if this warm push on the GFS is real. But as Tip mentioned, I think plain rain shouldn't be a big concern beyond the LI, the Cape, and perhaps the immediate shore of SE CT and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol...GGEM is a front end dump followed by a hefty CCB...that would be how you get 15-18" out of this. I don't really buy it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 and GFS does not buy into the south trend I do not see why anyone is talking about a south trend. This has been steadily trending north for the last couple of days. I would daresay I don't see why it can't continue to tick in that direction. 60" on the ground up here in 10 days? That is awesome. I'm hoping I can report 18" in the same time period. lol GFS does seem to thump pretty good before any changeover. Still would be a solid 6" in coastal zones before taint taken verbatim. Maybe not a true SWFE, but wondering if GFS would trend to having most of the precip in and tapering off before mid levels torch like we see in many traditional SWFEs. I can see this being a very realistic outcome. In the meantime, I like the look of the GFS for mby. That little bonus at the end could actually put it in the MECS category up this way. But I speak way too soon. 12.9/-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm actually concerned that the QPF is for real here.. The question has to be asked... why is that concerning? We get concerned when it goes the other direction and the QPF is not for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol...GGEM is a front end dump followed by a hefty CCB...that would be how you get 15-18" out of this. I don't really buy it though. Well, the euro did have a weenie 14-15" stripe just north of Boston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The question has to be asked... why is that concerning? We get concerned when it goes the other direction and the QPF is not for real. He might be speaking from a snow removal management perspective...if places that got 30"+ of snow 3-4 days ago end up with 12-14" of dense 1-1.25" QPF baking powder, I'm not sure how that is going to be coped with. That's going to be really tough considering there hasn't really been a lot of time to move or "tighten up" the snow piles from the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The question has to be asked... why is that concerning? We get concerned when it goes the other direction and the QPF is not for real. in the context of considerable' ... not ''OMG it's not happening' ... don't read in too deeply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The question has to be asked... why is that concerning? We get concerned when it goes the other direction and the QPF is not for real. Because when you "aren't emotionally invested in snow", one assumes that perspective of a normal being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 spot 20 lol what are the chances we see thunder snow out of this Lol...GGEM is a front end dump followed by a hefty CCB...that would be how you get 15-18" out of this. I don't really buy it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For reasons I have been annotating and discussing, I don't think the GGEM is impossible at all actually - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 For reasons I have been annotating and discussing, I don't think the GGEM is impossible at all actually - The GEM is 12/9/05. There, I've said it....I've been bad....veeery bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The GEM is 12/9/05. There, I've said it....I've been bad....veeery bad... Would love to see that again!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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