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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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In areas with changeover, are we talking about a brief period of time (coastal regions). Interested in the meteorology here. Not just IMBY. '

Does the placement of the arctic air keep changeovers brief in terms of the length of the storm. And is the steepness of the dome of air what makes for intense accumulations where it stays all snow--especially near transition areas?

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I'm actually concerned that the QPF is for real here..  I'm looking at these observation elements earlier on in this ordeal, which begin really now through the next 12 hours ... and the 'zygot' phase of this systems feature is one of a Colorado Low...  These lee-side Rockies spin ups (the same one's that really nail twister alley in the spring...) typical do have a quasi- if not outright Gulf of Mexico PWAT tap. The GFS oper. run from 12z and so forth ... demonstrates this at 12 hours. 

 

post-904-0-97404500-1422721445_thumb.jpg

 

And as we are all aware (both measured and sensibly) these same charts represent an antecedent fresh arctic-polar air mass engulfing the Lakes to New England region.  

 

This system's governing dynamics are potent, too. They ride along just about collocated with the best thermodynamic gradient between PWAT air mass and what Ryan was just talking about , very steep elevated frontal slope.  That is so because the thermal packing/gradient between this fresh cold sourced air and that foisted N by that potent (nearing or exceeding 40 unit v-max; which argues initializing efficient boundary-pause to mid level restoring jets) is very steep.  The restoring jets in the cyclogen model will be tipped very upright, and saturable air is forced to vigorously lift in UVV channels/wedge.   I was just looking at the 300mb and there is a small but strong jet max lurking just of Cape Code at 48 hours, where the left entrance region resides over top the right front quadrant of the 500mb wind max.  That could be why the sfc depiction is as deep as it is, and probably also argues for someone getting exotic fall rates somewhere between White  Plains, NY to HFD, to ORH - BOS type axis.  

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I'm not too skeptical...I think an inch of liquid (or close to it anyway) is quite possible...mostly in an 8 hour period. This is some massive sloped profiles we see with the arctic dome.

Yes, 1" or thereabouts, not the ~1.5" it's spitting out in SE MA. We've also talked about how the GFS tends to run a bit warm. Again, I'm skeptical of its solution after the large shift it made from 06z. Maybe it's right.
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And I would argue (duh) that with such antecedent cold magnitude, and given to sufficient higher pressure N as this passes underneath that there is no way even the higher res models will be right about warm penetrating the lowest levels.  If the models insist on bring warm in, it's off the deck and you wind up with a band of poorly modeled icing...

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GFS does seem to thump pretty good before any changeover. Still would be a solid 6" in coastal zones before taint taken verbatim. Maybe not a true SWFE, but wondering if GFS would trend to having most of the precip in and tapering off before mid levels torch like we see in many traditional SWFEs.

I honestly do not feel of the angst born of sleet concerns is justified. 

It's really not going to make a big difference whether someone ends as sleet or doesn't....snowfall totals should be pretty uniform throughout the area.

There would have to be a great deal of sleet to really limit accumulations, and I'm not sure anyone in SNE sees that.

At least not beyond the immediate s coast, anyway.

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I'm not looking at the pay site. I looked at 36 hours 850 ht and temps on plymouth: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html

I compared it to last nights run on meteocentre: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=ukmet&map=na&run=00〈=en

Thank you for the sites. It'll be one more reason my wife gets mad at me whenever a snowstorm is imminent!

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I honestly do not feel of the angst born of sleet concerns is justified. 

It's really not going to make a big difference whether someone ends as sleet or doesn't....snowfall totals should be pretty uniform throughout the area.

There would have to be a great deal of sleet to really limit accumulations, and I'm not sure anyone in SNE sees that.

At least not beyond the immediate s coast, anyway.

 

I tend to agree inland. Depth of low level cold should allow for more snow than anything else. But southern 1/2 of CT into SE MA I could see it limiting accumulations if this warm push on the GFS is real. But as Tip mentioned, I think plain rain shouldn't be a big concern beyond the LI, the Cape, and perhaps the immediate shore of SE CT and RI.

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and GFS does not buy into the south trend

I do not see why anyone is talking about a south trend.  This has been steadily trending north for the last couple of days.  I would daresay I don't see why it can't continue to tick in that direction.

 

60" on the ground up here in 10 days?

 

That is awesome.  I'm hoping I can report 18" in the same time period.  lol

 

GFS does seem to thump pretty good before any changeover. Still would be a solid 6" in coastal zones before taint taken verbatim. Maybe not a true SWFE, but wondering if GFS would trend to having most of the precip in and tapering off before mid levels torch like we see in many traditional SWFEs.

 

I can see this being a very realistic outcome.

 

In the meantime, I like the look of the GFS for mby.  That little bonus at the end could actually put it in the MECS category up this way.  But I speak way too soon.

 

12.9/-7

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The question has to be asked... why is that concerning?  We get concerned when it goes the other direction and the QPF is not for real.

 

 

He might be speaking from a snow removal management perspective...if places that got 30"+ of snow 3-4 days ago end up with 12-14" of dense 1-1.25" QPF baking powder, I'm not sure how that is going to be coped with. That's going to be really tough considering there hasn't really been a lot of time to move or "tighten up" the snow piles from the blizzard.

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