BostonWX Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 No taint anywhere in new england, lol..... The RPM is warm like the GFS too FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 60" on the ground up here in 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS did better than the Euro for the blizzard. Will be interesting to see what the Euro does at 12z and most importantly which one winds up verifying in the end.Well the thermal profiles problem is still evident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'd actually like the GFS to verify for here, lol...it has the 850mb warm front just south for like 5 hours...that would be a QPF bomb. Yeah wicked thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ugh gfs, normally I don't buy it but after Juno it has me guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What's the likelihood, based on current models, for changeover in the interior? HFD, ORH, BED, etc? What about the BOS area? PVD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What's the likelihood, based on current models, for changeover in the interior? HFD, ORH, BED, etc? What about the BOS area? PVD? You're fine, enoy your foot on top of 3ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thumper to rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What's the likelihood, based on current models, for changeover in the interior? HFD, ORH, BED, etc? What about the BOS area? PVD? I think BOS-ORH northward is probably not going to taint...or if they do,it is maybe just briefly. South of the pike may taint, but we'll need to see the other trends...NAM trended slightly S while GFS obviously taints to the pike. Euro suite was well south of both, and I expect it to come north...but I'm not convinced of the GFS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 00z GGEM offers enough gradient too, for nearing blizzard conditions believe it or not.. Prolly not ... just sayin'. I was musing this last night. It's a coincidence that [maybe] falsely atones to how times have changed; the climate we swim around in year to year is different now than we remember growing up. "When I was a kid...," my old grand-pappy used to start off ... followed by the cliche vamp about up hill barefoot in three feet of snow, both ways. This is different than that, and I'm not grandpa. There were great storms as I recall in my youth. I lived in two places during the less than 30-years of age times: Michigan and Massachusetts. Both locations have experienced record-breaking Meteorological events, both subtle and gross. When I was just 11-years of age, I witnessed an (at that time) F3 tornado bore a path of blithe destruction right down the business thoroughfare of Kalamazoo. Two years prior the Great Lakes was visited by the great Cleveland Superbomb of Jan 1978, which set the inland North American, low barometric pressure of an eye-popping 951mb! I moved to Massachusetts in an utter culture shock, going from cow schit and corn stalks to gray walls of cold abyssal North Atlantic curling into thunderous applause upon the shores of Rockport Mass. Rockport .. There are always exceptions to any rule, but in general it's an arty town-community of high brows and old money, picturesquely jetting out into the Atlantic at the tip of Cape Ann. Interestingly juxtaposed just next door by the more provincial fishing culture of Gloucester's clam chowder, Crow Nest taverns, and the smell of pogey refinery type factories. One must traverse the proletariat to tour the privileged. The place is a dry town in self importance, with a cultural underground of hipsters and liberals ... usually the type that engage in that life-style by virtue their trust funds. Where I had come from, Kalamazoo, there were liberals, too. But there was also racial tension, drugs, ...the typical on-going tension between the decay of unionized America and preventing urban blithe. My parents decided that it was easier to guide these children in communities with better prospects so we made the move. In the Midwest the weather passion was all about convection. Boy did I love crispy cauliflower TCU on the distant horizons, and dreamt of the storms they must have been producing. To this day, even in Massachusetts, if the smell of the Michigan lea mixes with summer humidity, I think of a distant thundercloud's array. There are similarities in the weather between Michigan and Massachusetts... Obviously being temperate climate zones, we experience the four seasons. But indigenous to their respective geographical locations, do to the position relative to hemispheric scaled features, they have comparatively modulated versions. But one thing that was always common between the two was the 'storm than wait' rule of thumb. You waited lengthier times through weather ennui; you transpired through excitable eras, ..perhaps cashing in a big event; then, you resumed the next era in wait of the next era. I don't know if this is a sign of the changing climate? But, witnessing a solid regional-scoped 15"-30" historic event, followed not barely four days later by what is really appearing to be a 15" albeit short duration, but higher impact event from a synoptic scaled system was always next to impossible. Yet here we are. I can think of many great storms over the last several decades, and the vast majority of them required putting in the time before the next celebration. It seems that management has run out on the hotel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS only model that taints SNE. I think we know whose wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Upton is gonna have to backtrack south of 84 on their maps yet again if gfs and ukie hold any weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its the nam. I think that's enough said . Euro is all snow for you. Enjoy it instead of worrying One page back you said nam coming in colder, ride it....gotta keep the spin straight brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS only model that taints SNE. I think we know whose wrong NAM and RGEM would be very close...and I'm not convinced we don't see one more tick north...you know how these SWFEs can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is a torch aloft to ORH and BOS lol..What dung it doesn't have to be wrong, necessarily. Even the cold NAM ... the FRH grid shows that the coldest part of the column is actually below the 875 (~) mb sigma level. Usually when you have a -8, -5, -3C type of looking, you have to wonder what is going on just above the 800mb level. I have actually seen 9,000' tall sleet columns before. Not saying that is happening here ... just that it is not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS also overamped some of these lows in the 48-60 hr timeframe before. Not saying it's wrong, but I don't know enough about the "new" version to react on any shift one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Color me skeptical of the qpf bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS was pretty UKIE like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 QPF bomb is real. Just depends on how much is snow in a certain area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Color me skeptical of the qpf bomb. I'm not too skeptical...I think an inch of liquid (or close to it anyway) is quite possible...mostly in an 8 hour period. This is some massive sloped profiles we see with the arctic dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS also overamped some of these lows in the 48-60 hr timeframe before. Not saying it's wrong, but I don't know enough about the "new" version to react on any shift one way or another. Good point but I'm still concerned this is another short term bust for fairfield county. I'd like the rgem to tick south now to feel more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM and RGEM would be very close...and I'm not convinced we don't see one more tick north...you know how these SWFEs can work. I don't think this is really a true swfe..it's kind of a funky pseudo redeveloper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM and RGEM would be very close...and I'm not convinced we don't see one more tick north...you know how these SWFEs can work. Yea, I don't get the increduality towards the idea of sleet into sne on the back end of a SWFE...oh wait, I do...the majority of it is from Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 One page back you said nam coming in colder, ride it....gotta keep the spin straight brother! I said ride Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 60" on the ground up here in 10 days? Looks like the average of the models is 8-14 - somewhere in that area for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I said ride Euro I did a few days ago and my arse still hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM and RGEM would be very close...and I'm not convinced we don't see one more tick north...you know how these SWFEs can work. Just give it time. Powderfreak and I haven't perfected running these out of our basements yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 QPF bomb is real. Just depends on how much is snow in a certain area. Yeah...there's pretty strong lift across the entire 290K-295K isosurface layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm sticking with 6-12/8-14 south to north up to central New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yea, I don't get the increduality towards the idea of sleet into sne on the back end of a SWFE...oh wait, I do...the majority of it is from Kev Well you're not jackpotting..so let's not get crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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