Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I grew up near the ocean and fully understand as you do the climo, sleet and rain is usually the way to go, yea I think it pings but inconsequential after a banging front end. Thats only pack preserver sleet anyways. How much did you get in the Blizz Matt? I think people are misinterpreting my conservative call and ping expectations as me being whiny or having a meltdown. I'm on the coast, I can deal with some pings and as you said, even welcome the bulletproof aspect. Just trying to be realistic and I know Kevin just loves to argue those who don't always go balls to the wall. Like I said earlier, as long as whatever falls is frozen, I will enjoy. Just because I don't expect the shoreline to jackpot, doesn't make me a Debbie. As for the Blizzard, had about 14" here. Just missed out on the real good stuff by 10-20 miles. But still a respectable storm. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z RGEM its at the end of the run but looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think people are misinterpreting my conservative call and ping expectations as me being whiny or having a meltdown. I'm on the coast, I can deal with some pings and as you said, even welcome the bulletproof aspect. Just trying to be realistic and I know Kevin just loves to argue those who don't always go balls to the wall. Like I said earlier, as long as whatever falls is frozen, I will enjoy. Just because I don't expect the shoreline to jackpot, doesn't make me a Debbie. As for the Blizzard, had about 14" here. Just missed out on the real good stuff by 10-20 miles. But still a respectable storm. Sent from my iPhone I find your posts to be reasonable, don't think it is whining. Being on the coastline you always expect taint and just hope it doesn't turn to liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This storm is looking better up this way than I expected. Yesterdays storm was a bust, but I never really liked the look of that system in the models, very disjointed. Running the long term models just puts a huge grin on my face.This pattern is just epic, its shot after shot of clippers and coastals for another 2 weeks. Granted they may not all materialize, but it just looks like this is the beginning third of an epic run! Can't recall such an active pattern, with a great setup and plenty of cold air abound for such a long period of time. Might be a record winter for many locations this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is a cool map from COD showing the 850 hpa temeprature advection. Notice the strong advection over CT/RI that really blossoms as the thermal gradient strengthens along the front. South of the Pike snow growth isn't all that impressive with the lift maximized around 800 hpa (which is quite warm - only -1c or -2c for HFD per 6z NAM). But there will be a sweet spot north of the Pike where lift is a bit higher up as the front is sloped. The boundary layer is really cold so some low level omega could yield surprisingly fluffy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah RGEM looks pretty NAMish at 48h...the 00z run tonight will be quite telling as it will be much more in the RGEM's wheelhouse for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is a cool map from COD showing the 850 hpa temeprature advection. Notice the strong advection over CT/RI that really blossoms as the thermal gradient strengthens along the front. namNE_850_tadv_051.gif South of the Pike snow growth isn't all that impressive with the lift maximized around 800 hpa (which is quite warm - only -1c or -2c for HFD per 6z NAM). But there will be a sweet spot north of the Pike where lift is a bit higher up as the front is sloped. The boundary layer is really cold so some low level omega could yield surprisingly fluffy snow. will you be back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is a cool map from COD showing the 850 hpa temeprature advection. Notice the strong advection over CT/RI that really blossoms as the thermal gradient strengthens along the front. namNE_850_tadv_051.gif South of the Pike snow growth isn't all that impressive with the lift maximized around 800 hpa (which is quite warm - only -1c or -2c for HFD per 6z NAM). But there will be a sweet spot north of the Pike where lift is a bit higher up as the front is sloped. The boundary layer is really cold so some low level omega could yield surprisingly fluffy snow. Yeah good post...I was saying how near and just north of the 850mb front could get pretty walloped by a QPF bomb for 3-4 hours.Even without great snow growth, you might get 1-2" per hour of baking powder..."man snow"....lol. If there's good snow growth (esp a bit further north), I could see some brief banding that produces 2-3" per hour in a couple hour burst. Some really excellent thermal gradients going on in this system to produce excellent lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 RGEM appears warmer than the comparable 60 hr GGEM. Much so across NJ and PA at the same time points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah good post...I was saying how near and just north of the 850mb front could get pretty walloped by a QPF bomb for 3-4 hours.Even without great snow growth, you might get 1-2" per hour of baking powder..."man snow"....lol. If there's good snow growth (esp a bit further north), I could see some brief banding that produces 2-3" per hour in a couple hour burst. Some really excellent thermal gradients going on in this system to produce excellent lift. Yeah I think we wind up getting that 1-2" baking powder stuff here. Should be "dense" but not wet. I like the idea of that even heavier band up to the north for jackpot zone. Not sure if it's Mass Pike or Rt 2 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is a cool map from COD showing the 850 hpa temeprature advection. Notice the strong advection over CT/RI that really blossoms as the thermal gradient strengthens along the front. namNE_850_tadv_051.gif South of the Pike snow growth isn't all that impressive with the lift maximized around 800 hpa (which is quite warm - only -1c or -2c for HFD per 6z NAM). But there will be a sweet spot north of the Pike where lift is a bit higher up as the front is sloped. The boundary layer is really cold so some low level omega could yield surprisingly fluffy snow. As the NAM shifts south..so does that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As the NAM shifts south..so does that I think 8-10 is a reasonable amount for most of us. I don't see this shifting south to bring that good snow growth band south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 will you be back? My flight gets into BDL at 11 p.m. tomorrow - hopefully it's not cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My flight gets into BDL at 11 p.m. tomorrow - hopefully it's not cancelled. looks like we start after that no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think 8-10 is a reasonable amount for most of us. I don't see this shifting south to bring that good snow growth band south. good start , Nam is very robust for BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 good start , Nam is very robust for BDL I like 8-12 Statewide with a few towns in the 14-15 range across N 1/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 good start , Nam is very robust for BDL Yeah - I'd be thrilled to get 10" of snow. It's hard to get double digits without some kind of comma head assist... but the models do keep this event a bit of a longer duration than many SWFE kind of storms. The low level omega that persists after the main thump could put down a couple inches of fluff on top of the denser snow with the boundary layer so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol at the 12z GFS, 988 mb east of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 and GFS does not buy into the south trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is a torch aloft to ORH and BOS lol..What dung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 lol at the 12z GFS, 988 mb east of LI 987 @57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS is a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 US models are so, so ,so bad..Other countries must just sit back and laugh at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its a bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's got a decent back end though. That H7 low really tries to develop. QPF bomb too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It seems at this point the 700mb temps go up to -5.3C in ORH at their highest, 850's are -7.4C and surface at about 15F. The Bufkit snow estimates for all models are for 10" min to about 15" max. Is all of the above realistic? Am I misreading something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 pretty good for the berks and NCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 1" QPF or so in about 6 hrs for BOS..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 US models are so, so ,so bad..Other countries must just sit back and laugh at us GFS did better than the Euro for the blizzard. Will be interesting to see what the Euro does at 12z and most importantly which one winds up verifying in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'd actually like the GFS to verify for here, lol...it has the 850mb warm front just south for like 5 hours...that would be a QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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