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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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I feel like BUFKIT spits out 18 to 1 in every storm...I've noticed it has a real inflation bias. :lol:

 

 

That said, in this setup, I could definitely see that happening on that northern periphery where a good band probably sets up.

You are pretty much wrong in that assessment on the Bufkit I look at, for example ORH is 13-1 for this storm , initial 19-1 to as low as 12-1

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You are pretty much wrong in that assessment on the Bufkit I look at, for example ORH is 13-1 for this storm , initial 19-1 to as low as 12-1

 

 

I've been looking at BUFKIT for like 15 years.

 

It does ok in some storms but I rarely use it for ratios. I prefer to look at the soundings myself and the synoptics. There's a lot of nuances that go into ratios and BUFKIT isn't going to get them all right. Esp when you are relying of course on only NAM and GFS data....that said, I won't get them all right either.

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What trend? Nam and euro are both below 0 at 850 to CT coast

NAM spits out nearly half of HVN's qpf as pingers...and that's increased every run. GFS was all snow until 6z when it introduced a touch of fzra...likely too shallow with the cold but still a trend at the mid levels. Euro has bumped north slightly each run. I didn't look closely at 0z, but 12z will introduce mixing concerns for the coast if 0z wasn't already there.

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NAM spits out nearly half of HVN's qpf as pingers...and that's increased every run. GFS was all snow until 6z when it introduced a touch of fzra...likely too shallow with the cold but still a trend at the mid levels. Euro has bumped north slightly each run. I didn't look closely at 0z, but 12z will introduce mixing concerns for the coast if 0z wasn't already there.

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I've been looking at BUFKIT for like 15 years.

 

It does ok in some storms but I rarely use it for ratios. I prefer to look at the soundings myself and the synoptics. There's a lot of nuances that go into ratios and BUFKIT isn't going to get them all right. Esp when you are relying of course on only NAM and GFS data....that said, I won't get them all right either.

The newly developed bufkit profiles using soundings  have come a very long way since your youth. The last 3 years Bufkit has made immense improvements and I have yet to see any glaring errors in our area. Just wish we could use Euro data to generate output. Cross sections have been extremely useful this year also. I have to agree with you about the south coast qpf isobombs, they may taint with sleet but that will probably be brief.

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Having the nam as part of your justification is like using Kim Jong as a personal reference.

The multi day trend is north I'll be surprised but happy if it stops

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You can't discount the euro/gfs/ggem. Those get very little, if any taint much north of the south coast. 12z today will shed a lot of light on whether there is any legs to this "warmth"

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As Dryslot and others have suggested, high ratios should offset the fact that NNE won't be in the QPF bullseye. This one will be solid across the board. It's a quick hitter but a nice event, and I love the cold (I have a fetish for snowstorms with single-digit temps).

 

Some of us have always wished that the day after the Super Bowl was a holiday -- looks like it may be this year at least!

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