Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 If there's any trend here it is north there is no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I feel like BUFKIT spits out 18 to 1 in every storm...I've noticed it has a real inflation bias. That said, in this setup, I could definitely see that happening on that northern periphery where a good band probably sets up. You are pretty much wrong in that assessment on the Bufkit I look at, for example ORH is 13-1 for this storm , initial 19-1 to as low as 12-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 There actually is blocking. We have a transient -NAO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 scooter, SREFs still amped up. Looks even worse than 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 There actually is blocking. We have a transient -NAO ridge. Hobo ridging often doesn't get it done in weak ninos. This may go heat miser on us down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You are pretty much wrong in that assessment on the Bufkit I look at, for example ORH is 13-1 for this storm , initial 19-1 to as low as 12-1 I've been looking at BUFKIT for like 15 years. It does ok in some storms but I rarely use it for ratios. I prefer to look at the soundings myself and the synoptics. There's a lot of nuances that go into ratios and BUFKIT isn't going to get them all right. Esp when you are relying of course on only NAM and GFS data....that said, I won't get them all right either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its not going to sleet north of Nyc. This is Dec 2007 almost exact Trend won't be denied. Pingers for southern 1/3 of CT easily. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Gibbs says 15:1 ratios for ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Trend won't be denied. Pingers for southern 1/3 of CT easily. Sent from my iPhone What trend? Nam and euro are both below 0 at 850 to CT coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What trend? Nam and euro are both below 0 at 850 to CT coast NAM pings up to about MMK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is cold to coast as you can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Euro much colder . Ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2015 Author Share Posted January 31, 2015 What trend? Nam and euro are both below 0 at 850 to CT coast Having the nam as part of your justification is like using Kim Jong as a personal reference. The multi day trend is north I'll be surprised but happy if it stops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What trend? Nam and euro are both below 0 at 850 to CT coast NAM spits out nearly half of HVN's qpf as pingers...and that's increased every run. GFS was all snow until 6z when it introduced a touch of fzra...likely too shallow with the cold but still a trend at the mid levels. Euro has bumped north slightly each run. I didn't look closely at 0z, but 12z will introduce mixing concerns for the coast if 0z wasn't already there. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM spits out nearly half of HVN's qpf as pingers...and that's increased every run. GFS was all snow until 6z when it introduced a touch of fzra...likely too shallow with the cold but still a trend at the mid levels. Euro has bumped north slightly each run. I didn't look closely at 0z, but 12z will introduce mixing concerns for the coast if 0z wasn't already there. Sent from my iPhone See maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is cold to coast as you can see So to support your argument of NAM being below 0 at 850 to the coast, you post and image showing the 0 line 5-15 miles inland?Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Snowiest week of anyone who has lived in Eastern SNE's life, now if thats not epicosity I don"t know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So to support your argument of NAM being below 0 at 850 to the coast, you post and image showing the 0 line 5-15 miles inland? Sent from my iPhone Yes..when you say half of precip is sleet to HVN..That is false. If rates are heavy..0c is isothermal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So to support your argument of NAM being below 0 at 850 to the coast, you post and image showing the 0 line 5-15 miles inland? Sent from my iPhone I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes..when you say half of precip is sleet to HVN..That is false. If rates are heavy..0c is isothermal It could also be warmer above 850mb. Just saying...one quick level snap shot may not show the whole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've been looking at BUFKIT for like 15 years. It does ok in some storms but I rarely use it for ratios. I prefer to look at the soundings myself and the synoptics. There's a lot of nuances that go into ratios and BUFKIT isn't going to get them all right. Esp when you are relying of course on only NAM and GFS data....that said, I won't get them all right either. The newly developed bufkit profiles using soundings have come a very long way since your youth. The last 3 years Bufkit has made immense improvements and I have yet to see any glaring errors in our area. Just wish we could use Euro data to generate output. Cross sections have been extremely useful this year also. I have to agree with you about the south coast qpf isobombs, they may taint with sleet but that will probably be brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes..when you say half of precip is sleet to HVN..That is false. If rates are heavy..0c is isothermal Compare yesterday's 6z run to today's. What makes you think the trend has stopped? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Having the nam as part of your justification is like using Kim Jong as a personal reference. The multi day trend is north I'll be surprised but happy if it stops .You can't discount the euro/gfs/ggem. Those get very little, if any taint much north of the south coast. 12z today will shed a lot of light on whether there is any legs to this "warmth" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 scooter, SREFs still amped up. Looks even worse than 03z The 9z E-Wall ARW tracks the H7 mid-level low over Montreal. I doubt that happens, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Snowiest week of anyone who has lived in Eastern SNE's life, now if thats not epicosity I don"t know what is. Ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This storm reminds me a bit of the Feb 5 storm last year...the storm that started our epic stretch in February. OH Valley runner slamming into a frigid high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 9z E-Wall ARW tracks the H7 mid-level low over Montreal. I doubt that happens, lol.Yeah...throw those out. 12z NAM may end up a tick south too, but it's close to 6z. Goalposts narrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 As Dryslot and others have suggested, high ratios should offset the fact that NNE won't be in the QPF bullseye. This one will be solid across the board. It's a quick hitter but a nice event, and I love the cold (I have a fetish for snowstorms with single-digit temps). Some of us have always wished that the day after the Super Bowl was a holiday -- looks like it may be this year at least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Man what an epic 7-10 days for SNE. You knew it was going to turn around...futility was not happening this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Compare yesterday's 6z run to today's. What makes you think the trend has stopped? Sent from my iPhone Its the nam. I think that's enough said . Euro is all snow for you. Enjoy it instead of worrying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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