Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREFs pretty much taint close to the pike.. They'll end up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I have to admit I'm pretty worried now for quite a bit of mixing here. I know those snow map algorithms suck but the 06z GFS and NAM have southeast CT and SW RI in a screw zone mixing quite a bit and ending with a total of 2" on the NAM to 6" on the GFS. I have significantly tempered my expectations here. Maybe 4-8" for the south coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 . They'll end up verifying. I'm just stating what they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I see the UKMET has over 0.5" of QPF up here with SFC temps below zero. Yeah, right. Take the under when it's this cold, but I still like the mid-level tracks...though still a bit too far south for here. Central VT/NH look solid.The Ukie is a northern outlier anyways, but all models are cold right into CNE. Jeff may be below zero for this event while I flirt with the goose egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Seems like it still coming north with every run. At this rate it was ping to NH border by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pretty much a lock to ping for those along the LI sound cutting back totals, I think Upton map is too high once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well 12z should help seal the deal with all pieces sampled. I don't think it can come much past what the SREFs have and I wouldn't worry about them at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The Ukie is a northern outlier anyways, but all models are cold right into CNE. Jeff may be below zero for this event while I flirt with the goose egg. Yes, Its looking like we will be, Won't be much water content in this one...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Fwiw, And not very much probably, But the 09z Srefs bring the 1.0" right to the Maine coast, So that was a tic or two north of the 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yes, Its looking like we will, Be, Won't be much water content in this one...........lol Maybe I can skip the snowblower again in hopes that it'll just waft away in the breeze.. Up to 5.1. Double digits en route, ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm just stating what they have. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pretty much a lock to ping for those along the LI sound cutting back totals, I think Upton map is too high once again. It's a pretty massive front ender though even in those areas. But yeah, I think I'd shift 10-14 about 50 miles north of where they have it right now. You still have to respect the Euro being a bit south though and the RGEM wasn't quite as amped as the NAM/GFS either though it's kind of on the edge of its range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Crazy how guidance shifts in the medium range. To think this was once a lower mid Atlantic storm....and Now we in sne worry about taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well 12z should help seal the deal with all pieces sampled. I don't think it can come much past what the SREFs have and I wouldn't worry about them at the moment.. MPM is worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just so I'm clear on the definititon: pingers = freezing rain or sleet or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This really is in the wheelhouse of the GFS and Euro. No reason to go against them at all right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just so I'm clear on the definititon: pingers = freezing rain or sleet or both? . Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah there's no doubt in my mind at this point this taints in coastal zones. Honestly a few more ticks north and we're flirting with rain. There's still 36 -42 hours till go time, and this thing has made subtle shifts north every cycle. My early call for CT would be 4-7" south of a line from HPN to PVD. 7-12" north with some spot 14" amounts in the hills. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 There could be a bit of a qpf bomb just north of the 850mb warm front which is really sharply defined....then your classic lower-QPF/high ratio fluff band over CNE up where the 700-500 goodies are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 There could be a bit of a qpf bomb just north of the 850mb warm front which is really sharply defined....then your classic lower-QPF/high ratio fluff band over CNE up where the 700-500 goodies are. Yeah you can see that. Might give srn CT a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Would be a pelt fest further south.Its not going to sleet north of Nyc. This is Dec 2007 almost exact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This really is in the wheelhouse of the GFS and Euro. No reason to go against them at all right now. We'll ignore the debacle of five days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Its not going to sleet north of Nyc. This is Dec 2007 almost exact Dec '07 sleeted to HFD briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We'll ignore the debacle of five days ago.. You're in complete meltdown mode, you should take a break fro you're sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 There could be a bit of a qpf bomb just north of the 850mb warm front which is really sharply defined....then your classic lower-QPF/high ratio fluff band over CNE up where the 700-500 goodies are. Bufkit has been spitting out qpf up here in the 15-20:1 ratio range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Crazy how guidance shifts in the medium range. To think this was once a lower mid Atlantic storm....and Now we in sne worry about taint.. And why we preach time and time again to not take solutions seriously beyond 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Bufkit has been spitting out qpf up here in the 15-20:1 ratio range I feel like BUFKIT spits out 18 to 1 in every storm...I've noticed it has a real inflation bias. That said, in this setup, I could definitely see that happening on that northern periphery where a good band probably sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Dec '07 sleeted to HFD briefly.Just south of HFD. This setup is a bit colder than that and I remeber the thought was sleet would get to pike in that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In a band that gets going right along the front, thunder snow is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I feel like BUFKIT spits out 18 to 1 in every storm...I've noticed it has a real inflation bias. That said, in this setup, I could definitely see that happening on that northern periphery where a good band probably sets up. It worked out for the Blizzard, And would not be surprised if it does for this one, That is a decent track as modeled for a fluff bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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