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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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I have to admit I'm pretty worried now for quite a bit of mixing here. I know those snow map algorithms suck but the 06z GFS and NAM have southeast CT and SW RI in a screw zone mixing quite a bit and ending with a total of 2" on the NAM to 6" on the GFS. I have significantly tempered my expectations here. Maybe 4-8" for the south coast?

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I see the UKMET has over 0.5" of QPF up here with SFC temps below zero. Yeah, right. Take the under when it's this cold, but I still like the mid-level tracks...though still a bit too far south for here. Central VT/NH look solid.

The Ukie is a northern outlier anyways, but all models are cold right into CNE. Jeff may be below zero for this event while I flirt with the goose egg.
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Pretty much a lock to ping for those along the LI sound cutting back totals, I think Upton map is too high once again.

 

 

It's a pretty massive front ender though even in those areas.

 

But yeah, I think I'd shift 10-14 about 50 miles north of where they have it right now. You still have to respect the Euro being a bit south though and the RGEM wasn't quite as amped as the NAM/GFS either though it's kind of on the edge of its range right now.

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Yeah there's no doubt in my mind at this point this taints in coastal zones. Honestly a few more ticks north and we're flirting with rain. There's still 36 -42 hours till go time, and this thing has made subtle shifts north every cycle. My early call for CT would be 4-7" south of a line from HPN to PVD. 7-12" north with some spot 14" amounts in the hills.

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Bufkit has been spitting out qpf up here in the 15-20:1 ratio range

 

 

I feel like BUFKIT spits out 18 to 1 in every storm...I've noticed it has a real inflation bias. :lol:

 

 

That said, in this setup, I could definitely see that happening on that northern periphery where a good band probably sets up.

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I feel like BUFKIT spits out 18 to 1 in every storm...I've noticed it has a real inflation bias. :lol:

 

 

That said, in this setup, I could definitely see that happening on that northern periphery where a good band probably sets up.

 

It worked out for the Blizzard, And would not be surprised if it does for this one, That is a decent track as modeled for a fluff bomb

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