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2-1-15 to 2-2-15 Snow and Mix to Snow Storm


Clinch Leatherwood

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Expect 12-16 inches for most of southern and central New England, except 6-12 in southeast MA with mixing and phase change briefly to rain. 8-12 for northern New England. Max wind gusts 55-60 mph near Atlantic and 35-45 mph inland. Severe blowing and drifting given the snow pack and low temps. Max temp may make 45 F in ACK and 37 F just south of BOS, 32 F at BOS where snow may briefly mix with freezing rain at height of storm. Heaviest snows once again ORH to Tolland.

 

(phase of moon = N Max the best for severe storm development)

 

near-blizzard conditions, would consider a blizzard warning for e MA, ne CT and n RI, s NH and coastal ME.

Just for this I will run my 3 miles in -20 wind chills naked

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Three-hour soundings on the GFS are all snow down here.  NAM too, though it gets close to pinging briefly around 800MB.  Discounting the UKMET, I think all major models are showing all snow at this point for central CT.  QPF rages from about .8 to a bit more than 1" LE.  A blend would indicate a general 8-12" snowfall for here.  The later part of the storm looks mighty cold.

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It's not beyond the realm of possibility that GC falls short of warning criteria.  We probably will end up with 6"+, but any ticks south will make high end advisory as reasonable an expectation as low-end warning.

 

At this point, I think it would be fun to run the entirety of met winter without a warning snowfall.  Why ruin a bad thing.

 

This winter continues to suck with only 33" on the season, and only 23" of it in Met Winter.  Just pathetic.

 

At least we have cool temps and a breeze going for us out here.  Hoping to stay in single digits, but will likely top out at 10-11.

 

2.2/-7

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Seems like we've settled on an 8-12..lolli 15 type of storm pike south with 4-8 north

hope it doesn't tickle tickle north anymore, could see scenario where Tolland pings a bit more.

 

probably settle in to 8-12" snowfall 40 miles either side pike w S coast pinging a bit. Cape Cod could be wild card.

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It's not beyond the realm of possibility that GC falls short of warning criteria.  We probably will end up with 6"+, but any ticks south will make high end advisory as reasonable an expectation as low-end warning.

 

At this point, I think it would be fun to run the entirety of met winter without a warning snowfall.  Why ruin a bad thing.

 

This winter continues to suck with only 33" on the season, and only 23" of it in Met Winter.  Just pathetic.

 

At least we have cool temps and a breeze going for us out here.  Hoping to stay in single digits, but will likely top out at 10-11.

 

2.2/-7

 

Are you high? You are going to do extremely well.

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Are you high? You are going to do extremely well.

 

That's what you and others were saying at 11:00p.m. Monday night.  lol

 

I'm ready for Messenger to start in with his reports of obscure models and their indications for lower qpf and further south ticks.

 

Seriously, though, I'm not not ruling out anything.  This could end up a low-end warning/high-end advisory, and I'm not ruling out the possibility of a hefty snow either.  It all depends on some final ticks and the end result will likely be somewhere in between.

 

What's not debatable is that this winter sucks for out here.  Note:  I'm sounding like you in past years.

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That's what you and others were saying at 11:00p.m. Monday night.  lol

 

I'm ready for Messenger to start in with his reports of obscure models and their indications for lower qpf and further south ticks.

 

Seriously, though, I'm not not ruling out anything.  This could end up a low-end warning/high-end advisory, and I'm not ruling out the possibility of a hefty snow either.  It all depends on some final ticks and the end result will likely be somewhere in between.

 

What's not debatable is that this winter sucks for out here.  Note:  I'm sounding like you in past years.

Different type of system than last Monday. We are well within the warning snow goal post. I'm not worried unless I saw like a 100mi shift in Euro or something. Should be powder bomb.

Although nothing big out here since November you did have snow cover the entire month of January when most did not.

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Different type of system than last Monday. We are well within the warning snow goal post. I'm not worried unless I saw like a 100mi shift in Euro or something. Should be powder bomb.

Although nothing big out here since November you did have snow cover the entire month of January when most did not.

 

I know it's a very different type of system.  With regard to the bolded, I was actually thinking about that yesterday.  Very little solace in 5" of glacier that would get replenished with a continued replenishment of snow and ice.

 

I just noticed that  BOX has a separate WSW just for Western Franklin and Western Hampshire counties.  They know how things have gone for GC and are playing it safe.  :)

 

2.4/-7

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This shows some signs of SWFE type nuances. Not necessarily the taint issue, but screaming SW winds at 700 may make this more of a potent front ender. A few things make it different though. I think we'll see lighter snows after a weak 700 dryslot moves through thanks to 850 winds out of the NE and arctic air. Despite QPF, tough to really go higher than 10-12 unless those previous things I mentioned really help add up the fluff. Someone near BOS will benefit from the CF by a few inches too.

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This shows some signs of SWFE type nuances. Not necessarily the taint issue, but screaming SW winds at 700 may make this more of a potent front ender. A few things make it different though. I think we'll see lighter snows after a weak 700 dryslot moves through thanks to 850 winds out of the NE and arctic air. Despite QPF, tough to really go higher than 10-12 unless those previous things I mentioned really help add up the fluff. Someone near BOS will benefit from the CF by a few inches too.

 

I think there are a lot of SWFE characteristics. 

 

The speed of the system isn't going to help accumulations much, either.  It's not deadly fast, but if it were slower, higher amounts would be more wide-spread.

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I see the UKMET has over 0.5" of QPF up here with SFC temps below zero. Yeah, right. Take the under when it's this cold, but I still like the mid-level tracks...though still a bit too far south for here. Central VT/NH look solid.

 

Hopefully, we'll be able to get good ratios.  Regardless, it's going to be powdery.

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