Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Expect 12-16 inches for most of southern and central New England, except 6-12 in southeast MA with mixing and phase change briefly to rain. 8-12 for northern New England. Max wind gusts 55-60 mph near Atlantic and 35-45 mph inland. Severe blowing and drifting given the snow pack and low temps. Max temp may make 45 F in ACK and 37 F just south of BOS, 32 F at BOS where snow may briefly mix with freezing rain at height of storm. Heaviest snows once again ORH to Tolland. (phase of moon = N Max the best for severe storm development) near-blizzard conditions, would consider a blizzard warning for e MA, ne CT and n RI, s NH and coastal ME. Just for this I will run my 3 miles in -20 wind chills naked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Soundings actually are more maybe just south of GHG to central CT it seems for any ping chance on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Soundings actually are more maybe just south of GHG to central CT it seems for any ping chance on the gfs.I was going to say that looks pretty far south, probably coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I was going to say that looks pretty far south, probably coast. I didn't look at PYM or HVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I didn't look at PYM or HVN.what a thumping here,might hear some cracks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This "shifting" sounds more like noise at this point. Someone is going to get dumped on. I'd blend the euro and GFS and gem right now as a basis for a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Three-hour soundings on the GFS are all snow down here. NAM too, though it gets close to pinging briefly around 800MB. Discounting the UKMET, I think all major models are showing all snow at this point for central CT. QPF rages from about .8 to a bit more than 1" LE. A blend would indicate a general 8-12" snowfall for here. The later part of the storm looks mighty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Seems like we've settled on an 8-12..lolli 15 type of storm pike south with 4-8 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 FWIW the RGEM looks a little closer to the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's not beyond the realm of possibility that GC falls short of warning criteria. We probably will end up with 6"+, but any ticks south will make high end advisory as reasonable an expectation as low-end warning. At this point, I think it would be fun to run the entirety of met winter without a warning snowfall. Why ruin a bad thing. This winter continues to suck with only 33" on the season, and only 23" of it in Met Winter. Just pathetic. At least we have cool temps and a breeze going for us out here. Hoping to stay in single digits, but will likely top out at 10-11. 2.2/-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Seems like we've settled on an 8-12..lolli 15 type of storm pike south with 4-8 north hope it doesn't tickle tickle north anymore, could see scenario where Tolland pings a bit more. probably settle in to 8-12" snowfall 40 miles either side pike w S coast pinging a bit. Cape Cod could be wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 6z GFS and NAM have decent H7 and H85 tracks for NNE...almost high ratio deform looking somewhere across VT/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's not beyond the realm of possibility that GC falls short of warning criteria. We probably will end up with 6"+, but any ticks south will make high end advisory as reasonable an expectation as low-end warning. At this point, I think it would be fun to run the entirety of met winter without a warning snowfall. Why ruin a bad thing. This winter continues to suck with only 33" on the season, and only 23" of it in Met Winter. Just pathetic. At least we have cool temps and a breeze going for us out here. Hoping to stay in single digits, but will likely top out at 10-11. 2.2/-7 Are you high? You are going to do extremely well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are you high? You are going to do extremely well. MPM you should do better than most, especially with low level east flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We looking at an early Monday morning start time for Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 MPM you should do better than most, especially with low level east flow. I know. This also will have a significant cstl front for a time just NW of BOS before collapsing SE. Could really pound 128 area for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We looking at an early Monday morning start time for Boston? Yeah prior to dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are you high? You are going to do extremely well. That's what you and others were saying at 11:00p.m. Monday night. lol I'm ready for Messenger to start in with his reports of obscure models and their indications for lower qpf and further south ticks. Seriously, though, I'm not not ruling out anything. This could end up a low-end warning/high-end advisory, and I'm not ruling out the possibility of a hefty snow either. It all depends on some final ticks and the end result will likely be somewhere in between. What's not debatable is that this winter sucks for out here. Note: I'm sounding like you in past years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's what you and others were saying at 11:00p.m. Monday night. lol I'm ready for Messenger to start in with his reports of obscure models and their indications for lower qpf and further south. All westerners know the messenger SE trend nowcast posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah prior to dawn.thx. Shouldn't affect my flight then. Was more worried about an earlier start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's what you and others were saying at 11:00p.m. Monday night. lol I'm ready for Messenger to start in with his reports of obscure models and their indications for lower qpf and further south ticks. Seriously, though, I'm not not ruling out anything. This could end up a low-end warning/high-end advisory, and I'm not ruling out the possibility of a hefty snow either. It all depends on some final ticks and the end result will likely be somewhere in between. What's not debatable is that this winter sucks for out here. Note: I'm sounding like you in past years. Different type of system than last Monday. We are well within the warning snow goal post. I'm not worried unless I saw like a 100mi shift in Euro or something. Should be powder bomb. Although nothing big out here since November you did have snow cover the entire month of January when most did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Different type of system than last Monday. We are well within the warning snow goal post. I'm not worried unless I saw like a 100mi shift in Euro or something. Should be powder bomb. Although nothing big out here since November you did have snow cover the entire month of January when most did not. I know it's a very different type of system. With regard to the bolded, I was actually thinking about that yesterday. Very little solace in 5" of glacier that would get replenished with a continued replenishment of snow and ice. I just noticed that BOX has a separate WSW just for Western Franklin and Western Hampshire counties. They know how things have gone for GC and are playing it safe. 2.4/-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This shows some signs of SWFE type nuances. Not necessarily the taint issue, but screaming SW winds at 700 may make this more of a potent front ender. A few things make it different though. I think we'll see lighter snows after a weak 700 dryslot moves through thanks to 850 winds out of the NE and arctic air. Despite QPF, tough to really go higher than 10-12 unless those previous things I mentioned really help add up the fluff. Someone near BOS will benefit from the CF by a few inches too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This shows some signs of SWFE type nuances. Not necessarily the taint issue, but screaming SW winds at 700 may make this more of a potent front ender. A few things make it different though. I think we'll see lighter snows after a weak 700 dryslot moves through thanks to 850 winds out of the NE and arctic air. Despite QPF, tough to really go higher than 10-12 unless those previous things I mentioned really help add up the fluff. Someone near BOS will benefit from the CF by a few inches too. I think there are a lot of SWFE characteristics. The speed of the system isn't going to help accumulations much, either. It's not deadly fast, but if it were slower, higher amounts would be more wide-spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Mike, this will be your biggest storm of the season. It will eclipse the November one. No worries This is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I see the UKMET has over 0.5" of QPF up here with SFC temps below zero. Yeah, right. Take the under when it's this cold, but I still like the mid-level tracks...though still a bit too far south for here. Central VT/NH look solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We dont toss the euro. Wow. Big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 SREFs pretty much taint close to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I see the UKMET has over 0.5" of QPF up here with SFC temps below zero. Yeah, right. Take the under when it's this cold, but I still like the mid-level tracks...though still a bit too far south for here. Central VT/NH look solid. Hopefully, we'll be able to get good ratios. Regardless, it's going to be powdery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Would be a pelt fest further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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