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Feb 1st/2nd Threat - Banter Thread


terpsnation

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I was at best cautiously optimistic. Last week f'd me up. Let's all just pray really hard that this isn't winters last hurrah because if we get skunked in this pattern it pretty much is.

 

No, this definitely is not winter's last hurrah.

 

We've still got the inevitable suppressed SE snow storm to get through yet.

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I was at best cautiously optimistic. Last week f'd me up. Let's all just pray really hard that this isn't winters last hurrah because if we get skunked in this pattern it pretty much is.

I hope it is. I hope we get a massive ridge in the east by mid-February with driving rainstorms that bring us severe weather and melt all of New England's snow. I hope we get our last freeze before March and torch more than we did in March 2012. I wouldn't mind an 80 degree day on Feb 20th... it would be kinda cool.

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I hope it is. I hope we get a massive ridge in the east by mid-February with driving rainstorms that being us severe weather and melt all of New England's snow. I hope we get our last freeze before March and torch more than we did in March 2012. I wouldn't mind an 80 degree day on Feb 20th... it would be kinda cool.

 

It's like you are living in my head this morning. Preach.

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dang, I was hoping to check out this snow plow tracker for this storm...  any other counties have this?  I just found it this moring.

 

http://apps.harfordcountymd.gov/SnowPlowTracker

 

HoCo:

http://www.howardcountymd.gov/iframetemplate.aspx?id=4294969851

 

They had a plow tracker site since at least the 2003 bliz. I remember because my street was one of the few "unplowed" a week later.

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Without models of some kind, we'd be back in 1960. And yes, you're expecting way too much.

Have you ever contemplated this remark by Bob Ryan?

Imagine a rotating sphere that is 8,000 miles in diameter, with a bumpy surface, surrounded by a 25-mile-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during parts of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases receives continually inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster.

-Robert T. Ryan

No crap.. The saints de coordinator is in to weather?

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Without models of some kind, we'd be back in 1960. And yes, you're expecting way too much.

Have you ever contemplated this remark by Bob Ryan?

Imagine a rotating sphere that is 8,000 miles in diameter, with a bumpy surface, surrounded by a 25-mile-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during parts of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases receives continually inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster.

-Robert T. Ryan

 

 

OKay fair enough.

 

But lets be honest, there has been no improvement in model accuracy in about 20 years. The Blizard of 96 was nailed from 6 days out. Today we can't get a storm a few days out right.

 

So maybe it isn't possible to make a more accurate model.....which IMO makes them pretty useless in nailing down specifics for storms only a couple of days out.

 

THey are good for general ideas. It might snow somewhere between Albany NY and Richmond Virginia. The idea is there. But the specifics?

 

NO ONE KNOWS.

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OKay fair enough.

But lets be honest, there has been no improvement in model accuracy in about 20 years. The Blizard of 96 was nailed from 6 days out. Today we can't get a storm a few days out right.

So maybe it isn't possible to make a more accurate model.....which IMO makes them pretty useless in nailing down specifics for storms only a couple of days out.

THey are good for general ideas. It might snow somewhere between Albany NY and Richmond Virginia. The idea is there. But the specifics?

NO ONE KNOWS.

The blizzard of 96 was likely a much more straightforward setup.

And lol @ thinking the models haven't improved in the last 20 years... from everything I've learned, they've improved immensely.

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OKay fair enough.

 

But lets be honest, there has been no improvement in model accuracy in about 20 years. The Blizard of 96 was nailed from 6 days out. Today we can't get a storm a few days out right.

 

So maybe it isn't possible to make a more accurate model.....which IMO makes them pretty useless in nailing down specifics for storms only a couple of days out.

 

THey are good for general ideas. It might snow somewhere between Albany NY and Richmond Virginia. The idea is there. But the specifics?

 

NO ONE KNOWS.

 

 

The huge storms of 09-10 were all forecast pretty far out. I remember the dicussions mostly focused on where the qpf bullseye was going to be. 

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