EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was at best cautiously optimistic. Last week f'd me up. Let's all just pray really hard that this isn't winters last hurrah because if we get skunked in this pattern it pretty much is. No, this definitely is not winter's last hurrah. We've still got the inevitable suppressed SE snow storm to get through yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I was at best cautiously optimistic. Last week f'd me up. Let's all just pray really hard that this isn't winters last hurrah because if we get skunked in this pattern it pretty much is. I hope it is. I hope we get a massive ridge in the east by mid-February with driving rainstorms that bring us severe weather and melt all of New England's snow. I hope we get our last freeze before March and torch more than we did in March 2012. I wouldn't mind an 80 degree day on Feb 20th... it would be kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I hope it is. I hope we get a massive ridge in the east by mid-February with driving rainstorms that being us severe weather and melt all of New England's snow. I hope we get our last freeze before March and torch more than we did in March 2012. I wouldn't mind an 80 degree day on Feb 20th... it would be kinda cool. It's like you are living in my head this morning. Preach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 dang, I was hoping to check out this snow plow tracker for this storm... any other counties have this? I just found it this moring. http://apps.harfordcountymd.gov/SnowPlowTracker HoCo: http://www.howardcountymd.gov/iframetemplate.aspx?id=4294969851 They had a plow tracker site since at least the 2003 bliz. I remember because my street was one of the few "unplowed" a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You guys are cute, putting your hopes and dreams into an 84h forecast and then melting down when it goes awry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Without models of some kind, we'd be back in 1960. And yes, you're expecting way too much. Have you ever contemplated this remark by Bob Ryan? Imagine a rotating sphere that is 8,000 miles in diameter, with a bumpy surface, surrounded by a 25-mile-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during parts of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases receives continually inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster. -Robert T. Ryan No crap.. The saints de coordinator is in to weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The wall was on the writing last night and it don't take a science rocket to figure it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I had to quote this one. There's upside mixed in there but too early to over analyze. Very few west tracks. I counted 3-4 or so. Today's 12z should hopefully seal the fate on not getting rain.I'm pretty stoked on this one so far. Like Phin said. Uncomplicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 1 ply and this winter are now on par for suckiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The wall was on the writing last night and it don't take a science rocket to figure it Thanks Chill Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd wait until late tonight to pull the plug guys Let's keep it to light selling of storm stock and not a fire sale. This isn't coming back south... time to take our 35 degree rain and LIKE it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Without models of some kind, we'd be back in 1960. And yes, you're expecting way too much. Have you ever contemplated this remark by Bob Ryan? Imagine a rotating sphere that is 8,000 miles in diameter, with a bumpy surface, surrounded by a 25-mile-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during parts of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases receives continually inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster. -Robert T. Ryan OKay fair enough. But lets be honest, there has been no improvement in model accuracy in about 20 years. The Blizard of 96 was nailed from 6 days out. Today we can't get a storm a few days out right. So maybe it isn't possible to make a more accurate model.....which IMO makes them pretty useless in nailing down specifics for storms only a couple of days out. THey are good for general ideas. It might snow somewhere between Albany NY and Richmond Virginia. The idea is there. But the specifics? NO ONE KNOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOL, uncomplicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OKay fair enough. But lets be honest, there has been no improvement in model accuracy in about 20 years. The Blizard of 96 was nailed from 6 days out. Today we can't get a storm a few days out right. So maybe it isn't possible to make a more accurate model.....which IMO makes them pretty useless in nailing down specifics for storms only a couple of days out. THey are good for general ideas. It might snow somewhere between Albany NY and Richmond Virginia. The idea is there. But the specifics? NO ONE KNOWS. The blizzard of 96 was likely a much more straightforward setup. And lol @ thinking the models haven't improved in the last 20 years... from everything I've learned, they've improved immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If the models wouldn't have looked good from the beginning this wouldn't be taking place. It's not like we lost actual snow, if it's not going to happen it never was regardless of what the models showed 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lot of dumb **** in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOL, uncomplicated. Well, it kinda was. Just that one of the pieces is way too far north and now we don't have a pseudo 50/50 block. Just means NE gets the uncomplicated 6-10 apparently. Which they won't even notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 OKay fair enough. But lets be honest, there has been no improvement in model accuracy in about 20 years. The Blizard of 96 was nailed from 6 days out. Today we can't get a storm a few days out right. So maybe it isn't possible to make a more accurate model.....which IMO makes them pretty useless in nailing down specifics for storms only a couple of days out. THey are good for general ideas. It might snow somewhere between Albany NY and Richmond Virginia. The idea is there. But the specifics? NO ONE KNOWS. The huge storms of 09-10 were all forecast pretty far out. I remember the dicussions mostly focused on where the qpf bullseye was going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If it's garbage day in your hood, get your empty Cans pulled in pronto. I don't want them travelling to my area and hitting my Car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 You guys are cute, putting your hopes and dreams into an 84h forecast and then melting down when it goes awry. Because we know how the end ends once the end begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The huge storms of 09-10 were all forecast pretty far out. I remember the dicussions mostly focused on where the qpf bullseye was going to be. Again, a much more straightforward setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I chuckled.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Almost time to cancel winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I want this storm to cut to Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Almost time to cancel winter Time for Sping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol A Bermuda high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Time for Sping? probably not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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