smokeybandit Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Super Bowl storms hoped deflated, just like the Patriots' balls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 When does the convection thread get started, warmth and thunderstorms sounds so good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Perfect. It kills me how we go from lots of digital snow to no snow in one model cycle. We don't even get a slight tap to help ease the pain first but a full up walnut punch True. Looking for some silver lining here. Really would like an early warm spring, but it may be just the opposite. Fyp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What a great weekend this was going to be. Super Bowl, cold snow followed by bitter cold. Now, naso much. Kinda fitting that when we decided that we couldn't have fun with the storm, the storm became no fun. Perhaps we will get a chance to redeem ourselves. I don't really care about the Super Bowl, but I was hoping that this storm would allow me to enjoy the game a lot more than I normally do. Whatever. I can't say that it's totally surprising, even if it is a shillelagh to the nethers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm ready for sunshine, warmth, flowers, and sneezing. This horrid winter can end any time now. EDIT: that is if the 12z runs don't improve for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What actually makes this worse is that we now can't enjoy any model solutions greater than 24 hours. Tracking is fun and we all expect the occasional fail but if everything is a fail then we are just a bunch of mentally insane weather weenies who continually ram our heads against a wall waiting for something that know won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 What actually makes this worse is that we now can't enjoy any model solutions greater than 24 hours. Tracking is fun and we all expect the occasional fail but if everything is a fail then we are just a bunch of mentally insane weather weenies who continually ram our heads against a wall waiting for something that know won't happenI couldn't of said it better. In reality, what is the point at even watching model runs outside of 24 hours. They are wrong 99% of the time. Anyone can take a wild guess at what the weather will be like in 3 days. It's a shame we have another 6 weeks of this crud. I can't wait for spring this year. I'm over cold dry/warm wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Would have been a cool storm. Models are TERRIBLE. Its pointless even looking at them. I still think this could shift further north or south. Models are just so bad that anything is on the table 12 hours from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 dang, I was hoping to check out this snow plow tracker for this storm... any other counties have this? I just found it this moring. http://apps.harfordcountymd.gov/SnowPlowTracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Would have been a cool storm. Models are TERRIBLE. Its pointless even looking at them. I still think this could shift further north or south. Models are just so bad that anything is on the table 12 hours from the event. To say that models are terrible is ignorant to the extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 To say that models are terrible is ignorant to the extreme. .They are terrible. Total junk. Worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Only model I trust is the FIM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 .They are terrible. Total junk. Worthless. So then should forecasters disregard them entirely? How would they have predicted Sandy and just about every hurricane that has made landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I know models are supposed to go in the other thread but this is barely a model so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 To say that models are terrible is ignorant to the extreme. I agree, but going from a 6-10" event to all rain within a few days is pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I agree, but going from a 6-10" event to all rain within a few days is pretty awful. Pretty sure going from a 4-8" slider off the Mid-Atlantic coast to a 24-36" New England snow bomb is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I agree, but going from a 6-10" event to all rain within a few days is pretty awful. Yep, totally agree. Hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pretty sure going from a 4-8" slider off the Mid-Atlantic coast to a 24-36" New England snow bomb is worse. I understand the use of models, but the seasonal trend this year of completely different runs (that manage to always screw us over) makes this even a worse hobby then usual this year. Back to being positive, all hail the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This one stings a bit more than the miller A fail because we could see that was a bad set up. It also stings more than the miller b fail because there was only 1 one run of the euro that ever gave us coastal love. We had a nice solid consensus yesterday of UKMET/GGEM/GFS/EURO/NAM that fell apart in one cycle. Hahahaha oh well we suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 It must be nice to live in a place where models regularly bust 72 hr forecasts in favor of giving you huge snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 So then should forecasters disregard them entirely? How would they have predicted Sandy and just about every hurricane that has made landfall? Of course they are good reference on potential events. Obviously. But this is 2015 not 1960. I would think we could have the technology that yields better performance results at this point. Maybe that is expecting too much? But when you have a model doing numerous 300 mile shifts with storms within a couple days of the event. To me that is unaccetable in 2015. To me that makes them TERRIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 sine.png should've ended your sine-curve one division to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 IF there has ever been a worse 11-day period here than the one we've had, then I'm damn happy I've forgotten it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 should've ended your sine-curve one division to the left. I am optimistic 12z runs will have us heading back to positive peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Of course they are good reference on potential events. Obviously. But this is 2015 not 1960. I would think we could have the technology that yields better performance results at this point. Maybe that is expecting too much? But when you have a model doing numerous 300 mile shifts with storms within a couple days of the event. To me that is unaccetable in 2015. To me that makes them TERRIBLE. Without models of some kind, we'd be back in 1960. And yes, you're expecting way too much.Have you ever contemplated this remark by Bob Ryan? Imagine a rotating sphere that is 8,000 miles in diameter, with a bumpy surface, surrounded by a 25-mile-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during parts of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases receives continually inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster. -Robert T. Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm ready for sunshine, warmth, flowers, and sneezing. This horrid winter can end any time now. EDIT: that is if the 12z runs don't improve for us Pretty much. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 How I felt when seeing the 00z runs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIaFtAKnqBU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Pretty much. This. Also ready to punt this winter...enough is enough. Of course the next time a model shows any snow I'm back in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Without models of some kind, we'd be back in 1960. And yes, you're expecting way too much. Have you ever contemplated this remark by Bob Ryan? Imagine a rotating sphere that is 8,000 miles in diameter, with a bumpy surface, surrounded by a 25-mile-deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time, and heated, along with its surrounding gases, by a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away. Imagine also that this sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor and that some locations are heated more during parts of the revolution. And imagine that this mixture of gases receives continually inputs from the surface below, generally calmly but sometimes through violent and highly localized injections. Then, imagine that after watching the gaseous mixture you are expected to predict its state at one location on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered day by day by a weather forecaster. -Robert T. Ryan This. Models are pretty amazing when you understand how and what goes into initializing a run and how minor pertubations affect the outcome. Then see how close they are accurately based on a global scale. People who say "models suck" are just ignorant to how they function. Ironically this mentality usually occurs when they don't get snow....otherwise models are F'ing great when they get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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