Inudaw Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Was thinking the exact same thing...crazy consistent, though this may be the best yet. 14-16", would be so sweet Are you working leading up to this storm? Does not really matter. Currently a met in Degree only. Got my Red Tag because of my Degree... landing a job in the field is a completely different ball parik. But yes I work tomorrow at my current job.... ANyway back on topic. For those in Williamsburg... This run was actually "wetter" for that area in comparison to the 18z run. There will be a a sharp cut off between the light/moderate snow on the north and west side.. to the really high impacted areas just to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The sref is another big hit This map will NEVER make it to the Southeastern forum. Thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM mos qpf 0mi Charlottesville 0.23 78mi Richmond(Airport) 0.35 108mi West Point 0.44 121mi Williamsburg 0.79 138mi Newport News 1.0 160mi Norfolk 1.4 178mi Va Beach 1.5 I'd say that's a pretty tight gradient esp looking between West point and Newport News ~35-40 miles as the crow flies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Even the GFS is catching on...it puts much of the seven cities in the .5-.75 band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 4km NAM brings some mixing into Va. Beach at least. First time I've seen that, could cut back on totals. Looking like Newport News/Hampton back down through Suffolk and interior NE NC could be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Now even the GFS catches on, snowfall looks like the nam - 40% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 2-5" for RIC metro? Hopefully the northern fringe over performs like it did with todays storm in HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 FWIW - Jon Cash going 8-12 for south side. His he still forecasting? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 6z Nam.. SE Va/NC gets slammed again.. Only difference... it throws the north west side a bone and expands heavier amounts further west this run.Gets Richmond into the heavier rates for a time....... ~0.65" liquid equivalent back to Richmond Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winteraddict Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If traveling would Virginia Beach Oceanfront area be good for 7+ Snow? or would west of there be a lot better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If traveling would Virginia Beach Oceanfront area be good for 7+ Snow? or would west of there be a lot better? I would say west of the oceanfront, but around Virginia beach town center I would think would be a great position to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 You'd normally want to be off the water front.. per haps a bit more inland from the beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Just woke up and saw the 6z 4k NAM. I am just going to leave this here for posterity. Probably overdone, but it would be nice to see HR and RIC both getting crushed. BTW, 4k NAM did a great job on our 2-3" event yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hi-res look at QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 GFS continue to trend wetter as well. Great hit for most of the tidewater regions... gets Richmond to between 0.4 and 0.5 Looking good for the areas that the Nam has been hitting all along... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Yes, good trends this time around. Looks like Richmond will be getting in on the action as well as every model seems to be expanding the precip shield northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wakefield's messages: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015MECKLENBURG-LUNENBURG-BRUNSWICK-DINWIDDIE-PRINCE GEORGE-GREENSVILLE-SUSSEX-SURRY-JAMES CITY-YORK-SOUTHAMPTON-ISLE OF WIGHT-NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH HILL...LAWRENCEVILLE...PETERSBURG...HOPEWELL...EMPORIA...WAKEFIELD...WILLIAMSBURG...POQUOSON...FRANKLIN...NEWPORT NEWS...HAMPTON430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PMEST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* LOCATIONS: SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.* HAZARDS: MAINLY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 7 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.* TIMING: SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING THEN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW AND BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. NORTHAMPTON NC-HERTFORD-GATES-NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH-SUFFOLK- CHESAPEAKE-VIRGINIA BEACH-NORTHAMPTON VA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARGARETTSVILLE...AHOSKIE...EASTVILLE 430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS: FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. A LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN 0.1 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH CAROLINA. * TIMING: SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...ARRIVES BY THIS EVENING THEN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW AND BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD... PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY 430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 3 INCHES. * TEMPERATURES: MID TO UPPER 20S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY MORNING PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015VAZ048-049-062>064-074>077-251730-/O.NEW.KAKQ.WW.Y.0006.150226T0300Z-150226T1800Z/FLUVANNA-LOUISA-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...GOOCHLAND...ASHLAND...TAPPAHANNOCK430 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO1 PM EST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THISEVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY.* AREAS AFFECTED: PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.* HAZARDS: SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 3 INCHES.*HEAVENER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC403 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015VAZ025-036-037-508-251715-/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.150226T0200Z-150226T1500Z/AUGUSTA-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...CHARLOTTESVILLE...WINTERGREEN403 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO10 AM EST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. ST. MARYS-ORANGE-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ST MARYS CITY...FREDERICKSBURG 403 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MARYLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES. * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Weird forecast from AKQ introducing rain/snow tonight for all of us. I haven't seen any evidence to suggest we start as rain. Sure we might transition to sleet for a period before the low pulls away, but starting off as rain? Come on now get it together AKQ. I would love to hear their reasoning for this because there is none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Storm looks great, H5 currently closed off and SLP already down to 1008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VABILLUPS1 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 This thing is trending wetter but warmer. I'm really starting to wonder if the totals might get cut a bit, at least for Va. Beach, Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z nam is a tick warmer for extreme.. NC/VA boarder near VB this run...But huge hit for the area even back to Richmond..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Looking good, heading down tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 12z nam is a tick warmer for extreme.. NC/VA boarder near VB this run... But huge hit for the area even back to Richmond..... Yea, seems to be 25 miles or so NW which is causing that 850 line to move up into southside near the end of the heaviest precip....I'm sure the clown maps will be pretty, but hoping it doesn't pan out that way exactly. It is still on the NW side of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM advertising some sleet in the AM. We almost always go over to a period of sleet in our big storms. Christmas 2010 storm is a prime example and we know how that ended. A blend of all the models argues against a period of sleet, but if it does it happen, it will probably be brief and at the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 NAM advertising some sleet in the AM. We almost always go over to a period of sleet in our big storms. Christmas 2010 storm is a prime example and we know how that ended. A blend of all the models argues against a period of sleet, but if it does it happen, it will probably be brief and at the end of the storm. True...the sleet was really at the tail end when the precip lightened up....wouldn't complain about those totals again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Regular NAM precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I am just going to ride the 4k NAM and RGEM to victory as they seem to have been doing a great job within 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I am just going to ride the 4k NAM and RGEM to victory as they seem to have been doing a great job within 24hrs. What do the latest runs of RGEM show? Not sure I've seen anything since 18Z run yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 What do the latest runs of RGEM show? Not sure I've seen anything since 18Z run yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It is half the NAM totals, but it too has been awfully consistent with its bullseye on Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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