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NOT DC/NOVA discussion


JMU2004

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soo who's going to be the first news cast to cut down the totals.. looks like some moisture is being robbed by all the energy/ storms down there..

I'm not too worried yet. The energy transfer to the coastal is underway. A lot of models picked up on a gap in heavier precip. This has been the concern for those north and west for a while now. A lot of short range models have shown a sizeable dry slot over the past few runs setting up in the Shenandoah Valley area.

All that said, I always though 6-8 was a good goal for us. I hope I'm wrong and we're ripping dendrites at 2AM :)

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This image captures what we need to happen for double digits. In the wee hours of the morning, notice how the orientation of the precip field changes from west-east to more SW-NE. This is the low off the coast doing its thing. This is when we should really cash in. On the other hand, I could just stop worrying about it and enjoy our first legit storm in five years haha

post-2926-0-39458400-1424137530_thumb.jp

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3.5" at 9pm. Looks amazing outside.

For fun I've been using the 22Z HRRR as a reference point. (That's the first model run in which it started snowing for us in real time) That model had RIC at 3" at 9pm, so I think we're still on track. It also had RIC getting to 10" when all was set and done.

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Well, there were a few burst in downtown RVA on Broad that looked more like dendrites...now back to a heavy powder.

 

Looking at the radar, everyone's saying that all is going to planned, but that big dry slot over Charlottesville inching ever so closely to RVA is starting to make me freak out a little.

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