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NOT DC/NOVA discussion


JMU2004

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This may be the weenie in me talking but I wouldn't worry too much about the NAM. It's been all over the place with whacky solutions and thermal profiles. Even Wes on the radio show said that it was sort of a crummy model.

 

12z GFS and RGEM look pretty good for the metro area. Anywhere from 2-2.5" QPF. 850 line approaches PTB but then backs off on both models. Not sure if there is a warm nose somewhere else though.

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RGEM accumulation is why Richmond needs its own board: from 24 inches or so in west end of city/bon air/midlo/short pump....to maybe 8 or 9 inches in the Tri-Cities. This is going to be close

I strongly agree with this as I rarely make any posts here essentially because most discussions center on DC, MD and points north in the "Mid-Atlantic" section.

Snow report: 1 inch as of 11:45 am, Bellevue, northside of Richmond, VA.

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I'm not far from you, I'm in the West End by UR/St. Chris

 

What are your thoughts on how long we can keep the snow in here? And I'm interested in thoughts on tomorrow too. That could be a lot of fun because we won't have to worry about any mixing then.

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Right now I think we got through tomorrow evening for precip. Obviously all snow much more likely north and west of the city with the evil mix affecting areas south and east. ;-)

 

 

I'm not far from you, I'm in the West End by UR/St. Chris

 

What are your thoughts on how long we can keep the snow in here? And I'm interested in thoughts on tomorrow too. That could be a lot of fun because we won't have to worry about any mixing then.

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thanks man

9:40 snow started 25f

10:40 0.4" 25f

11:40 0.9" 24f 6 hr. board total 1.3"

12:40 2.0" 26f 6 hr. board total 2.4"

1:40 0.5" 26f 6 hr. board total 3.0"

hourly 3.8"

Yeah, this light stuff doesn't pile up very fast. I wonder if we'll get any that stays consistently heavy for an extended period?

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Id agree a tad over 3 inches in my part of glen Allen.. Hopefully we can avoid the first dry spot that is west of the area right now we look to be in a good spot

I think we'll be good on this front end stuff. Check out this beautiful loop:

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif

 

Moisture streaming up from the Atlantic. Transfer will be underway shortly. The question here is whether or not we get under the death band tomorrow morning. All of the models have it in the general vicinity of RIC but the meso models are a tad warmer than the globals.

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Man that radar is sweet. Wonder if we can put up 6-8 inches by like 9 or 10? Seems doable. Tomorrow will definitely tell the tale as to whether or not this becomes historic, and really by that I mean the 33 year drought at RIC finally comes to an end!

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What an impressive storm! Glad to see most everyone is cashing in, even those in the SEVA/HR/ESVA right now. Hard to fathom that I am sitting here at 25.2 F with heavy, dry powder falling and 5-6 hrs from now its supposed to be raining with surf temps rocketing. Short range models still very persistent with the nwd prog of the 850 0c line.

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