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NOT DC/NOVA discussion


JMU2004

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Unfortunately many of us have migrated away from the boards over the years. For the most part we've landed in a Facebook group/chat that is very active. PM me if you live in the area and want details.

Would also like this info, but can't send you a pm.

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Euro just destroyed Richmond. Just heard it shows 32 inches in the city. Now the biggest 24-hour snowfall in Richmond history is 21 inches I believe, so every grain of salt here. BUT, south trend a good one for us. I personally would rather sweat 10 inches of fluff vs 15 inches than the usual rain/snow line. Long ways to go still.

 

Would also like this info, but can't send you a pm.

 

I would also like the facebook info. Powhatan County here.

 

Here

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/530029833777967/?ref=bookmarks

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The cutoff in snow to the SE makes me want to vomit. :axe:

Definitely going to be a major cut off somewhere. ..I really see it being a sleet fest for hours in some places... Looks like the precipitation won't hit most of the Richmond area until mid afternoon on Friday..I'd say the later this moves in the more likely we are to mix, of course the final track is going to matter most..
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Well, as a complete amateur I'd say this is a spot-on classic Richmond metro event: That is to say, 10,20,30 miles could make a world of difference between a lot of snow, a lot of sleet, and even some serious freezing rain. I think you'd ideally want to be above the fall line for this one, and I think we can go ahead and forget the chances of an historic all-timer here. But it does look like a good 6-12 inch storm shaping up, at least. And we don't get a lot of those. Anyone see anything different? Thoughts?

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Well, as a complete amateur I'd say this is a spot-on classic Richmond metro event: That is to say, 10,20,30 miles could make a world of difference between a lot of snow, a lot of sleet, and even some serious freezing rain. I think you'd ideally want to be above the fall line for this one, and I think we can go ahead and forget the chances of an historic all-timer here. But it does look like a good 6-12 inch storm shaping up, at least. And we don't get a lot of those. Anyone see anything different? Thoughts?

I pretty much agree. I think this is a case where the west end of henrico/Hanover/Powhatan see near a foot or more and the airport record maybe 6 inches.

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Well, as a complete amateur I'd say this is a spot-on classic Richmond metro event: That is to say, 10,20,30 miles could make a world of difference between a lot of snow, a lot of sleet, and even some serious freezing rain. I think you'd ideally want to be above the fall line for this one, and I think we can go ahead and forget the chances of an historic all-timer here. But it does look like a good 6-12 inch storm shaping up, at least. And we don't get a lot of those. Anyone see anything different? Thoughts?

 

Yes a classic RVA snowstorm. The past few years its been sleet or dry slot or both messing things up. If RIC is ever gonna break that 12" barrier again this storm has got to be it. The 18z GFS shows how we can do it but still the sleet gets close. GFS has trended colder for us the past day, hopefully it continues. 

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I so want to believe!  I can't help but be jaded given our overpromised and under delivered past.  I just keep picturing Capt. Kirk in Star Trek VI The Undiscovered Country (or the apology) when he is talking about the Klingons to Spock "Don't trust them...don't believe them" when I look at the models.

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You guys in RIC are going to clean up, no doubt. 

Euro para clown shows 30-36"in RIC metro and 4-12" in HR. The 4-12" totals in HR are optimistic as we will taint with rain just a matter of when and how much.

 

If I had to make a forecast, 1-2ft in RIC metro and 2-4" in HR. Huge cutoff but seems quite likely at this point.

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So, out of curiosity, did I miss something earlier this evening? Several of the weather sites online that were previously forecasting 8-12" for Richmond with the snow lasting through most of Saturday, have now backed off quite a bit, and are only calling for 5-8", most of which according to them, comes on Friday, only followed by snow showers or flurries on Saturday? Was there a bad run that freaked the forecasters out or something? I mean, they usually play it safe, so I'd see it as more likely to forecast less snow here than more.

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You guys in RIC are going to clean up, no doubt.

Euro para clown shows 30-36"in RIC metro and 4-12" in HR. The 4-12" totals in HR are optimistic as we will taint with rain just a matter of when and how much.

If I had to make a forecast, 1-2ft in RIC metro and 2-4" in HR. Huge cutoff but seems quite likely at this point.

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You guys in RIC are going to clean up, no doubt.

Euro para clown shows 30-36"in RIC metro and 4-12" in HR. The 4-12" totals in HR are optimistic as we will taint with rain just a matter of when and how much.

If I had to make a forecast, 1-2ft in RIC metro and 2-4" in HR. Huge cutoff but seems quite likely at this point.

Looks like the SREF Plumes are looking better for HR at least. Showing mean around 5-6" for ORF

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So, out of curiosity, did I miss something earlier this evening? Several of the weather sites online that were previously forecasting 8-12" for Richmond with the snow lasting through most of Saturday, have now backed off quite a bit, and are only calling for 5-8", most of which according to them, comes on Friday, only followed by snow showers or flurries on Saturday? Was there a bad run that freaked the forecasters out or something? I mean, they usually play it safe, so I'd see it as more likely to forecast less snow here than more.

I think, or at least Jim Duncan, is going on history here over models.  His experience is that there will be mixing and there will be a dry slot.  The GFS did put a dry slot right along the I95 corridor but still gives us a monster dumping.  Still 36 hours for them to fine tune and assume they rather start on the low end and adjust up...maybe they have just been burned too many times forecasting the BIG ONE.

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It is quite good to see those three images showing the Richmond TV station's snow total forecasts because none are the same. Nor did they simply regurgitate the NWS forecast of 6-12 inches across the area. Each developed their own forecasts for their own reasons and analysis. Kudos to all regardless of which turns out the best for this particular storm.

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