MidlothianWX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Unfortunately many of us have migrated away from the boards over the years. For the most part we've landed in a Facebook group/chat that is very active. PM me if you live in the area and want details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Unfortunately many of us have migrated away from the boards over the years. For the most part we've landed in a Facebook group/chat that is very active. PM me if you live in the area and want details. Would be interested but it says you can't receive messages. And I don't facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thanks the other Midlo, I retired Facebook as well although I did enjoy the group during a winter storm. Understand why you moved with the Mid-Atlantic forum being pretty much centered around DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corriewf Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Unfortunately many of us have migrated away from the boards over the years. For the most part we've landed in a Facebook group/chat that is very active. PM me if you live in the area and want details. Would also like this info, but can't send you a pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feb11th1983 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I would also like the facebook info. Powhatan County here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro just destroyed Richmond. Just heard it shows 32 inches in the city. Now the biggest 24-hour snowfall in Richmond history is 21 inches I believe, so every grain of salt here. BUT, south trend a good one for us. I personally would rather sweat 10 inches of fluff vs 15 inches than the usual rain/snow line. Long ways to go still. Would also like this info, but can't send you a pm. I would also like the facebook info. Powhatan County here. Here https://www.facebook.com/groups/530029833777967/?ref=bookmarks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The cutoff in snow to the SE makes me want to vomit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The cutoff in snow to the SE makes me want to vomit. Definitely going to be a major cut off somewhere. ..I really see it being a sleet fest for hours in some places... Looks like the precipitation won't hit most of the Richmond area until mid afternoon on Friday..I'd say the later this moves in the more likely we are to mix, of course the final track is going to matter most.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coldrain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The cutoff in snow to the SE makes me want to vomit. Agreed. The lines on every model run are unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, as a complete amateur I'd say this is a spot-on classic Richmond metro event: That is to say, 10,20,30 miles could make a world of difference between a lot of snow, a lot of sleet, and even some serious freezing rain. I think you'd ideally want to be above the fall line for this one, and I think we can go ahead and forget the chances of an historic all-timer here. But it does look like a good 6-12 inch storm shaping up, at least. And we don't get a lot of those. Anyone see anything different? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, as a complete amateur I'd say this is a spot-on classic Richmond metro event: That is to say, 10,20,30 miles could make a world of difference between a lot of snow, a lot of sleet, and even some serious freezing rain. I think you'd ideally want to be above the fall line for this one, and I think we can go ahead and forget the chances of an historic all-timer here. But it does look like a good 6-12 inch storm shaping up, at least. And we don't get a lot of those. Anyone see anything different? Thoughts? I pretty much agree. I think this is a case where the west end of henrico/Hanover/Powhatan see near a foot or more and the airport record maybe 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The cutoff in snow to the SE makes me want to vomit. For real. Unfortunately the Hampton roads area should flip to rain for an extended period of time no matter how much we get. 8" is just going to be adding insult to injury if it just gets washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So, that is just to 12AM on Saturday Morning...meaning that is only what is falling on Friday...I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, as a complete amateur I'd say this is a spot-on classic Richmond metro event: That is to say, 10,20,30 miles could make a world of difference between a lot of snow, a lot of sleet, and even some serious freezing rain. I think you'd ideally want to be above the fall line for this one, and I think we can go ahead and forget the chances of an historic all-timer here. But it does look like a good 6-12 inch storm shaping up, at least. And we don't get a lot of those. Anyone see anything different? Thoughts? Yes a classic RVA snowstorm. The past few years its been sleet or dry slot or both messing things up. If RIC is ever gonna break that 12" barrier again this storm has got to be it. The 18z GFS shows how we can do it but still the sleet gets close. GFS has trended colder for us the past day, hopefully it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS looks to get that 24" purple tail into RVA...crushes the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think it's really all about missing that dry slot. That's the wild card that could thwart the quest to break the foot of snow drought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes, NWS mentioned in their discussion the dreaded dry slot setting it sites on I95...they won't wager a guess on Saturday accumulation until they get a better idea on that dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 1/20 00z EURO parallel crushes Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I so want to believe! I can't help but be jaded given our overpromised and under delivered past. I just keep picturing Capt. Kirk in Star Trek VI The Undiscovered Country (or the apology) when he is talking about the Klingons to Spock "Don't trust them...don't believe them" when I look at the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You guys in RIC are going to clean up, no doubt. Euro para clown shows 30-36"in RIC metro and 4-12" in HR. The 4-12" totals in HR are optimistic as we will taint with rain just a matter of when and how much. If I had to make a forecast, 1-2ft in RIC metro and 2-4" in HR. Huge cutoff but seems quite likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So, out of curiosity, did I miss something earlier this evening? Several of the weather sites online that were previously forecasting 8-12" for Richmond with the snow lasting through most of Saturday, have now backed off quite a bit, and are only calling for 5-8", most of which according to them, comes on Friday, only followed by snow showers or flurries on Saturday? Was there a bad run that freaked the forecasters out or something? I mean, they usually play it safe, so I'd see it as more likely to forecast less snow here than more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Glad you guys are involved in this one. Basically the entire state will be covered in snow. Now if we could just get some into VB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You guys in RIC are going to clean up, no doubt. Euro para clown shows 30-36"in RIC metro and 4-12" in HR. The 4-12" totals in HR are optimistic as we will taint with rain just a matter of when and how much. If I had to make a forecast, 1-2ft in RIC metro and 2-4" in HR. Huge cutoff but seems quite likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You guys in RIC are going to clean up, no doubt. Euro para clown shows 30-36"in RIC metro and 4-12" in HR. The 4-12" totals in HR are optimistic as we will taint with rain just a matter of when and how much. If I had to make a forecast, 1-2ft in RIC metro and 2-4" in HR. Huge cutoff but seems quite likely at this point. Looks like the SREF Plumes are looking better for HR at least. Showing mean around 5-6" for ORF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB Fins Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So, out of curiosity, did I miss something earlier this evening? Several of the weather sites online that were previously forecasting 8-12" for Richmond with the snow lasting through most of Saturday, have now backed off quite a bit, and are only calling for 5-8", most of which according to them, comes on Friday, only followed by snow showers or flurries on Saturday? Was there a bad run that freaked the forecasters out or something? I mean, they usually play it safe, so I'd see it as more likely to forecast less snow here than more. I think, or at least Jim Duncan, is going on history here over models. His experience is that there will be mixing and there will be a dry slot. The GFS did put a dry slot right along the I95 corridor but still gives us a monster dumping. Still 36 hours for them to fine tune and assume they rather start on the low end and adjust up...maybe they have just been burned too many times forecasting the BIG ONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well, apparently the NAM jogged north and is hugging the coast, which really cuts into RIC totals. Hopefully this isn't the beginning of a trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Here are the Richmond TV stations forecasts. Take your pick. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dswx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It is quite good to see those three images showing the Richmond TV station's snow total forecasts because none are the same. Nor did they simply regurgitate the NWS forecast of 6-12 inches across the area. Each developed their own forecasts for their own reasons and analysis. Kudos to all regardless of which turns out the best for this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeeng92 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Monster hit on the EURO for RVA. 18+ from Williamsburg west. Impressive winds too. The main difference I'm seeing from the GFS and EURO tonight is that the GFS brings warm 850's further west. 850s on the GFS get to 0 near the U of R area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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