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NOT DC/NOVA discussion


JMU2004

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These rain to snow scenarios are always tough in this area. Seen them bust low many times. That being said rates should be intense for a few hours after the changeover with temps dropping into the 20s. I could see 3-5 north of RIC metro, 2-4 in town, and 1-3 south towards Petersburg

 

 

Probably what AKQ is so hesitant about this storm...     I don't think anyone is currently real confident in this scenario.    Despite the continued better better (used that... relative to what a few days ago was showing) its hard to go more than 3" in this kind of scenario of rain to sleet to snow......    But yes North of Richmond looks great.... bunch of question marks south and east of there.     How much rain.. how much sleet..   how much... snow depends on the speed of the progression of the cold air that is going to pressing in during the event.

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Great post. I agree, these are tough calls around here. I mean this could very easily end up being a storm that drops 5 inches in Short Pump and 1 inch in Petersburg. Going to be fascinating (nerve wracking?) watching the snow progress into the region tomorrow. Seems like Wakefield going very, very conservative.

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In general, I think the model trends have been pretty positive today for RIC. The GFS definitely backed off on the precip max idea for SEVA though.

 

I think 2-4" is a decent call for RIC. I'll stick with that as the last time I called 2-4, I ended up with 6... :snowing:

 

Wouldn't be shocked to see a sleet fest though.

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Not sure what to think. Looking at the obs thread, it looks like the DC/NOVA crowd is changing over faster than expected. That said, the HRRR is adamant that we will not change over to all snow until 5PM or so. Still think 2-4 is reasonable for RIC, falling on top of a epic layer of sleet.

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Not sure what to think. Looking at the obs thread, it looks like the DC/NOVA crowd is changing over faster than expected. That said, the HRRR is adamant that we will not change over to all snow until 5PM or so. Still think 2-4 is reasonable for RIC, falling on top of a epic layer of sleet.

 

HRRR also had us getting 18-24" plus for the last storm, lol.

I wouldn't even look at it.

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ORF airport now reporting snow at 3pm.  Is it me or has that station been reporting colder than normal this year.  Seems like in years past it would always be a couple degrees warmer than surrounding cities.  Maybe chalk it up to the colder waters of the bay.

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ORF airport now reporting snow at 3pm.  Is it me or has that station been reporting colder than normal this year.  Seems like in years past it would always be a couple degrees warmer than surrounding cities.  Maybe chalk it up to the colder waters of the bay.

 

LOL, looks like they don't know the difference between light mist and light snow.

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