rmcwahoo Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow, this has really trended incredibly well for Richmond. Knock on wood but this could be quite the storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Folks down here are not used to being on the "north" side of a storm during +AO, +NAO phases. While you have often been burned by the north trend, this is often how it goes. You may notice temperatures and dews are higher than modeled, which is frequently the case in these situations. The sharp snow/no snow gradients that are modeled due to dry air often do not verify in this type of climo regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 ORF down to 37/18, another 2 degree drop in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Haven't been reading the other threads so this may have been addressed already but the earlier NWS disco says that they are throwing out the NAM and SREF runs and blending the ECMWF and GFS solutions. I can see maybe weighing them less due to their close range biases towards amping up the qpf but we are talking 0.4 vs 1.1 (imby). Completely toss the 1.1? Also WPC map updated to expand the 4-6 area north quite a bit and reduced the 6-8 in area quite a bit, making a broader area of moderate snow while reducing the heavier stuff in the earlier favored areas. Is that just nowcasting or is it in response to something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Here is WRIC TV 8's forcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP at 18 is like the NAM at 84, but still pretty incredible to see. Realistically though, probably should cut that in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 As far as snow bullseyes go, it looks like the following to me: NAM, Euro, and to a lesser extent Hi-res NAM favor Peninsula to Williamsburg over southside GFS, RGEM, CMC, HRRR, RAP seem to favor southside or more equally distribute snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The radar down south reminds me of what December 2009 looked like the day before the storm.... very, very juiced up. I don't know if these crazy 18"+ totals will verify, but I wouldn't be surprised if a couple of you ended up with over a foot. Enjoy this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WAVY going 3-6 for the southside. So we got that and then we have short range models going from 10-20. What a clusterf**k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I think multiple people called him out on the comment. Not to mention, who cares. I think most would expect nothing less from Ji, that's the dynamics of the board, I'm sure you know this Snow is an IMBY sport. I really doubt anyone in RIC is excited when Raleigh gets a foot and they get a dusting. At least when you miss out on snow that goes north it sorta feels like that's just how it's supposed to be. Again it does seem to make sense to not have DC and Ric folks in the same analysis spot all the time as we are each looking for different things.. But I'd still say over the years the southern crew has decided not to hang with the northern crew rather than the other way around. No need to be personal about it.. We all want jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Snow is an IMBY sport. I really doubt anyone in RIC is excited when Raleigh gets a foot and they get a dusting. At least when you miss out on snow that goes north it sorta feels like that's just how it's supposed to be. Again it does seem to make sense to not have DC and Ric folks in the same analysis spot all the time as we are each looking for different things.. But I'd still say over the years the southern crew has decided not to hang with the northern crew rather than the other way around. No need to be personal about it.. We all want jackpot. Agreed, I'm in between the two but also work in Richmond so I read both. I have seen my fair share of misses to the north and to the south. I've spent many storms saying F those guys in either direction. Others frustration doesn't get to me because I know I would be the same way. It's the nature of the hobby I refuse to take it personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Snow is an IMBY sport. I really doubt anyone in RIC is excited when Raleigh gets a foot and they get a dusting. At least when you miss out on snow that goes north it sorta feels like that's just how it's supposed to be. Again it does seem to make sense to not have DC and Ric folks in the same analysis spot all the time as we are each looking for different things.. But I'd still say over the years the southern crew has decided not to hang with the northern crew rather than the other way around. No need to be personal about it.. We all want jackpot. When I'm jackpotting at the expense of Raleigh, I don't do touchdown dances about in their forum. When they're jackpotting instead of me, I don't b**ch, moan, and whine about it incessantly like happens in the DC thread. There is a core clique that frequents the "Mid-Atlantic" forum on this board that loses its mind if they're not the jackpot of every storm all winter long. That same clique seems to want the title of the regional sub-forum to be DC/Balt and not "Mid-Atlantic." Accordingly, when someone from outside that region asks about their location, they're generally dismissed and made fun of. Period. Full Stop. If you want the ****ing region to be "DC/Balt" then change the god-damn name. John may write the checks, but you guys basically run the place and don't act like you don't. I've been around long enough to know how it operates. Don't call yourselves mid-atlantic and tell everyone south and west of Winchester to Fredericksburg to "**** off" and then act surprised when you're called out for being a dick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 When I'm jackpotting at the expense of Raleigh, I don't do touchdown dances about in their forum. When they're jackpotting instead of me, I don't b**ch, moan, and whine about it incessantly like happens in the DC thread. There is a core clique that frequents the "Mid-Atlantic" forum on this board that loses its mind if they're not the jackpot of every storm all winter long. That same clique seems to want the title of the regional sub-forum to be DC/Balt and not "Mid-Atlantic." Accordingly, when someone from outside that region asks about their location, they're generally dismissed and made fun of. Period. Full Stop. If you want the ****ing region to be "DC/Balt" then change the god-damn name. John may write the checks, but you guys basically run the place and don't act like you don't. I've been around long enough to know how it operates. Don't call yourselves mid-atlantic and tell everyone south and west of Winchester to Fredericksburg to "**** off" and then act surprised when you're called out for being a dick. you seem to take this stuff far too personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 When I'm jackpotting at the expense of Raleigh, I don't do touchdown dances about in their forum. When they're jackpotting instead of me, I don't b**ch, moan, and whine about it incessantly like happens in the DC thread. There is a core clique that frequents the "Mid-Atlantic" forum on this board that loses its mind if they're not the jackpot of every storm all winter long. That same clique seems to want the title of the regional sub-forum to be DC/Balt and not "Mid-Atlantic." Accordingly, when someone from outside that region asks about their location, they're generally dismissed and made fun of. Period. Full Stop. If you want the ****ing region to be "DC/Balt" then change the god-damn name. John may write the checks, but you guys basically run the place and don't act like you don't. I've been around long enough to know how it operates. Don't call yourselves mid-atlantic and tell everyone south and west of Winchester to Fredericksburg to "**** off" and then act surprised when you're called out for being a dick. Let it go. Of course there is a core group. To be honest 90% of the model discussion comes from them and I appreciate it because I know nothin! It stinks that they often leave out RIC & south even when we're affected but I can extrapolate most of the time. Not sure why getting snow has to be a MBY kinda thing when they say they just love to track it but it is what it is. Try not to let it get under your skin. ENJOY YOUR SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 When I'm jackpotting at the expense of Raleigh, I don't do touchdown dances about in their forum. When they're jackpotting instead of me, I don't b**ch, moan, and whine about it incessantly like happens in the DC thread. There is a core clique that frequents the "Mid-Atlantic" forum on this board that loses its mind if they're not the jackpot of every storm all winter long. That same clique seems to want the title of the regional sub-forum to be DC/Balt and not "Mid-Atlantic." Accordingly, when someone from outside that region asks about their location, they're generally dismissed and made fun of. Period. Full Stop. If you want the ****ing region to be "DC/Balt" then change the god-damn name. John may write the checks, but you guys basically run the place and don't act like you don't. I've been around long enough to know how it operates. Don't call yourselves mid-atlantic and tell everyone south and west of Winchester to Fredericksburg to "**** off" and then act surprised when you're called out for being a dick. I haven't seen any real hostility against the Richmond crew... sometimes there's a bit of ribbing but it's all in good fun. Same if any of you from southern VA root against, say, Maryland. I wouldn't take it personally. No need to be so butthurt. Enjoy the snow, this storm is yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Nice to see that RAH and AKQ are in solid agreement on this, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 you seem to take this stuff far too personally. Yeh, I am angry. I take it real personally, etc. that's why I post like 5 times a year these days. I've posted recently a couple times to call out a few contributors who are particularly egregious offenders. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 I would post more about roa/ric/orf but I don't know enough about the climo/setups to add much value. All I would do is regurgitate model output. Things are different down your way than they are in my yard. I totally understand how to read through models and add some spice for nova/central-n md. But I'm a one trick pony. With that being said, I hope ric gets punched in the face with piles of snow. I went higher in ric than dca in the seasonal contest thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Ps. I like Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 When I'm jackpotting at the expense of Raleigh, I don't do touchdown dances about in their forum. When they're jackpotting instead of me, I don't b**ch, moan, and whine about it incessantly like happens in the DC thread. There is a core clique that frequents the "Mid-Atlantic" forum on this board that loses its mind if they're not the jackpot of every storm all winter long. That same clique seems to want the title of the regional sub-forum to be DC/Balt and not "Mid-Atlantic." Accordingly, when someone from outside that region asks about their location, they're generally dismissed and made fun of. Period. Full Stop. If you want the ****ing region to be "DC/Balt" then change the god-damn name. John may write the checks, but you guys basically run the place and don't act like you don't. I've been around long enough to know how it operates. Don't call yourselves mid-atlantic and tell everyone south and west of Winchester to Fredericksburg to "**** off" and then act surprised when you're called out for being a dick. lol the only thing that would make this post better is if you challenged him to a duel at twenty paces at high noon. holy hell you're a trip, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Good luck down there! Hope you all get a good snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 lol the only thing that would make this post better is if you challenged him to a duel at twenty paces at high noon. holy hell you're a trip, dude. Yeah the hate and meltdown is strong with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Nice to see that RAH and AKQ are in solid agreement on this, lol. Screen Shot 2015-02-25 at 7.46.39 PM.png I am really surprised with the discrepancy in forecast accumulations in SE Va. I don't think I agree with the low totals. Even if we switch, the rates before that are crazy. You would think we would already be at over 8 inches when we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Yeah the hate and meltdown is strong with him. i've changed my opinion. because people south & west of winchester to fredericksburg are totally being told to **** off all the time and people keep lobbying to "change the god-damn name" to DC/Balt . you had to delete like 4,236 threads about that in the last several weeks, didn't you? i could be off by one or two, lost count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Returns in NC now look like a sleet/rain fest and AKQ is just not biting that we get rocked down here. Kind of hard to ignore all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 i've changed my opinion. because people south & west of winchester to fredericksburg are totally being told to **** off all the time and people keep lobbying to "change the god-damn name" to DC/Balt . you had to delete like 4,236 threads about that in the last several weeks, didn't you? i could be off by one or two, lost count. Y'all kiddies take it to banter. You're Infektin my snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Starting to get slightly nervous here. I don't see how we stay snow throughout this storm judging by the OBS to our south. Anybody with some good news?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Threat Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Temps holding stubbornly @ 35. Sure would feel better if the drop would resume with that massive slug coming at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Definitely feeling like the bust potential is high for this one in RIC. I know I'm being a pessimistic weenie, but RIC has been burned so many times it's hard not to be. Still thinking most of the banding sets up south of here and we end up with 2-4. Not bad all things considered. Williamsburg seems like a great spot to be tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portsmouth Weather Posted February 26, 2015 Share Posted February 26, 2015 Starting to get slightly nervous here. I don't see how we stay snow throughout this storm judging by the OBS to our south. Anybody with some good news?? I'm feeling better after the latest guidance. The NAM was a bit southeast and now had over 1.5 inches of precip for the HR. Also, wakefield has now gone back and upped expected totals. Bring on the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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