Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM looks delicious at 51 hours. Not overly amped like 6z, and some nice baja contributions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Weathertrends360.com is currently (9:30 AM on Jan 29th) forecasting the following amounts of snow for Feb 1st and 2nd, respectively: Dulles: 1.94 + 7.31 = 9.25 inches total Baltimore: 1.32 + 9.27 = 10.59 inches total Washington: 2.00+14.34 = 16.34 inches total What is their track record? Are they always bullish like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM looks delicious at 51 hours. Not overly amped like 6z, and some nice baja contributions. You are my favorite interloper/fairweather forum fan. Seriously! But yes...NAM looks decent so far..more confluence and cold press from up north. Hi eurojosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 What is their track record? Are they always bullish like that? I just started following them. Yesterday morning, their forecast was for an all rain event in DC on Feb 1-2. Just a minor tweak, I suppose . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You are my favorite interloper/fairweather forum fan. Seriously! But yes...NAM looks decent so far..more confluence and cold press from up north. Hi eurojosh. I actually like Highzenberg. He just wants someone in the region to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The nam gives us some wiggle room with the precip shield....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 69 looks nice... nice cold push from the 1047 H nosing into the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I actually like Highzenberg. He just wants someone in the region to win. I do too, always have even when people used to pick with him here. I'd much rather him here than someone 25 miles from philly. But anyway...NAM looks sort less amped than 6z, but this can be good. That cold/confluence up north means bidness...I think the idea of a cutter is greatly reduced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If you compare the panels between 75 hours at 12z and 81 at 6z, you can see the precip sort of "smooshed" down a bit. This is a good thing. That High is asserting itself a bit more. Let's hope it's not too much of a good thing in later panels/runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 QPF into DCA at 78.... entire column is good to go for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You are my favorite interloper/fairweather forum fan. Seriously! But yes...NAM looks decent so far..more confluence and cold press from up north. Hi eurojosh. Hi! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 snow breaks out at 81 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nam has closed slp over tn/ky border at the end of the run but confluence would likely keep it below us (extrapolation at its best) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nam has closed slp over tn/ky border at the end of the run but confluence would likely keep it below us (extrapolation at its best) Agree, it would get blocked and forced under us... but nevertheless, I like this NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Nam has closed slp over tn/ky border at the end of the run but confluence would likely keep it below us (extrapolation at its best) Was thinking the same, and it is less extrapolation when you already have another run kind of showing that (GFS). My question, what are the analogs for this? I can't pick off a surface low tracking west to east sliding south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Was thinking the same, and it is less extrapolation when you already have another run kind of showing that (GFS). My question, what are the analogs for this? I can't pick off a surface low tracking west to east sliding south of us. 5" storm a week before 1/25/00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The NAM extrapolation game is looking great. It would be an ideal setup for 6+ area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The NAM extrapolation game is looking great. It would be an ideal setup for 6+ area wide. yeah, I think once it gets closer to the coast, we'd see a storm develop better you can already see on the 84 hr. radar sim some convective stuff starting to develop and train north right off the coast of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 NAM output http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 5" storm a week before 1/25/00 I can see some similarities. Vort trajectory different though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 5" storm a week before 1/25/00 nah..that was rain for DC...and warm storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 RGEM looks pretty good in the NW @ 48 hours fwiw. btw I love you guys too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The one thing about the NAM that stood out was it popped slp over AR. 0z gfs did it over the AL/TN border. If we are going to get more than a 2-4/3-6, something like that needs to happen. 6z gfs was obviously weaker and less defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I can see some similarities. Vort trajectory different though. Allow me to be a weenie but the vort isn't all that different than 1/30/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 RGEM looks pretty good in the NW @ 48 hours fwiw. btw I love you guys too Never would have known you were from Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Does anyone here feel like this might turn into a big event? I feel like it might. Of course, I'm the one who thought last Friday night was gonna turn out snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Allow me to be a weenie but the vort isn't all that different than 1/30/10. I loved that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Allow me to be a weenie but the vort isn't all that different than 1/30/10. The precip shield is very different. Remember.....we had to will that precip north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Does anyone here feel like this might turn into a big event? I feel like it might. Of course, I'm the one who thought last Friday night was gonna turn out snowier. This one is interacting with the southern stream. It definitely has a chance to be juicy. Could be decent even if we don't get a closed circ to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 nah..that was rain for DC...and warm storm He's talking about 1/20/00... great snowstorm to start the blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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