mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro has 5-6/hr. panels of qpf for BWI totaling .27" it's basically an overrunning event and really, gfs is a glorified overrunning event with a weak low, which is fine so don't get me wrong I think the cutter is out because the pv has getten modeled stronger I do believe the extended periods of qpf on the Euro bode well and I expect to see the qpf numbers increase in light of its stubborn bias of keeping too much energy stuck in the sw USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would hope that no one complains too much about the differences between 0z and 6z. those are two nice runs you're new here? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I just wish that the 6z showed more snow than the 00z. 6z ensemble members for the GFS are more amped than 6z OP, I'd rather take our chances with a GGEM type solution than get a sheared out POS. That's just me though. It is never easy in this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It shows pretty much the same thing the 00Z showed. Thanks, PDIII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6z ensemble members for the GFS are more amped than 6z OP, I'd rather take our chances with a GGEM type solution than get a sheared out POS. That's just me though. It is never easy in this hobby. When you say more amped, do you mean they go northwest of us or stay under us but are wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would hope that no one complains too much about the differences between 0z and 6z. those are two nice runs QPF was reduced and the low is further north. Maybe a blip or 12Z will have us asking WTF once again. This is usually the point in time when things start to unravel with the models. I know we have some blocking so I won't complain too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6z ensemble members for the GFS are more amped than 6z OP, I'd rather take our chances with a GGEM type solution than get a sheared out POS. That's just me though. It is never easy in this hobby. I think, in the end, suppression depression will be a greater concern (though not necessarily the result) than warmer/rainier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 QPF was reduced and the low is further north. Maybe a blip or 12Z will have us asking WTF once again. This is usually the point in time when things start to unravel with the models. I know we have some blocking so I won't complain too much. 3+ days out from the storm. Waffling with the models is to be expected. The "look" is there for a storm to give us some winter precip. Finer details probably can't even be pinned down until later on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would hope that no one complains too much about the differences between 0z and 6z. those are two nice runs Word. Actual consistency. Was figuring 6z would be a sheared out mess. This is a really positive sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think, in the end, suppression depression will be a greater concern (though not necessarily the result) than warmer/rainier Yeah I completely agree. There is a ton of cold air around. I think a blown up cutter is off the table. A weak apps runner may actually work. Southern slider just north enough would do the trick too. So we shall see. Hopefully by this time tomorrow we are talking about when we will see the first WSW's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Any word on EPS? Waiting for the Bob Chill report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Any word on EPS? Waiting for the Bob Chill report. Looks quite supportive for a 2-5/3-6 event. Mslp track through NC and off the coast. Mean precip around .35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Overrunning is fine by me. The last few wound up storms haven't worked well for us. We traditionally do well with overrunning. It just doesn't seem to happen much anymore. Every storm has to be so complex now it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 new srefs, fwiw, look like they're on their way to a 0Z or 6Z GFS result imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 new srefs, fwiw, look like they're on their way to a 0Z or 6Z result imho sref looks beautiful to me, good start for the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 MTN (since its closer to you than BWI) 00z .7 qpf, 9.3" snow (13:1 to 14:1 ratios) 06z .56 qpf or 5.1" snow (8:1 to 9:1 ratios) Thank you for posting the MTN numbers K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thank you for posting the MTN numbers K. You are very welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 sref looks beautiful to me, good start for the 12z runs yeah, I meant to say 0Z/6Z GFS result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Obviously we hope for more but I'd have no trouble signing on the dotted line for a simple event bringing 2-5/3-6 followed by days of big cold to preserve snow pack. The simpler the better. There's upside mixed in there but too early to over analyze. Very few west tracks. I counted 3-4 or so. Today's 12z should hopefully seal the fate on not getting rain. I'm pretty stoked on this one so far. Like Phin said. Uncomplicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 There's upside mixed in there but too early to over analyze. Very few west tracks. I counted 3-4 or so. Today's 12z should hopefully seal the fate on not getting rain. I'm pretty stoked on this one so far. Like Phin said. Uncomplicated. Been telling some people the same thing...Pretty straight forward system. Of course models will vary, but I think they will have a better handle on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Why are we getting into exact amounts to the tenth for snow for a storm 3.5 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm not trying to be a downer but. Thats a serious HP and depending where the PV ends up there is still a very real possibility that this could slide under us. I would feel much better with a wound up solution. With that cold air in place I'll take my chances on a changeover to some ice or rain at the end if it trys to runs up the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Really nice trends with the last several model cycles. Lakes cutter solution seems to have really fallen out of favor. That's all I want at this point. I think the big question is how much energy comes out of the Baja low. That's probably the difference maker between a 1-3"/2-4" event and a bigger 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm not trying to be a downer but. Thats a serious HP and depending where the PV ends up there is still a very real possibility that this could slide under us. I would feel much better with a wound up solution. With that cold air in place I'll take my chances on a changeover to some ice or rain at the end if it runs up the Apps. Literally, the difference between you and I is location. What you are describing is often really good for you all out there along I-81, much much worse for us in the beltways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm not trying to be a downer but. Thats a serious HP and depending where the PV ends up there is still a very real possibility that this could slide under us. I would feel much better with a wound up solution. With that cold air in place I'll take my chances on a changeover to some ice or rain at the end if it runs up the Apps. Agreed, I would take my chances on a GGEM-esque event. The one thing I'm really hoping doesn't happen on today's 12z runs is we see a trend towards a strung out system ala EURO. Of course 2-5" wouldn't suck, but if we want 8-12" system we're going to have to lean towards the GGEM even if it puts us at a risk for a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I dont want any thing leas than 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I dont want any thing leas than 4 I would take anything less than 4, but I'm sorta with you on this. I'm tired of these nickle and dimes. Again, of course I'd gladly take a 2 to 4 and be happy. But I'm itching for something bigger at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would take anything less than 4, but I'm sorta with you on this. I'm tired of these nickle and dimes. Again, of course I'd gladly take a 2 to 4 and be happy. But I'm itching for something bigger at this point. I just want the grass completely covered... nothing poking through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would take anything less than 4, but I'm sorta with you on this. I'm tired of these nickle and dimes. Again, of course I'd gladly take a 2 to 4 and be happy. But I'm itching for something bigger at this point. Not sure 2-4 would make me happy at this point. Watch/warning is my bar - area-wide. This ain't December, and we are in our prime climo window for legit snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Weathertrends360.com is currently (9:30 AM on Jan 29th) forecasting the following amounts of snow for Feb 1st and 2nd, respectively: Dulles: 1.94 + 7.31 = 9.25 inches total Baltimore: 1.32 + 9.27 = 10.59 inches total Washington: 2.00+14.34 = 16.34 inches total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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