Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Dca is .35 over 30 hours. Not good for rates lol....it is over by like 9am....and doesn't really get going until the evening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Dca is .35 over 30 hours. Not good for rates At least it's below freezing and likely won't happen like that. It will end up being a slug and not drawn out. This doesnt look like a long duration event. Heck, who knows how it will go down. Gfs/ggen/euro all give us 3"+. Hardly a bad spot to be in. Just root for the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Looking at 96-102 it has that overunning feel. 2-4/3-5 without freeking out over development and track. Just a slug moving over top with cold air in place. I'm kinda feelin it. We haven't seen it for years but this could be one of those events we just watch radar and wait for the goods. No mountain larceny or ptype issues. I like the overrunning set up. A good slug of moisture coming into a strong high could really work out. Even though the qpf is light on this run keep in mind that when moisture attacks this kind of air mass it often produces good rates. Plus 850's are right around JB's magical -8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro tonight backs up GFS with the extreme cold. It has next Friday morning below zero in northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Right when I really wanted mild weather, Larry Cosgrove forecasts dual blocking into March. Reverse psychology really works. I REALLY wanted mild weather, and now the dual blocking is going to set up. I think I'll keep wishing for 80s and we will get a Little Ice Age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 00z GEFS ensembles at 102 and 108: 102 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro ens mean is tasty...supports the OP, but probably a few big members in there.....3-5" event for DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro ens mean is tasty...supports the OP, but probably a few big members in there.....3-5" event for DC metro Quick glance at the Euro individual ensembles, there are a couple members that have us getting near or a lil over over 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Control run looks even tastier, with a stronger low sliding by to our south, but I don't want to get banned for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm confused. The issue was brought up and I commented on it. At least the extrapolation was at least correct. Oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 06z GFS is further N/weaker with the vort/surface low. Looks like a slightly later phase overall, as well. I'd still take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Haven't broke it out all year... shocker.JPG #boom.JPG Now that's what a snow map should look like. No bullsh$t cut off... No sw ne oriented rain snow line. No screw job gradient. Just a good old fashion snow storm. Ji should be proud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 06 GFS backs off some on the totals but still wants to give me 5" which is too much for me in Arlington VA. However, the time to start panicking will be Saturday. Hmm... given that recent blown NWS forecast this week, there may still be hope for me even if the Saturday models want to dump on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 06 GFS backs off some on the totals but still wants to give me 5" which is too much for me in Arlington VA. However, the time to start panicking will be Saturday. Hmm... given that recent blown NWS forecast this week, there may still be hope for me even if the Saturday models want to dump on me. went from .78 to .63" at BWI I'll take that with those ratios prob 8"+ on 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I'm out...fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 For Snow Lovers - Snow Chances increase Monday though there is still uncertainty in Models. Chances of DCA seeing >1 inch 40% Chances of DCA seeing >4 inches 10% The NAO is predicted to go negative early next week. Along with it there is a chance that southern stream energy ejecting out of the SW will combine with a northern stream feature diving south from British Columbia to spread moisture over our area.. Bottom Line - Chances of seeing at least a few flakes Monday are better than average. There is a lot less confidence in intensity duration and exact track. One thing we can be confident of is that following this event, the area will likely see some of the coldest air of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think this is the first time all winter that two consecutive runs of a model have been fairly consistent. Persistent ridging out west and a mildly negative nao makes for a happy algorithm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 I think this is the first time all winter that two consecutive runs of a model have been fairly consistent. Persistent ridging out west and a mildly negative nao makes for a happy algorithm? I was just thinking that with regards to the 00z and 6z GFS. It's been a rare occurrence this winter for snowy scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I was just thinking that with regards to the 00z and 6z GFS. It's been a rare occurrence this winter for snowy scenarios. I just wish that the 6z showed more snow than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone see the 06z GEFS? I'm on the Metro with a crap signal of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS Cobb output for Westminster 00z .68 qpf or 8.5" snow (ratios range from 9:1 to 13:1) 06z .55 qpf or 5.6" snow (ratios range from 8:1 to 10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anyone see the 06z GEFS? I'm on the Metro with a crap signal of course It shows pretty much the same thing the 00Z showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6Z GFS looks beautiful for DC metro. I wish we could lock this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS Cobb output for Westminster 00z .68 qpf or 8.5" snow (ratios range from 9:1 to 13:1) 06z .55 qpf or 5.6" snow (ratios range from 8:1 to 10:1) Thanks. I am guessing if this comes together the ratios should be pretty good, as it should be plenty cold. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS Cobb output for DCA 00z .97 qpf or 13.2" snow (9:1 - 14:1 ratios) 06z .59 qpf or 5.8" snow (12:1 to 15:1 ratios) for IAD 00z .89 qpf or 14.2" snow (10:1 to 17:1 ratios) 06z .47 qpf or 5.3" snow (11:1 to 14:1 ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thanks. I am guessing if this comes together the ratios should be pretty good, as it should be plenty cold. Fingers crossed. MTN (since its closer to you than BWI) 00z .7 qpf, 9.3" snow (13:1 to 14:1 ratios) 06z .56 qpf or 5.1" snow (8:1 to 9:1 ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 6.3" at BWI for the 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 MTN (since its closer to you than BWI) 00z .7 qpf, 9.3" snow (13:1 to 14:1 ratios) 06z .56 qpf or 5.1" snow (8:1 to 9:1 ratios) Even better. I was just splitting the difference between Westminster and DCA. Def fingers crossed - hope the GFS is leading the way on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 BWI 00z .69 qpf or 8.6" snow (7:1 to 13:1 ratios) 06z .60 qpf or 6.3" snow (10:1 to 18:1 ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I would hope that no one complains too much about the differences between 0z and 6z. those are two nice runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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