Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I hope my rain is as cold as possible without it being snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I hope my rain is as cold as possible without it being snow. Yeah I dont want the ground to thaw. I want that gooey pudding layer to form on top and big puddles. I live for that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I see what you are saying, but I dont look at it as a low pushing into high pressure, but rather the high pressure is moving and the low moves toward where the high was. This is not a strong high, and there is nothing to keep it in place so it slides. Also in this particular setup, we have that damn ridge off the SE coast which also helps keep the low on a more NW track. That was just as big a red flag for me as anything. It was always there, but its strength/position varied run to run, and of course the position and amplitude of the ridge in the west has influence on that. Agree. HP wasn't as anchored as first thought. But seeing NYC having big mixing problems and even potentially sne mix is probably more a factor of the lp being stronger than first thought. 996 over central OH is impressive. That was never even a thought just a few days ago. If it was sub 1k the track would surely be further south. Still over or above us but areas from phl north would do much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Agree. HP wasn't as anchored as first thought. But seeing NYC having big mixing problems and even potentially sne mix is probably more a factor of the lp being stronger than first thought. 996 over central OH is impressive. That was never even a thought just a few days ago. If it was sub 1k the track would surely be further south. Still over or above us but areas from phl north would do much better. Yes the low is stronger than first modeled for sure. Having it stay relatively weak as you said would have given us a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I've only been casually watching since I bailed yesterday morning but this is a pretty good lesson for all of us (not just our sub). We'll get another setup like this again might be years down the road or later this month but the lesson is a good one. Where the slp forms is obviously very important. But also closely monitoring h5 height trends and strength of storm. The run over run trend of increasing heights a little each run made it easy for me to bail. It wasn't coming back no matter what. A 1004 low or something similar would still be a decent hit from at least Philly north. This thing ended up so much stronger than first thought. No problem pushing right into hp to the north. Can you give a crash course on how high/low heights affect the track of vorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yes the low is stronger than first modeled for sure. Having it stay relatively weak as you said would have given us a better shot. If you think about it, everything that could have gone wrong inside of 4 days did go wrong. It's comical. Can't say that about the whole month though. The first clipper did quite well. Even though losing the last two is a bit of a sting, this month has been more normal around here than abnormal all things considered. As much as I track stuff, I don't really get that annoyed when things go wrong. When I bail I get over it quick and move on. There are only 2 storms that got to me since I joined eastern. Boxing day sucked bad but it was so early in the year that I knew more chances would happen. March 2013 was the granddaddy of them all. Chasing a nasty snow drought on the heels of back to back disasters....late in the year....last gasp....heavy snow when I went to bed....I was literally a little nauseous when it became clear that we're done. Ooph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 996 over central OH is impressive. That was never even a thought just a few days ago. The crazy thing is that it actually was. Here's the 06z GFS from Wednesday: And here is the 18z from today. The big questions in my mind are what made the models jump south, and why have they been so slow to come back up to basically where they were earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Can you give a crash course on how high/low heights affect the track of vorts? I'd be glad to. On my phone. I'll put together a multi run gif animation tomorrow. The key is to look at height lines overhead and to the north and not just where the vort is digging. Every tick north with confluence is a hint that that things aren't going the right. Same goes in reverse when hoping suppression is relaxing. Orientation is important too. Downhill means there's a wall. Uphill means there's a highway. Flat means the low can grind north but not easy or quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Very little change between 18z and 00z RGEM, from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If you think about it, everything that could have gone wrong inside of 4 days did go wrong. It's comical. Can't say that about the whole month though. The first clipper did quite well. Even though losing the last two is a bit of a sting, this month has been more normal around here than abnormal all things considered. As much as I track stuff, I don't really get that annoyed when things go wrong. When I bail I get over it quick and move on. There are only 2 storms that got to me since I joined eastern. Boxing day sucked bad but it was so early in the year that I knew more chances would happen. March 2013 was the granddaddy of them all. Chasing a nasty snow drought on the heels of back to back disasters....late in the year....last gasp....heavy snow when I went to bed....I was literally a little nauseous when it became clear that we're done. Ooph. Good point about Jan. Its been cold. And snowfall prob isn't far from average most places. I have 5" for the month and I probably average 6 or something. Of course I got pretty much zilch in Dec so I was counting on a big January to make up for it ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Frigid cold then rain then cold the slop then super cold then rain then cold then sleet slop then cold then more rain then real cold. Wash thoroughly rinse and repeat. It's old. Can we have a week of mild weather please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Frigid cold then rain then cold the slop then super cold then rain then cold then sleet slop then cold then more rain then real cold. Wash thoroughly rinse and repeat. It's old. Can we have a week of mild weather please? It would sum up this region well if we had a torch day of 75 degrees and sunny, followed by 24" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I guess the whole better sampled thing is crap since this storm keeps trending north every set of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 gfs bringing the +10c line closer to our area. torch baby torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Shorts and sandals for the game?will feel like we are in AZ watching the game gfs bringing the +10c line closer to our area. torch baby torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow, this has become hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wow, this has become hideous. no typical for maryand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If I see 1 sleet pellet I'm calling victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Must say...that's a pretty unimpressive radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 radar shows snow overhead, humidity is 70 percent, but precip will hold off until late afternoon with rain we're used to this nonsense whatever happened to us getting a half inch of slush then getting five inches of rain we are truly shyte out of luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Too bad Weatherbug radar = weenie radar. We would be snowing any sec. Suffering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 WWA issued. We are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Must say...that's a pretty unimpressive radar lol what were you expecting exactly? Storm is over IL. Heavy snow moving towards Chicago. Radar will be juiced up by evening east of the mountains for the brief sleet-fest before going over to cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Too bad Weatherbug radar = weenie radar. We would be snowing any sec. Suffering... It will always overdo light precip areas, just like any other composite radar. Composite radars love showing low clouds/virga as light precip. Never use composite radar if you're trying to pinpoint precip onset... use the local 88D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 It will always overdo light precip areas, just like any other composite radar. Composite radars love showing low clouds/virga as light precip. Never use composite radar if you're trying to pinpoint precip onset... use the local 88D. ...but use composite to feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Too bad Weatherbug radar = weenie radar. We would be snowing any sec. Suffering... Yeah not sure why people even use that. Its awful. I only use the NWS NEXRAD doppler, Base reflectivity for winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Charlottesville should be getting light snow, they are getting 20 dBZ returns right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ...but use composite to feel better lol yeah always nice to have the radar showing it doing something overhead when nothing is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Had a low of 15. Already up to 24 with virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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