Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 noise. The track is almost identical. Besides ice sucks. Let's just hope this goes far enough north not to tease us at the last minute only to be let down when it's just another crap event. I should have made clear I was referring to DC's far NW suburbs on the front end...I'm not paying attention to up north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm just rooting for NYC to get screwed.. GFS moved the right direction. I want everyone except Wisconsin to get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I want everyone except Wisconsin to get screwed. They never get screwed. Not sure its even possible. Perpetual snow of some sort even if its not always major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Have no fear. JB said we are going to have heavy wrap around snow on the back side lmao. Dude can predict snow in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings are nearly all rain at KIAD tomorrow. BL is just overwhelmed with that warm advection and with the low deepening it will just scour that cold air out quicker. You have to go north to KMRB to get freezing rain tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Have no fear. JB said we are going to have heavy wrap around snow on the back side lmao. Dude can predict snow in July. That guy is a piece of work. He knows climo says we have 7/10 winters below avg snow with a couple blockbusters to keep our avg afloat yet he predicts us to be above normal 8/10 years. Then every year it's the same crap. Somewhere in the country verifies, usually NYC, and all he talks about is that area. His individual storm forecasts are worse. He literally picks the snowiest model from each run and posts it's snow map designed to show too much snow and calls that his forecast. How in the world does that not work. I'm shocked he busts high with methodology like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 18z NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings are nearly all rain at KIAD tomorrow. BL is just overwhelmed with that warm advection and with the low deepening it will just scour that cold air out quicker. You have to go north to KMRB to get freezing rain tomorrow night. Good. Rain much preferred over slop. I wish we could go warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm just rooting for NYC to get screwed.. GFS moved the right direction.our entire winter happiness has been based on how new york gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 our entire winter happiness has been based on how new york gets screwed The weather has made monsters out of us all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18z NAM and GFS Bufkit soundings are nearly all rain at KIAD tomorrow. BL is just overwhelmed with that warm advection and with the low deepening it will just scour that cold air out quicker. You have to go north to KMRB to get freezing rain tomorrow night. It is times like these that remind us to be objective. Wish casting is a bad habit but enticing because some many of us can't get quite enough snow. We should remember to be appreciative of objective, non-biased meteorology even though it isn't always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That guy is a piece of work. He knows climo says we have 7/10 winters below avg snow with a couple blockbusters to keep our avg afloat yet he predicts us to be above normal 8/10 years. Then every year it's the same crap. Somewhere in the country verifies, usually NYC, and all he talks about is that area. His individual storm forecasts are worse. He literally picks the snowiest model from each run and posts it's snow map designed to show too much snow and calls that his forecast. How in the world does that not work. I'm shocked he busts high with methodology like that. He's not held accountable for his forecasts. He's really a weather 'personality.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Flying into martins as we miss out on yet another storm a few days ago. The agony of life in the mid-atlantic as a snow lover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 21z SREF is a torch for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 21z SREF is a torch for our area and then a flash freeze I think we know the routine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 21z SREF is a torch for our areaNot just our area. I'm sure they have people freaking out up the coast. Not 1" in NYC turns Boston to rain for a lot of the storm. Unreal that a mid Atlantic snowstorm 36 hours ago is now a buffalo to killington Vermont special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 better cad this run on the nam than last fwliw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 image.jpgimage.jpg better than getting a slug of freezing rain IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I've only been casually watching since I bailed yesterday morning but this is a pretty good lesson for all of us (not just our sub). We'll get another setup like this again might be years down the road or later this month but the lesson is a good one. Where the slp forms is obviously very important. But also closely monitoring h5 height trends and strength of storm. The run over run trend of increasing heights a little each run made it easy for me to bail. It wasn't coming back no matter what. A 1004 low or something similar would still be a decent hit from at least Philly north. This thing ended up so much stronger than first thought. No problem pushing right into hp to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 National radar looks pretty crazy. Not often you see that much moisture coming out of the Midwest like that. I would be excited if I didn't know anything about weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 First time I can say that I've seen a storm with sw flow at all levels produce a rain shadow effect east of the mnts. I guess the low is too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Winter weather advisories up for northern tier counties. 1-2 inches of snow followed by less than 0.1 in. of ice. Seems pretty reasonable especially after seeing the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 better cad this run on the nam than last fwliw Yup, the snow threat is gone, but given what we've seen so far this season, there are certainly short-term trends to monitor in terms of surface temps tomorrow evening. I would say the past Thursday evening sleet-blitz and resulting iciness was not verbatim indicated by the models..... it's decently cold tonight too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Winter weather advisories up for northern tier counties. 1-2 inches of snow followed by less than 0.1 in. of ice. Seems pretty reasonable especially after seeing the 0z NAM. Kinda silly to issue warnings along county lines, IMO. Why not along lat lines like svr storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Tonight's NAM is so warm for late tomorrow night. Kudos to everyone that rode the north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Kinda silly to issue warnings along county lines, IMO. Why not along lat lines like svr storms? Don't really know. Maybe to just leave more margin for error or something to do with school systems possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 better cad this run on the nam than last fwliw I just checked the soundings IMBY. If I'm reading this right, 00z NAM doesn't get the surface above 33 degrees by 12z Monday. The 18z NAM had the surface at about 38 degrees at that time. According to the maps on TropicalTidbits, at 12z Monday there are some places in our region at which the 2m temps dropped by 8-9 degrees from the 18z NAM to the 00z NAM. So I'm still paying attention. This could get messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Nam shows below freezing for the northern tier counties thru 10pm tomorrow but I bet cad holds longer ..always does . 17 here currently. Much more CAD this run of NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 18 degrees here and clear. Will be interesting to see how much temps recover during the daylight hours tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I've only been casually watching since I bailed yesterday morning but this is a pretty good lesson for all of us (not just our sub). We'll get another setup like this again might be years down the road or later this month but the lesson is a good one. Where the slp forms is obviously very important. But also closely monitoring h5 height trends and strength of storm. The run over run trend of increasing heights a little each run made it easy for me to bail. It wasn't coming back no matter what. A 1004 low or something similar would still be a decent hit from at least Philly north. This thing ended up so much stronger than first thought. No problem pushing right into hp to the north. I see what you are saying, but I dont look at it as a low pushing into high pressure, but rather the high pressure is moving and the low moves toward where the high was. This is not a strong high, and there is nothing to keep it in place so it slides. Also in this particular setup, we have that damn ridge off the SE coast which also helps keep the low on a more NW track. That was just as big a red flag for me as anything. It was always there, but its strength/position varied run to run, and of course the position and amplitude of the ridge in the west has influence on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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