mappy Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's funny coming from someone who usually only posts "woo! WSW for me for 6"!" In the model threads. Ok. I'll just stop posting all together, some of you will very much like that. **** you all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think there are a lot of folks in here who will be happy with a couple-few inches of snow with the way this winter has gone. Models still showing that for a lot of folks in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 there's always a "glimmer" of hope until it happens.Blizzard off 66 proved that!! Storm complete surprise!! Since you and I live pretty damn close, I'll drink the "glimmer" kool-aid for 24 more hours. Why not? I definitely have seen plenty of weather surprises my lifetime as well. Anyway--hope this thread can get back on track at least for a while longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Last nights ggem also started the low about 150 miles south this afternoon. That's a huge error for. 24 hours. So we will know very soon if it was on to anything. My guess it corrects at 12z. I'm going full weenie and stating the 12Z NAM shows a robust convergence setting up at 500 mb based upon the 500 mb system over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 You seem to be taking this all pretty seriously. Just pointing out how many of you are loltastic. Keep on keeping on, captain clownshoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ok. I'll just stop posting all together, some of you will very much like that. **** you all Please stick around...could be the only stickage we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 It is frequently noted that CAD isn't modeled well. What will easily scour out this particular air mass? the trough axis is too far west so as this amps the flow is out of the south ahead of it. We don't really have good confluence ahead of it to resist. That said there are other factors that could help some. The antecedent air mass is cold so if we can get decent precip in dynamic cooling will help for a time. That alone can set up some incentive for the low to want to jump to the coast further south rather then just blast through a cold air pool along and east of the mountains. It's a long shot everything is heading the other way right now.Eta: I suspect if we can get this to game time still close we will see things trend colder and in our favor in the now cast time range fir the reasons above. I just have doubts this will be close enough to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How often are we in the 20s one day, warm to 33 to get rain the next day, and drop back to the lower 20s the day after that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's funny coming from someone who usually only posts "woo! WSW for me for 6"!" In the model threads. Her posts are still 100000x better than most others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Maybe cmc is onto something with the cad. Current snow cover over the Northeast and upper mid west/ great Lakes region is expansive. I doubt the shallow cold will erode quickly but only time will tell. I'm leaning to a sleet frz rainsenario myself for thsee parts. Full weenie mode, ramming speed! I'm full weenie me self at this moment. Clench the buttocks, cross the fingers and toes, put out a cookie snack for the snow and wear the PJs inside out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How often are we in the 20s one day, warm to 33 to get rain the next day, and drop back to the lower 20s the day after that? We are better at getting into the 50s the day before a 20s snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I've been more right than wrong this year...just sayin...my dart board has been money!! Remember...dumbest model wins...and I'm pretty dumb....for a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 the trough axis is too far west so as this amps the flow is out of the south ahead of it. We don't really have good confluence ahead of it to resist. That said there are other factors that could help some. The antecedent air mass is cold so if we can get decent precip in dynamic cooling will help for a time. That alone can set up some incentive for the low to want to jump to the coast further south rather then just blast through a cold air pool along and east of the mountains. It's a long shot everything is heading the other way right now. Eta: I suspect if we can get this to game time still close we will see things trend colder and in our favor in the now cast time range fir the reasons above. I just have doubts this will be close enough to matter. The 500 mb out to hr. 15 has a massive complex from 11 o'clock to 5 o'clock; if it slows down, we get a snowier solution. This ain't over (Max weenie power).The NAM at hr. 24 says keep hope alive. N. MD could be snow to sleet to fr. rain to back side flurries. maybe....no liquid rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wouldn't go that far but trying to look at current obs that are often overlooked. How many coffees have you drank this am?1.5This storm is perfect for ween-if-ication. Let us seize the self-delusional moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12Z NAM AT 30 is south with the LP . High is also stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 How often are we in the 20s one day, warm to 33 to get rain the next day, and drop back to the lower 20s the day after that? WAY too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 The 06z NAM sees a lot of sleet / freezing rain for northern MD. The 12z is running now. 06z RGEM sees snow, but not as far south as the GGEM. wow from southern slider to lakes cutter, oh man doesn't get any better than that. amazing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 WAY too often. winter of 94 comes to mind!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think NAM went a little south. 12z (now) 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think NAM went a little south.but it was the most north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 but it was the most north NAM lead the trend before I'm grasping for straws though. I'll hop on the Leesburg train for more sleet then we expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 High is still stronger resulting in stronger confluence. If the high to the SE weaker in later runs this will have no choice but to go SE even more. But this run is definitely south with the precip shield and low. Not by much but its south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Slightly colder rain on the NAM. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM actually would suggest hours 36-42 could have something frozen for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 High is still stronger resulting in stronger confluence. If the high to the SE weaker in later runs this will have no choice but to go SE even more. But this run is definitely south with the precip shield and low. Not by much but its south. out of curiosity what is the mb reading of the high in canada and se? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is south and went Miller B. if the SE high is any any weaker we are in businesses. Up north things are getting stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Every 25 miles counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well, with the in-situ CAD potential given the antecedent arctic airmass, and deep snowpack in the NE, I've always though the models, including the NAM, were underplaying the surface layer wet bulb potential somewhat. I would also think a weak SLP would take a path of lesser resistance, i.e. where there is no snow on the ground. Many of us mentioned the other day that it was just a matter of time when the NAM (in particular) began to trend south again, after getting newer and newer sampling of sensible weather in the BL to our north. Surprise surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I confirm that the NAM did come just a touch south and it is a bit colder especially over the M/D line. High to the north is stronger. Let's see what the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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